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-   -   Favorable conditions for Fay to Develop (http://www.sailnet.com/forums/general-discussion-sailing-related/45927-favorable-conditions-fay-develop.html)

JagsBch 08-10-2008 04:56 PM

Favorable conditions for Fay to Develop
 
My wife and daughter are planning a 10 day cruise in the Caribbean starting Sunday August 27th... I can't help but wonder how bright the decision was for them to be going during the heart of hurricane season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HASBEEN SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20MPH.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/...3747123_sm.gif

JagsBch 08-15-2008 06:44 AM

Here we go folks

PBzeer 08-15-2008 06:51 AM

Per latest forecast.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THIS FEATURE DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS THE TURK AND CAICOS...SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

hphoen 08-15-2008 07:30 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Yep, late August into early September is not a great time to be on a sailboat in the eastern Caribbean. As far as tropical storms go, the actual peak for the North Atlantic, historically, is September 10th.

Oddly, as the current "disturbance of interest", Invest 92 or potential TS Fay, went by to the north of us, the wind completely died. It's been flat here for several days. The stronger tropical waves kill the tradewinds.

Joel73 08-15-2008 11:28 PM

http://towndock.net/iweather/img/storm_nhc_06resize.gif

JagsBch 08-19-2008 06:12 PM

Oh boy looks like this thing is projected to hit right near my Beach AS A HURRICANE. WHAT THE WHAT THE WHAT?

Iflyka200s 08-19-2008 06:18 PM

Hang in there brother we got soaked all last night and this AM........... be careful!

(I'm in Ft Lauderdale)

JagsBch 08-19-2008 07:34 PM

I have my 20' Mirage parked at a friends house right underneath an old oak tree. I am thinking I had better move it to my place now

camaraderie 08-19-2008 10:14 PM

Good luck Jags...this is a strange one!

JagsBch 08-19-2008 11:01 PM

OK moved the boat back to my place. Bought a small 8K BTU AC unit and a generator. Been meaning to get both for the boat anyway for camping trips, guess this was just the excuse I needed to get them now.

Well we are still under a hurricane watch, inspite of the fact that Fay has disipated a lot in the past few hours. I am keeping an eye on the tail from the outerband over the Atlantic, it is dippind down into the keys and feeding off all the warm water coming off the Gulf Stream, talk about your potentent scorpion tails...

Thing that has me concerned at the moment inspite of it dying down, is that when Fay pops out into the Atlantic tonight, it will be sitting right on top of a fuel current that will be feeding the storm cells that will be blowing it back up.

This is a strange storm indeed Cam. It has been draining and reinergizing like the energizer bunny. It however, is in perfect position to stall right offshore as its speed is slowing down to allow it to cook and brew in the heat of the noon day sun tomorrow before being slingshotted north to slam just south of Jagsbch as a hurricane giving us the North East Knuckle Punch. :eek:

Right now Fay has sustained winds @ 50 MPH, there is a probability of it doubling in stregnth before coming back ashore in the next couple of days.:eek: How likely? Your guess is as good as mine.

Oh boy


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