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  #21  
Old 04-04-2007
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Data

Scientists don't only depend on reported data. For instance, ice core samples with atmospheric bubbles can accurately indicate the atmospheric constitution going back tens of thousands of years. In recent years the CO2 content has spiked beyond every concievable natural "cycle". The historical correlation between planetary average temperatures, sea levels and CO2 content is very tight, leading to one conclusion only.
Disclaiming human impact on the atmosphere and global weather today, is similar to denying the role of evolution in shaping species and believing the Earth is 6000 years old. If that's your belief, well, then we'll never be able to have a debate...

MM
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  #22  
Old 04-04-2007
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magnus - I'm not aware of anyone who is skeptical of the global warming issue as presented by those who feel it is a crisis beyond debate, that deny man has an effect on the enviorment and climate. What is up for debate is the degree of it, and what, if anything, should be done about it. There is a growing body of evidence of solar system wide warming that indicates the sun plays a much larger role than has previously been acknowledged. To blindly accept that man, and man alone is the cause of the current warming trend, is just as narrow minded as the example you use. At present, there are too many contradictions of previous findings, and an inability to apply forecast models that are accurate when used backwards to known data, for anyone to state with any real certainty, what will happen in the future.
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  #23  
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Hi John

I totally agree with you that forecast models are inaccurate, especially if it pertains to precise short-term predictions like the number of hurricanes this season etc. However I also notice the contradictions in your own statements. If we then agree that it is "a crises beyond debate" and not deny that man has an effect on the environment and climate, and we realize the possible (even if not guaranteed) implications of that realization, it becomes irresponsible and unethical to continue harping on the inherent uncertainties of the science. We can acknowledge the areas of uncertainty without encouraging the "ostridge crowd" who have their heads in the sand. The facts of the matter point to human induced changes in the planet's atmosphere, global weather changes and oceanic acidification (with absolutely catastrophic implications for all invertebrate life and by implication the entire oceanic ecosystem). The changes in the atmosphere and specifically CO2 are astronomical if looked at on timelines of millions of years and if correlated to planetary conditions it is very worrying.

By the way, those who have not yet seen Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth", should do so.

Whether man is or isn't ALONE responsible for the current trend is irrelevant. We are at the very least - contributing. And we're hastening this planet on a course of ultimate catastrophe.

I watched the movie: "Sharkwater" with my daughters this weekend. I walked out of there sad to the core. My respect for our species was severely shaken.

We are rapists and plunderers of this planet. But we don't have to be - that's is the dim light I can see.

Magnus

Last edited by magnusmurphy; 04-04-2007 at 11:04 PM.
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Old 04-04-2007
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I totally agree with you that forecast models are inaccurate

models are hardly right 3 days out and beyond that they are way off..

and all your man made global warming arguments are produced by you guessed it ,VERY LONG TERM MODELS...which means even a greater chance of being wrong..
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We are rapists and plunderers? Sheeesh, you make us sound like locusts.
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Old 04-05-2007
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Magnus...the only problem with historical ice core data is that the rise in CO2 averages 800 years AFTER global warming begins. Looks more like an effect than a cause to me.
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Old 04-05-2007
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Doesn't matter if it's a natural cycle or something we have generated - it's happening. Two choices, we can help it along or try to slow it down. We know that tossing all kinds of crap into an ecosystem is a bad idea. (Set up a terrarium and then drop in a half-full can of coke if you need your own personal show and tell).

The earth is just one big, carefully balanced ecosystem that is getting a bit unbalanced right now. We can stop doing some of the really bad things so that our grandchildren don't have to move underground, or we can ignore things and hope they somehow mutate really quickly.

Either way - it's not really going to affect us too much. 'Specially up here in Canada - it's the cat's ass - we'll be sailing ten months a year in Ontario soon I guess the Southern States and most of Africa and ALL of Autralia will have a problem but "Hey - so what ? I don't live there."

Those of us alive today who think that way, and can't see much past our own navels will find it a little too inconvenient to walk to the corner store, or turn off a light when they're not in the room.

The rest of us are compromising a little more than we otherwise might to make up for their indolence. Warning: sooner or later we are going to run out of patience with your self-centered laziness...
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The problem as I see it is that we are at a turning point in history. If the global warming model is correct, and we're the cause, we have two choices: We either ignore it and do nothing. Our children's children inherit a disaster and we go down history as the most selfish, hedonistic generation in all of history (we had a choice remember). Or we change our ways and mitigate (it's too late to stop it) the devastation - especially on the poorest people on earth. On the other hand, if the model is wrong and we act, we end up changing our society for the better anyway, leading to less smog, better and healthier ecosystems. How can we lose? I guess if a big SUV is your passion, you might lose that priviledge...big deal.

Sometimes I think the naysayers are simply afraid of change. It's not really that they don't believe the science, it that they don't want to believe it. There is a difference. This is true in many areas where science has made inroads into the mythology that has sustained not only certain belief systems, but whole civilizations. Including our own.

As for being locusts, I think Captain Watson of the Seashepard Society summed it up beautifully: "We're a bunch of primates out of control".

Magnus

Last edited by magnusmurphy; 04-05-2007 at 12:33 AM.
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Old 04-05-2007
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just wrong Magnus...I simply don't not believe YOUR science. I have lots of science on my side too...thousands of scientists....there's a whole bunch of guys from the 70's with big degrees that I'm not counting either...the ones that told me about global winter.
IF globalwarming is taking place it is part of the natural 1500 year cycle and man has little or nothing to do with it and certainly nothing we can do about it. The whole deal is an ECONOMIC scam for the politicos, 3rd world, our enemies and the pseudo-science gloom and doomers that make their living off of the fears they instill in the gullible.
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Old 04-05-2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnusmurphy

We are at the very least - contributing.

If you would've said " we are contributing the least, I could have found something to agree with you on.

I rented AL Gores movie and he owes me 3 bucks, I found it to be really childish and on the level of a elementary to midddle school science lecture film, I was waiting for sponage Bob to come popping out; How it won best documentry only goes to show the extremely leftist Hollywood mindset.


Cam is correct in saying that the geological record and data from ice cores shows higher temperatures actually precede higher carbon dioxide levels by about 800 years. also, most of the 20th century's warming occurred before 1940, while most of the century's greenhouse gas emissions occurred after 1940 and when manmade greenhouse gas emissions soared in the post World War II industrial boom, global temperatures declined until the mid-1970s, leading to the global cooling concerns at that time.

And, do you really want to be quoting Paul Watson, it's like putting a label on your forehead that says " I'm a radical eco terrorist "; He is actually one of several out of control primates that need to be caged, as a matter of fact, the last I heard, he was on the lamb from the Costa Rican goverment who had charged him with attemped murder of a local fisherman.
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