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  #191  
Old 05-15-2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeelHaulin View Post
A scientist was on Fox news yesterday who said that the flow coming out of that pipe was about 10x higher than the government and BP has claimed (5k barrels per day estimate by BP). His estimate was 50 to 70k barrels per day using computer analysis of the flow which has been known/standard since the late 1980's.

That's an Exxon Valdez every 3 days going into the Gulf
We should be skeptical of anyone who claims they know better than anyone else what is really being discharged. Volume and pressure out of a specific diameter pipe is simple to equate to a discharge flow rate in normal conditions but this is far from normal and someone who claims they can model it or run a computer analysis with "standard" assumptions is particularly dubious.
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  #192  
Old 05-15-2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k1vsk View Post
We should be skeptical of anyone who claims they know better than anyone else what is really being discharged. Volume and pressure out of a specific diameter pipe is simple to equate to a discharge flow rate in normal conditions but this is far from normal and someone who claims they can model it or run a computer analysis with "standard" assumptions is particularly dubious.
On PBS the other night, there was a reference to a non-profit with a name (which escapes me) that sounded like a Gulf of Mexico ocean environmental group, that was in fact a front for the major Petro companies, who held all the seats on the board of directors. If you are not being currently compensated by that or similar organization, your missing a great bet to fill the cruising kitty.

You seem to spend 3/4 or you waking hours on Sailnet belittling anyone who expresses concern over the ongoing catastrophe in the Gulf, and spinning all disclosures as a positive for big oil interests. If you are not being paid to do this, I am not psychologically trained enough to understand why you would do it. Anyone who is not appalled, concerned for the future, and a bit angry over the incompetence and corner-cutting greed displayed by the extractors of the Gulf oil, is either embedded so deep in ideology they can't see, or simply isn't in touch with reality.



NOAA Ocean Explorer: Expedition to the Deep Slope

There are nearly 4000 of these platforms currently active in the Gulf alone. How many of those have undetected corrosion, or flaws in structural materials, or whose safety checks were faked or short-cutted? Huh? We know it happens, even on nuclear power plants where the x-rays of welds were routinely faked during construction to cut costs. That became one of the nails in the coffin of nuclear plant construction. And when others of these 4k platforms begin to fail from these poor maintenance issues or acts of god (insurers favorite phrase), like during the upcoming forcasted heavy hurricane season, then what? Yes we are clever cheeky animals and make amazing machines, but as any steel boat owner might tell you, rust never sleeps and machines decay. Don't you have a tea party to go to or something? Jeez.
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Last edited by fjon; 05-15-2010 at 08:54 PM.
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  #193  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fjon View Post
On PBS the other night, there was a reference to a non-profit with a name (which escapes me) that sounded like a Gulf of Mexico ocean environmental group, that was in fact a front for the major Petro companies, who held all the seats on the board of directors. If you are not being currently compensated by that or similar organization, your missing a great bet to fill the cruising kitty.



.
Interesting deduction albeit you could not be more wrong in that I am an environmental and chemical engineer and have worked in the hazardous waste site and oil spill assessment and cleanup consulting areas for governments, non-profits and public agencies throughout my career doing env assessment and cleanup consulting, now retired. Never worked for or paid by the petrochemical industry, directly or otherwise

The antithesis of what you suggest!

My purpose in seemingly always commenting here is that far too many people make misleading, exaggerated or false claims about this spill and I'd prefer, apparently a futile hope, that people make informed decisions about it rather than be constantly fed by hysterical statements, Utube references, sensationalized media coverage and people who hate industry which they couldn't survive without.

Why you believe otherwise is both cynical and telling.



Last edited by k1vsk; 05-15-2010 at 09:37 PM.
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  #194  
Old 05-15-2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k1vsk View Post
We should be skeptical of anyone who claims they know better than anyone else what is really being discharged. Volume and pressure out of a specific diameter pipe is simple to equate to a discharge flow rate in normal conditions but this is far from normal and someone who claims they can model it or run a computer analysis with "standard" assumptions is particularly dubious.
No, this guy was a professor of computational fluid dynamics. I don't think he would stake his career and reputation on getting this wrong. It was not a back of an envelope calculation he did; he used a method that captures and measures the movement and flow of particles in a video image (the camera images of the flow exiting the pipe). This type of analysis is nothing new in fluid dynamics; and he seemed to think it was not a difficult analysis as there is now software that will read the video data and determine the velocity without hand calculations.
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  #195  
Old 05-16-2010
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I won't dispute that this is a disaster, and I hope heads roll for it. However, I'm very skeptical about this guy's claims that the well is actually leaking at 70,000+ barrels per day. I don't care what he's a professor of; he watched a few seconds of grainy video and punted, now he's getting his 15 minutes.

He forgot to do a reality check---can a well produce at that rate? I do deep-water developments for a living, and I know that wells anywhere don't produce at that sort of rate, even if we wanted them to. I, and no one I work with, has ever heard of a well flowing at that sort of rate, anywhere in the world, under even ideal circumstances.

BP screwed up here, but I think we can all agree that nobody wants to stop this thing more than they do, and they're going to spend and do whatever it takes to stop it. All of the industry has made itself available to help them.

I'd have to disagree that all the 4000 or so platforms in the gulf are some sort of "ticking time bomb" full of cut corners and accidents waiting to happen. Offshore oil has been going on for so long in the gulf (not to mention the rest of the world). If there was a widespread problem, we'd know about it by now. Hurricane's plow through these fields every year without incident.
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  #196  
Old 05-17-2010
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OK; I did the reverse math on this assuming 70,000 barrels per day. This will get us back to the flow rate number the scientist on FNC determined via the video flow analysis.

70,000BPD=3,850,000 Gal/Day = 160,416 Gal/Hour = 44.56 Gal/Sec = 5.95 CubicFeet/Sec

Pipe Diameter is 2 feet - Pipe cross-sectional Area=3.1415 Sq Ft

Divide the Volume Rate by the Pipe Area and you get:

Velocity of flow = 1.891 feet/second = 1.289 miles/hour.

That flow is not very fast; it means that if the pipe were continuous to the surface it would take the oil at the bottom of the tube 45 minutes to flow up to the surface.

If the 70,000 BPD number is for one pipe; the oil flowing out of the two failed pipes is more. If the calculation I did was assuming the total of 70,000 BPD is for both pipes; the flow velocity would be at about half the speed I calculated which makes it MORE plausible not less.
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  #197  
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First it was the regulators not doing their jobs, then itr was the SEC not doing their jobs. Now it's the mineral agency (whatever that is) not doping their jobs in Washington. Do you ever get the feeling Washington is FUBAR and cannot be fixed?
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  #198  
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  #199  
Old 05-17-2010
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Keel-

When talking about crude oil, a barrel is 42 gallons, not 55.
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His whole premise is wrong on many levels, not the least of which is that no well could produce 122,500 gph and even if it did, the well head would never withstand that pressure. It serves no purpose to quote some wack-job who claims he can calculate volume or discharge rate.

The reality is no credible person can precisely calculate flow rate coming from a mangled well casing broken in multiple places and even if he/anyone guessed, it is meaningless in terms of trying to equate volume to environmental impact. In every major oil spill, people focus on a discharge rate or volume of the spill which has little to do with anything other than sensationalizing headlines or satisfying some irrational need to have a number.

The true impacts will not be fully understood for a long time. The first real environmental assessment results won't be completed for years. No one will ever be able to quantify the amount of oil actually released and the oil company, driller, production company and their subsidiaries will litigate over this for decades.
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