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-   -   Danny Boy - in NYC? (http://www.sailnet.com/forums/general-discussion-sailing-related/57502-danny-boy-nyc.html)

edguy3 08-27-2009 12:08 PM

Danny Boy - in NYC?
 
I'm looking for some words of wisdom.

We planned a four day cruising trip from New Jersey to the Long Island Sound
starting tonight.. Now, the news is filled with Danny Hurricane Headlines.. Impact to the area projected for Sunday by the weather channel. ( smack in the middle of our holiday!) however, NOAA forecasts are still Okay.. ( a couple showers/thunder showers with moderate wind and small waves. )

Would you cancel your trip? The sound has plenty of protected harbors, but it will be over a day away from home, but, I dont want to simply cancel because of media hype...

Thanks
Ed

Of course, we will need to monitor the weather for any changes..

smackdaddy 08-27-2009 12:20 PM

ed - some real sailors will be along shortly with actual advice (like Bubb, Caleb, etc. who are in that area). But, as a newbie having listened for a long time to some of these guys...personally I'd wait.

Now others more knowledgeable will maybe tell you different. And you should listen to them, not me.

But I only wanted to post this because it's the kind of decision I as a new sailor will have to make someday. And I've really tried to learn from these Sailnet guys that know their stuff.

So take it with a HUGE grain of salt. But I'm going to stay way the hell away from any hurricane...period.

Welcome to SN dude.

Valiente 08-27-2009 12:27 PM

It's late August. Hurricanes will occur.

Play it by ear and carry twice the line and chafe gear and fenders (and a couple of planks with four holes in 'em!) because ducking into a hurricane hole won't help you if a very high tide comes in and you're not able to ride up the pilings.

Since I've been sailing on Lake Ontario, maybe four serious storms (outside of winter) have come through necessitating doubled lines and other "rocking the dock" measures. I have always thought that being out to sea was perhaps a little safer in such conditions than quite so close to shore, but I might be in the minority here.

tommays 08-27-2009 02:31 PM

Well

My boat is in Northport harbor and takes a beating when the wind swings around from the NE even at 30 knots

zeehag 08-27-2009 03:04 PM

check stormpulse and weather passage.com and sailflow for your info and watch like a hawk---if you sail well, then go for it--if you are nervous, act accordingly---but stay out of dannys way--be safe!!!!!!

voice3 08-27-2009 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edguy3 (Post 517413)
I'm looking for some words of wisdom.

We planned a four day cruising trip from New Jersey to the Long Island Sound
starting tonight.. Now, the news is filled with Danny Hurricane Headlines.. Impact to the area projected for Sunday by the weather channel. ( smack in the middle of our holiday!) however, NOAA forecasts are still Okay.. ( a couple showers/thunder showers with moderate wind and small waves. )

Would you cancel your trip? The sound has plenty of protected harbors, but it will be over a day away from home, but, I dont want to simply cancel because of media hype...

Thanks
Ed

Of course, we will need to monitor the weather for any changes..

Be careful if you plan on spending much time in the open ocean on the south side of Long Island as you're headed to and from Jersey to the LI sound. The wind and waves can really kick up when hurricanes are remotely close.

CalebD 08-27-2009 04:26 PM

Ed,
While I would largely agree about the media hype but if it were up to me I would probably cancel, sad to say since Smackdaddy called me a 'real' sailor. The current NOAA forecast for the area is for rain starting Friday through Sunday. I am sure you have foul weather gear but do you really want to spend a couple of days wearing it?
I think it unlikely that Danny boy will hit here as a hurricane but that does not rule out a persistent easterly flow for several days from a tropical storm. The last pest of a weather system that did this was Ernesto which resulted in over 40 knot winds from the east for about 36 hours. This kind of persistent wind tends to build up the water level in the western sound such that there may be no real low tide which could make getting up the East River doubtful or at least a hell of a ride on the way back down.
I would prefer a more benign forecast for a trip like the one you are planning.
That is just me though.
Let us know how it goes for you.

zz4gta 08-27-2009 04:41 PM

Well, I'm driving 3.5 hours to Deltaville VA this saturday to tune up on a race boat for ARW next weekend. Our one rule, Don't blow the brand new kite before the race!

We hit the water at 1100, shoot me a pm w/ your phone # and I'll let ya know what the weather looks like from the south. Not sure if it'll help any though.

TheSamuelson 08-27-2009 05:37 PM

Looks like DANNY may graze the Cape and Islands this weekend, but I agree with most that he may not have hurricane-force at that point.

TheSamuelson 08-27-2009 05:37 PM

Here's a couple windspeed snaps I found at Sailing Weather Service | Free Data Portal of DANNY nearing Cape Cod and landfall on Nova Scotia...

http://206.166.134.206/PUBLIC/MM5/Bo...1/danny_CC.gif

http://206.166.134.206/PUBLIC/MM5/Bo...1/danny_NS.gif


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