Weather Warning for Atlantic sailors.

[SallyH]

A wake up call for the Atlantic.

Quote:
Good morning!

We are going to shorten this as the info that has been
posted in my past synopses pretty much paints the
picture for the season, with increased activity on its
way, and a good chance at an above average season.

Disturbance 90L continues on a basic westerly course
this morning, moving near 15-20 mph. I expect this
motion to continue for the next 48-72 hours, with a
possible slight tug just north of due west. 90L is
still under the influence of some easterly wind shear.
We should start to see some better development I
believe, once this disturbance gets west of 35W
longitude. This does have the potential to become a
tropical depression in the next 36-48 hours, and I
will be monitoring this closely as it continues across
the Atlantic basin. The majority of the computer
models bring this to hurricane strength within the
next 4-7 days, with 2 of the Global Models showing
slower strengthening. Model guidance has been
basically split on forecast movement, with the
extremes being the GFS (Global Forecast System)
showing a basic straight westward path eventually into
Mexico, and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium
range Weather Forecasting) showing a more WNW to a
short NW jog, then back W to WNW putting the system a
few hundred miles east of the northern Bahamas. Keep
in mind that things can change as far as steering, and
the further out in time the models go, the less
accurate they can be. The models probably won't have
a real good handle on this until this system develops
better. I am however not inclined at this time to buy
the GFS solution of a straight westerly track, but I
do feel it will gain some northerly component over
time. On that note, I feel it is too far south though
to make a classic "recurve" from what I've seen this
morning in the steering currents forecast maps.
End Quote

Full synopsis report HERE
This could develop into something pretty nasty I think.

[camaraderie]

Sally...Chris Parker this AM says the same. He adds that conditions are more favorable in the Eastern Caribe for this being a major storm than any in the last 2 years. He predicts that track will take it around the NORTHERN leewards and VI's if it does form and is looking at FRIDAY as the day. Obviously, this is way in advance...but it bears watching.

[Valiente]

I like the fact that the forecasting and the models have improved to the point that hurricanes can in essence be predicted before they even form. I don't like the fact that the steering factors are so numerous as to make picking a storm track just about impossible. If you are bobbing about in the Caribbean, you have a nervous week of prepping and waiting, with no clear direction as to whether you should run to sea or tough it out. It's too chaotic to get the track right. Things are improving, but there's still a lot of variance, even at the 24 hour stage.

Of course, predicting a big hurricane for mid-August can be done on the basis of statistics, not active forecasting, but I've noticed the temperature gradients in the Western Atlantic this year and have thought "damn, there is a lot of hurricane chow in that water."

[runexe]

Originally Posted by Valiente

I like the fact that the forecasting and the models have improved to the point that hurricanes can in essence be predicted before they even form. I don't like the fact that the steering factors are so numerous as to make picking a storm track just about impossible. If you are bobbing about in the Caribbean, you have a nervous week of prepping and waiting, with no clear direction as to whether you should run to sea or tough it out. It's too chaotic to get the track right. Things are improving, but there's still a lot of variance, even at the 24 hour stage.

Yes, and those of us living on the islands are wondering how much we should spend picking up extra water/canned goods/candles this week. It's at least nice to know we should be planning a trip to the store though.

[arbarnhart]

Murphy may swing it north as I have reservations for 3 nights starting Friday on the NC Coast...

[Valiente]

Originally Posted by runexe

Yes, and those of us living on the islands are wondering how much we should spend picking up extra water/canned goods/candles this week. It's at least nice to know we should be planning a trip to the store though.

Yes, that's a definite advantage. I'd rather be sewing together fresh chafe gear on a Tuesday and then not need it than be trying to find waxed thread on a Thursday night when it was already blowing 30 knots.

Good luck.

[camaraderie]

Sunday nite update...Parker now says Cat1 on Thursday nite in northern leewards but other models have it affecting the windwards and as much as a Cat3. He advises that this will become clearer tomorrow and Tuesday but those needing prep time anywhere in the chain should start tomorrow. He does not rule out Bahamas and East Coast hit later just yet...but thinks liklier track is towards the Yucatan.

[SallyH]

Update:

.... Not trying to alarm anyone...but with the current (key
word, current) data, I would advise all interests in
the Caribbean, and from Fla. to Texas... to keep a
watchful eye on this system.

Full updated synopsishttp://www.cruiserlog.com/forums/index.php?showforum=32

[sailingdog]

Thanks SallyH.

[Cruisingdad]

I have always been a fan of this site (NOAA). I don't watch the public advisories as much as the discussions. I would urge all sailors to review this info where possible. You may not undersatnd all of it... but if you can start to educate yourself on it you will be better prepared than most.

Just my opinions.

Here is the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/131458.shtml