Sinking

[Omatako]

40 - 50 foot seas and 40 - 50 knot winds seem a little incongruous. Still I guess the CG folks are good at estimating this sort of stuff.

Must be a wave train from an earlier blow that came across these unfortunate folks.

[JohnRPollard]

Originally Posted by Omatako

40 - 50 foot seas and 40 - 50 knot winds seem a little incongruous....

Not off the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts of the United States. This time of year and continuing through the winter, we get freight train cold fronts that come down from Canada. They are not swirling low-pressure systems, but rather straight line winds that persist for several days from the same direction (north-north-west).

Complicating this is that the Gulf Stream current is pushing it's way north in this patch of water at a speed of several knots, so the wind and current are contrary. They can pile high and tight very quickly -- best to be no-where in the vicinity during these conditions.

Next time we get a good norther, check some of the readings at these off-shore buoys. It's sobering.

NDBC - Northeast USA Recent Marine Data

[sailingdog]

Andre-

If the winds were opposing an existing wave train, they could easily build up that high...


Bubb-

My bad.. same first graf threw me off.. yours has names.

[smackdaddy]

It's extremely unfortunate - but worthy of note - that the man perished by leaving the boat (for perfectly valid reasons obviously) for his rescue - even though it was sinking. I recall from the Anti-BFS thread several people talking about how even a beat down boat can typically withstand a hell of a lot of punishment - even in insane conditions like this. Seems to prove that point once again as the others waited out the next attempt. What a lousy way to go, man.

[bubb2]

Originally Posted by JohnRPollard

Not off the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts of the United States. This time of year and continuing through the winter, we get freight train cold fronts that come down from Canada. They are not swirling low-pressure systems, but rather straight line winds that persist for several days from the same direction (north-north-west).

Complicating this is that the Gulf Stream current is pushing it's way north in this patch of water at a speed of several knots, so the wind and current are contrary. They can pile high and tight very quickly -- best to be no-where in the vicinity during these conditions.

Next time we get a good norther, check some of the readings at these off-shore buoys. It's sobering.

NDBC - Northeast USA Recent Marine Data

Thank you for your post John. Unless they have been "out there" most people wont believe it.

[cnc33voodoo]

this is a truly sad story and my thoughts are with the crew but.....
in todays age of technology couldnt this have been avoided by proper planning and weather watches?
every now and then i hear one of these stories and wonder how it could have been avoided.

[sailingdog]

Not everything can be avoided... mother nature still is a bit unpredictable when it comes to weather.

[bubb2]

The storm was forecasted. attached is a link for the conditions at Atlantic City airport. notice the speed of the gusts and this was on land. I wish I knew their thinking.
Intellicast - Atlantic City Past Weather Observations in New Jersey (08401)

[JohnRPollard]

Originally Posted by cnc33voodoo

this is a truly sad story and my thoughts are with the crew but.....
in todays age of technology couldnt this have been avoided by proper planning and weather watches?
every now and then i hear one of these stories and wonder how it could have been avoided.

I am purely speculating, but...

Often times folks that are moving boats south along the U.S. east coast, from New York or New England, wait for a front to pass that will bring north-north-west winds. In summer, these fronts are usually mild enough that they don't pack a huge punch, but provide a nice boost on the way south. In winter, they are generally pretty severe, but fortunately no one is moving boats south at that point.

These unfortunate incidents occur most often in autumn, particularly late
October/early November, when some of the stragglers are making the leap south. Like anyone else, they prefer a tailwind. The crapshoot is how strong will the front be? It could be just a nice strong favorable blow, or much worse. Sometimes they are well predicted, others, the forecast gets it wrong.

In this case, the cold front ended up dumping snow (over a foot in many places) from North Carolina to New Jersey to Pennsylvania to New York and Vermont. In October!! This ended up being a much stronger, colder, longer lasting gale than they had predicted. Nasty conditions to be at sea.

[tommays]

We have had 50 MPH winds twice in the last 10 days