2007 Huricanes

Freesail99 · #1 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

I just saw on the news they are predicting 17 named hurricanes for this year.

Insails · #2 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

With the ENSO cycle trending toward La Nina that is possible to have 17 named storms..The key to this season will be the Bermuda high should it set up South of Bermuda this year with less shear due to La Nina conditions then heads up Florida ,Gulf and East Coast..I predict 15 named storms this season for the Atlantic basin..

Also the last few years we have seen an influence from the SAL(Saharan Air Layer) or dust get induced into the tropical atlantic drying the atmoshere and causing LESS Cape Verde storms..I imagine a few anchored in the Bahama's last year spent some time dusting

sailingdog · #3 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

Umm.. 17 isn't that bad... consider 2005, where they had 26 named storms and IIRC three were Cat 5 storms... and the storms went into December... That's bad.

PBzeer · #4 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

It seems, if the past few years are any indication, that hurricane prediction is a rather inexact endevour, beset as it is with a vertible plethora of variables, any one of which could significantly alter the estimates. Notwithstanding, of course, the fact that fewer hurricanes isn't very newsworthy in light of the current clamor for adverse weather trends due to man-made global warming.

Zanshin · #5 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

I've been hearing and reading a lot about this season's hurricane season. If I need to keep my boat in the Caribbean then perhaps this is not the year to take my chances at putting the boat on the hard in the BVI. Perhaps even Trinidad isn't far enough south, either.

Insails · #6 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

Trinidad would be OK..the closer you are to the equator the weaker the storm will be,,
Hurricanes do better when they move farther than 5 degrees north of the ITCZ(Inter tropical convergence zone)..the Corialis effect is needed to help spin up larger storms ..You have less corialis effect the closer to the equator you get..Reason The ABC Islands dont see as many intense storms..

Valiente · #7 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by PBzeer

It seems, if the past few years are any indication, that hurricane prediction is a rather inexact endevour, beset as it is with a vertible plethora of variables, any one of which could significantly alter the estimates. Notwithstanding, of course, the fact that fewer hurricanes isn't very newsworthy in light of the current clamor for adverse weather trends due to man-made global warming.

Perhaps, but while large persistent events like El Nino/La Nina can reduce or disperse hurricanes that approach the U.S. coast, they have very noticeable drought/flood effects throughout the Pacific that are less well reported because few of the locals are soccer moms in SUVs.

Ask an Australian about global warming, El Nino and drought. They are having a hell of a time, as is Indonesia. It's not that this stuff isn't happening, but that it is severely underreported in the North American media. Listen to DW or BBC World Service and it's a different story...no theory required.

Insails · #8 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

as far as man made global warming...who knows ,I tend to believe more in natural cycles myself...After all the dinosaurs did live and it was warmer then than now and an ice age killed them...So cycles have always been here and always will be..We cant and don't have the data to prove man made global warming..We have really only had the technology and computers the last 40 years and you you sure cant take million year cycles and predict them with only 40 years real data..

SailorMitch · #9 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

Just read an article yesterday about how bad the sand storms in the Sahara were last year and how that contributed to the lower number of storms in the Atlantic. The dust in the air keeps shades the water keeping it cooler as Insails points out. And as a guy on the Weather Channel said on a show not long ago, they can't even predict weather 5 days into the future, so why put much stock in these hurricane predictions?

camaraderie · #10 (**permalink**) 04-03-2007

Zan...Trinidad has NEVER had a hurricane...on the other hand....I would make reservations quickly as it does tend to fill up. If you are gona stay with the boat...I'd suggest Grenada then leave for Trini (80M) at first notice of a storm . If you need to Leave her, then I'd do that in Trini though I think Bill Trayfours has had good luck somewhere in the BVI...you might PM him to find out where. If you decide to head to Trini...this will help:
http://www.boatersenterprise.com/whi...ry%20Chart.pdf