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post #1 of 18 Old 07-21-2008 Thread Starter
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Hello Dolly

This storm is taking up nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico, it without a doubt is the one to keep a serious eye on. It is amazing looking and the action around the eye looks to be getting pretty spectacular here in the near future... ... It has death written all over it, as its potential to stregnthen into a beast is more likely than not IMO, considering all the fuel and optimal conditions favouring its development. The only thing this storm has going against it is its rate of speed, the last thing anyone wants to see is this thing stalling, right now it is moving at a pretty good clip...





Forecast

THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL
CHANGES. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH
SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT
45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER
CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY
WILL REACH THE COAST. IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE
OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.
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post #2 of 18 Old 07-21-2008
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I wish no ill on anyone. I just think we've had our share in New Orleans for a while...
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post #3 of 18 Old 07-21-2008
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Batten down the hatches in Texas! Good luck!

Jon Caisson Bozeman
S/V Little Miss Magic, Pirates Cove, AL
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post #4 of 18 Old 07-21-2008 Thread Starter
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Oil prices rally on Dolly storm...
NEW YORK (AFP) Oil prices rebounded Monday, after falling more than 16 dollars last week, as a tropical storm barreled into the Gulf of Mexico and the international community tightened pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program...

"Well hello Dolly, well hello Dolly, it's not so nice to have you back where you are now," said Alaron Trading analyst Phil Flynn...

The storm "has served as a reminder that there remains a threat to oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico while we remain in the hurricane season," Sucden's Davies said...


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, by refusing to increase oil output, appears to be seeking an upper limit for crude prices, CGES said.

"The recent sharp fall in oil prices may seem to suggest that it found that limit at 150 dollars per barrel. If not, then we can expect oil prices to surge again until they rise high enough to drive the world deeper into recession," the London-based consultancy said.
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post #5 of 18 Old 07-21-2008
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Here's the 11PM latest position. Winds are now 50mph and expected to be Cat1 when she hits. Track seems to keep getting adjusted a bit more north with each update. Pay attention to the CONE of probability and not merely the best guess track if you are in the area!

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post #6 of 18 Old 07-21-2008
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Yawn, stretch. ZzzzZZ...ZZzzzZZ
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post #7 of 18 Old 07-22-2008 Thread Starter
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Hurricane warnings were issued for the southwestern Texas coast, with the Corpus Christi oil-refining complex in the squares of the NE punch of Dolly and your snoozing? Interesting...

Sad thing is considering how long it took Dolly to get dressed for her landing I can only imagine that your not the only one snoozing SeaBreeze, Dolly's speed slowing down is only going to allow it to get stronger, how much stronger remains to be seen.

In your prayers tonight be sure to keep Texas in mind, they'll need it...
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post #8 of 18 Old 07-22-2008
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1969 Camille: Sustained winds had now increased to an incredible 190-mph, with gusts over 220-mph. Camille was now estimated to make landfall along the Mississippi coast around midnight on the 17th. Hurricane Andrew (1992) destroyed more property, and Hurricane Katrina resulted in many more fatalities - but Hurricane Camille remains the strongest storm to ever enter the United States mainland on record.
Hurricane Camille 1969
I was in Pascagoula, in the northeast quadrant.

1979 Frederic: NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft reported Frederic had sustained winds of about 130-mph, with gusts to 150-mph, just prior to landfall on the Alabama coast. Several extreme wind reports were received in southern Alabama and Mississippi. The National Weather Service office at Ingalls Shipyard in Pascagoula, Mississippi recorded wind gusts to 127-mph.
Hurricane Frederic 1979
I was in Pascagoula...the eye went over us.

1984 Elena: Elena weakened steadily to a 115 mph (185 km/h) hurricane before making landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi on September 2.
Hurricane Elena - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Again, Pascagoula, and the northeast quadrant.

2005 Katrina: At landfall, hurricane-force winds extended outward 120 miles (190 km) from the center and the storm's central pressure was 920 mbar. After moving over southeastern Louisiana and Breton Sound, it made its third landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border with 120 mph (195 km/h) sustained winds, still at Category 3 intensity.
Hurricane Katrina - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Huge, and slow-moving, we got pounded for over 18 hours!!! This time I was in Ocean Springs, again, the northeast quadrant. The NE quadrant is key, because that's where the maximum intensity is.
I was there for all of them.

You were saying something about a barely-there, just became a 75mph hurricane? Any storm can be dangerous, even a fast-moving squall, but please spare me the drama-queen routine. And wake me when it's a real storm.

Last edited by seabreeze_97; 07-23-2008 at 12:08 AM.
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post #9 of 18 Old 07-23-2008
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Well...she is up to 80 and I would expect another 10-20 added on before landfall and that is plenty strong enough to cause a bunch of damage to lots of boats and other stuff. People do get killed in Cat1's but thankfully it won't be much more than that. Looks like it will be well south of most of our fellow sailnetters ...but we hope the best for all.

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post #10 of 18 Old 07-23-2008
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Yawn, stretch. PM me when this gets to LI, NY.

By that time I will already know that tropical weather is heading our way and the drought deficits will be replenished along the NE coast.
More seriously, I have weathered hurricanes Gloria and Bob up here and I do wish you the best. When they hit here they are usually doing about 60 mph on a northerly track making the NE section a deadly part.
Glad I was on land for all of the past hurricane crossings of my little burg.
My best.

"The cure for anything is salt water~ sweat, tears, or the sea." ~Isak Denesen

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