Join Date: Jun 2006
Thanked 2 Times in 2 Posts
Rep Power: 13
I like the fact that the forecasting and the models have improved to the point that hurricanes can in essence be predicted before they even form. I don't like the fact that the steering factors are so numerous as to make picking a storm track just about impossible. If you are bobbing about in the Caribbean, you have a nervous week of prepping and waiting, with no clear direction as to whether you should run to sea or tough it out. It's too chaotic to get the track right. Things are improving, but there's still a lot of variance, even at the 24 hour stage.
Of course, predicting a big hurricane for mid-August can be done on the basis of statistics, not active forecasting, but I've noticed the temperature gradients in the Western Atlantic this year and have thought "damn, there is a lot of hurricane chow in that water."