Questionable weather

[lgaggie96]

We are planning to sail from St Croix to St Thomas, then pick up some friends and cruise around the islands for a week. We had planned to headout this Friday, but the weather does not look good.
Forecast: South winds 11 to 16 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. 80% chance of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Would you attempt to head out in this weather?? It's about a 7 hr sail.

[SimonV]

unless you are heading south, I see no issues.

[lgaggie96]

No concerns about the thunderstorms?

[PalmettoSailor]

Well from a safety perspective, I think a typical coastal crusing boat could handle those conditions to get there. However if that is the extended forecast for the entire time your friends are expected to be there, it might not rank high in the "enjoyable outing" catagory.

Regarding TS, if we didn't sail when there was a chance of TS, there would be very little sailing on the Chesapeake. I wouldn't go if strong frontal activity were forecast, but a pop up summer TS is too short in duration to whip up truly dangerous seas. I usually sail until its clear a TS is looming then I'll roll up the sails and motor until it passes then resume sailing. I've chosen to abort entering a channel and motor about in circles in the middle of a storm rather than risk a narrow channel with poor visiblity and wind gusts that would put me aground in minutes if I lost the engine. I have been worried to the point of real fear about a lightning strike on some occasions but the summer forecast in my area nearly always has a chance of afternoon TS so you just have to accept the risk or stay at the dock a whole lot.

So it really depends on what you think the forecast is telling you. While pop up TS pose some risks to the boat, they generally are over pretty quickly, but again they don't really add to the "enjoyable outing" factor.

[Ulladh]

I was sailing BVI in April, this is fairly a normal weather condition.

We had 15 to 20, scattered showers, and appearant wind up to 30. Double reef main, roll out headsail to 75% or 50% and have fun. Shake out a reef, and roll out more headsail when you are a bit more comfortable with the conditions.

[Zanshin]

That is not only typical weather for that passage, but actually is better than usual. Last week I did the passage from Antigua to the BVI in BFT 5 and waves over 3m (according to the French weather for St. Martin/St. Barths) and three days later the waves were under 1m and winds under 10 knots and I wish I'd waited.
You didn't post what kind of a boat you'll be in, that would make a big difference. Also, I like using WindGuru.com for the expected waves, wave direction and the wave period as a 10 second swell is a lot better than a 5s one.

[Zanshin]

(Added after I checked WindGuru for St. Croix this coming Saturday)

You have a front moving through, with winds from the south and strengthening over the day but still relatively mild. You will be running downwind going from St. Croix to St. John/St. Thomas but the waves will be from the east and only changing direction after the wind, but at 5-8s period and under 5 feet you might have a rather rolly ride north but nothing out of the ordinary.
The tropical weather report (Tropical Weather : Weather Underground or WeatherCarib - Tropical Atlantic & Caribbean Weather - fast links to monitor tropical weather or Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone Page ) shows a system which explains the southerly winds and waves. So it looks like squalls and other micro-weather are more likely to disturb you than the overall weather picture.
I've attached the most recent NEW

[lgaggie96]

We will be in a Beneteau First 38. Thanks for all of the info. We are still a little on the green side and were concerned about the thunderstorms. Although I do like the idea of having a downwind sail to StThomas.

[DropTop]

I've been down there for many small TS's, they are usually nothing to be too concerned with, and as mentioned already, they usually blow over before they turn the water too choppy or build large swells. Just reef as necessary and stay alert to any changes in conditions, and you'll be fine.

[Zanshin]

The Beneteau is plenty good enough for that type of weather. If you have radar aboard then use that to see the squalls and those generally move with the wind over open water so chances are good that you might avoid them. Because of the wind and wave directions to your direction of sail you might have to restrcit your sails to just a mainsail with preventer and not be able to use your genoa (unless you either have a boom or tack downwind). With those waves and a Beneteau 38 you shouldn't roll too much. Apart from that I wish you fun sailing! I left the BVI on Monday and already wish I were back, and that downwind run from Antigua was a blast with much of it at over 9knots average (10+ while going down a wave, 8+ while going up the next one)