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  #1  
Old 09-04-2007
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Quickie Weather alert for East Coasties:

Looks like a low is forming off the NE bahamas and several forecasters and models are thinking it could rather rapidly rise to hurricane strength and strike the US East coast with models showing no agreement as to where.
Since if this development does occur, there will be very little time to prepare, I am posting just to let eveyone know to keep a close watch on forecasts over the next couple of days as this thing spins up.
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Old 09-04-2007
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Thanks Cam.. I've been keeping an eye on that since this morning.
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Old 09-04-2007
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If you follow the hurricane center alerts for Felix, you can find this thing's progress (and the progress of the three tropical waves behind Felix) at the "Marine weather discussion" page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

If you know how to figure out a synoptic chart, it's less of a surprise when a lazily circulating low with a couple of shower bands turns into a beast in 24 hours.

If that particular low that's been sitting off Georgia goes pear-shaped, it would be pretty rough because it's liable to come ashore farther north than Florida and stronger than usual because it won't have interacted with land, just with an 82 F Gulf Stream.
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Old 09-04-2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valiente View Post
If you follow the hurricane center alerts for Felix, you can find this thing's progress (and the progress of the three tropical waves behind Felix) at the "Marine weather discussion" page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

If you know how to figure out a synoptic chart, it's less of a surprise when a lazily circulating low with a couple of shower bands turns into a beast in 24 hours.

If that particular low that's been sitting off Georgia goes pear-shaped, it would be pretty rough because it's liable to come ashore farther north than Florida and stronger than usual because it won't have interacted with land, just with an 82 F Gulf Stream.
And if you check the most recent models, they show exactly that, with 2 of them putting it across the southern Chesapeake
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Old 09-04-2007
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Cam,
Thanks for the heads up, will keep my eye on it.
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Old 09-04-2007
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Many of the folks down here in South Carolina believe that hurricanes are "steered" by ocean currents. This is why so many of them claim the same thing -- that SC and Georgia rare are hit BECAUSE THE GULF STREAM FERRY THEM NORTH. I'm not exactly up on my meteorology, but this seems really preposterous. Wouldn't prevailing winds and current fronts and troughs have the overwhelming sway over a hurricane's path?
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Old 09-04-2007
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Thanks Cam for the update, hadn't seen this anywhere else.

Too bad they can't draw the projections like 50 miles further west into the Bay, they aren't quite aimed DIRECTLY at my boat yet.
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Old 09-04-2007
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5PM 9/4 update...still remains unorganized and only organizing slowly and erratically but now ALL models show recurve to the north and impact on or close to NC coast. Forecasters think it will take a day or two before it gets up a head of steam so will continue to watch and post here.
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Cam,
Maybe it's not so bad being at the wrong end of the bay!
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Old 09-04-2007
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So much for heading back to Manteo. Thanks for the alert.
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