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Hurrican Earl heads toward the US East Coast

8K views 58 replies 27 participants last post by  ChuckA 
#1 · (Edited)
Hurricane Earl heads toward the US East Coast

Looks like we are going to get hit by Earl. Time to refine your hurricane plan.

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My insurance company will reimburse 50% (up to $500) if I take action to mitigate wind (hurricane) damage. Something like getting hauled-out would be covered,

I'm thinking about getting another (and oversized) anchor for a "hunker down" or running for cover, depending on where the cone is in the next couple days. The "hunker down" option will look better if it's not a direct hit, but rather if Earl is off the coast, so I can pick a spot with reduced fetch in the lake.

One thing is for sure, we had some fantastic surfing on the east coast this past weekend. Calm conditions with occasional head-high (and above) swells every 10 minutes. This was due to Daniell that is now out to sea.

Here's another graphic showing both Danielle and Earl.



.

So what's your hurricane plan?

Regards,
Brad
 
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#4 ·
Just a reminder about that cone of uncertainty, especially at days 4-5. This from the NHC discussion:

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.
Also, the track has recently been trending west.
 
#5 ·
My boat is on Long Island Sound (already protected to a large degree by Long Island), docked at a marina behind a Hurricane barrier.

If the storm makes it way towards me, I'll take the main and Bimini off the boat and store them below, and if it looks like it's going to be really bad, I'll get cable and secure the boat to the triple set of pylons at either end of the slip in case any of the dock lines or cleats break.
 
#6 · (Edited)
I'm on the south end of Barnegat Bay and we're pretty exposed. I'll be watching the next day or so. If it looks like we're going to take a hit I'm going to run up Forked River (a local hurricane hole) pull off the sails and canvas, haul out and hope for the best. As someone else said BoatUS will cover half the cost.

That said the local weather chicken littles are still calling for the storm to bounce off another weather system and head out to sea without hitting us. So far the forecast is for a beautiful sailing weekend.

Jim
 
#7 ·
The forecast ATM for Buzzards Bay is good...but Earl definitely needs watching. :D
 
#8 ·
Forecast looking better

The latest forecast is looking better but hurricanes are funny things.

Right now my plan for saturday includes a quiet day sailing and some BBQing. If it looks like Earl is changing paths then on to plan B.



Forecast

Jim
 
#9 · (Edited)
One of the cones I saw a few moments ago shows a 5% chance of hurricane winds hitting Long Island.

There is a much higher (40% or 45%) probability of tropical storm force winds.



This does bear watching.

Is there a sticky thread on hurricane preparedness steps?

Regards,
Brad
 
#10 ·
I'm watching Earl right now, live!!! Boat was stripped of sails yesterday and my hurricane lines with chain were attached to the bases of pilings. The house is shuttered up and the generator has been humming since 6AM when the power went out. So far it's not been that bad but the worst of it is forecast to be here in an hour or so. Friends on the north side say there are large swells pounding. My view is to the south over the harbor and it has looked flat everytime I've been able to see it. Hopefully for the few boats that are still there, conditions and the upcoming wind change won't casue any damage.
 
#13 · (Edited)
Was envisioning someplace up a river in CT maybe. Pretty much limited to that or bee-lining up the sound toward NY, if it's going to hit eastern Long Island.

Where are you these days? Near as I can tell you are moving around a bit. Retirement must be grand. (I spent 22 days on the boat in July, a new record. The rest of my family did more than that. We didn't sail that much, everyone loves it where we are.)

Regards,
Brad
 
#14 · (Edited)
#15 ·
Trade-offs

Brad,

I'm fortunate that this summer Billy Ruff'n is on the hard in Trinidad, well out of the hurricane box. Last year at this time, I was doing what you're doing now -- checking the NHC website hourly and sweating out the decision many will face in the days ahead -- "Do I stay put or do I go somewhere else?"

BTW, there's a good site for storm tracking info at Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update . I like to look at the plots of forecast tracks from all the wx models. Gives you a sense of what everyone is thinking, not just NOAA.

In my book, the "hunker down vs. run for it" decision is never easy. If you have the time to move, and assuming hauling is not an option, it basically boils down to the trade off between the increased distance you move away from the likely storm track and the quality of what you can put on the bottom to hold the boat once you get there.

I'm very reluctant to run unless it looks like it will be a direct hit. I have what I consider to be pretty near a bullet-proof mooring in P'twn harbor --two very big anchors strung between 800# & 80 ft of chain on the bottom with a 1/2" top chain. But some of the guys around me are not as well equipped, so I also consider how much damage the other guys boat will cause when it drifts down on me.

I've considered running to Maine several times, but each time the storm moved offshore and I stayed put. The issue with running away deals with both the improvement in the anchorage (protection, fetch, etc) vs where you are now, and the quality of the improvised mooring gear you will have to set up once you're there. Only problem with running to great hurricane hole is that everyone else goes there too and late arrivals are not likely to find the best spots to set up the ground tackle. In my case, I know I'm likely to be a late arrival (Maine being 140nm away), and I'm not likely to be able to deploy ground tackle that is anywhere near as secure at the homeport mooring. Given my situation, I think I'd rather take 60-70 knots on my home mooring than 40 kts or so on an anchor (or two) set in a harbor in Maine I don't know as well. Last time I was in Maine I visited the spot I'd probably run to -- it wasn't as big as it looked on the chart and there were lots of locals with seasonal moorings. Most of the best spots were taken. After that experience, I think I'd be reluctant to head off to a hurricane hole I hadn't seen before.

I'm thankful I don't have to make the decision this year. Good luck to you and all who do. May the Force be with you!
 
#16 ·
Farcry—

Good luck... stay safe.

BillyRufn—

Good to hear you're out of the path of this one.
 
#17 ·
Brad,
Have you considered heading over to CT and tying your boat up at a Brewers YC that is relatively protected? I'm not sure that such an animal exists but it might be safer then where you are now. It seems Brewers has 8 locations in CT. I'm not sure what kind of availability they will have as far as transient slips as the week wears on.
 
#19 ·
That's a good point Caleb. I actually have 2 free nights (from wintering with them) that I haven't used. They have 1 marina way up the Mystic river too. (It's out of the direct flow of water, from what I can tell.)

Unless our lake is directly in the path, I'll strip everything off and hunker down in the deepest part of the lake (which isn't all that deep actually) and/or in a spot that has as little fetch as possible. If Earl is out over the Atlantic, storm surge should raise the depth, even with the lake opening on the north side. I'll have 3 anchors out and lots of scope (8:1 on chain for one of them, similar on line). And the sandy bottom there holds well.

I have 350 feet of 3/8 chain that I've been slowly selling on Craigslist. It may be a bit light for a 28,000 boat, but even half of it would make for a lot of scope in 10 feet of water (15 feet from bow roller to bottom). I suppose I should get that setup on my extra anchor instead of using nylon.

Regards,
Brad
 
#18 ·
this looks like it might send a storm surge up the chessy if gets closer. I am tied to a wall, i might set two anchors out from the wall and use them to stop the boat from floating over the wall. Isabel hit the area where my boat is hard, water 4 feet over the wall. i will be keeping an eye on it.
 
#20 ·
When Hurricane Floyd passed over the Abaco's back in 02', I think it was, most of the boats on the islands leeward side that were anchored in the far reaches of the harbor suffered little to know damage. It was the boats that tried to go up the estuaries or crowd together that experienced the most damage. Since you have a good 3 days preparation I am sure you can find a safe harbor or anchorage far off from the waves and swell. As long as you protect from wind damage you and your boat should be just fine.
***Note: I know of many people from the 02' (again not sure if it was 02' or not, a quick search on google could clear things up) who anchored near the sandy and exposed coral points in the harbor and ended up having their boats pretty well sand-blasted when all was said and done. Just something else to prepare for.
 
#22 ·
As of this morning we are under the cone.

Good advice about sand blasting. Forgot about that one.

We hold a ton (literally) of water. I'm wondering if I should fill the tanks up to lower windage and stress on the rig, or empty them so she floats higher and perhaps puts less force on the anchors. I think the answer depends on how much I can reduce fetch.

Regards,
Brad
 
#24 ·
Brad,

I would have to think that the lower she sits, the lower the windage, although not by much. The greater mass would probably be a stabilizing influence which would reduce peak stress on the ground tackle caused by gusts.

But I'm no expert....
Thanks. I may drain the back 2 tanks and leave the forward ones full (or nearly so) That ought to reduce the sailing-at-anchor that she does. (Funny I never thought of that before.) I suppose moving weight forward could help too. We aren't talking about a lot of change. Still...

Regards,
Brad
 
#25 ·
Here's the spaghetti model that BillyRuffin' provided. One model has it going over Nantucket, the rest stay off shore until they get way up north.

Regards,
Brad

 
#26 ·
However, most models have Earl tracking a bit more westward than previous predictions...so we're in the target zone in NY/NE.
 
#27 ·
hurricane tracking

Some very good sites for tracking are the following:
U.S. Weather / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
HurricaneTrack.com- Hurricane Tracking, News, Information and Live Rporting
the National Hurricane Center at National Hurricane Center .

Stormpulse has the nice feature that you can turn on the forecast model, and it will show you the results of about 9 different forecast models. Unfortunately, the forecast is still somewhat alarming where we and bene505 are located, out on the tip of LI. I think it is just a bit better in the latest forecasts, and in any case all of the models show it passing to the East, leaving us on the better side of the hurricane.
 
#29 ·
Dog mentioned it, and I'll reiterate (since I posted the tracks). The spaghetti model with the defined tracks is a bunch of guesses. If you are under the cone you could get a direct hit. Also note that winds extend a ways out from the hurricane.

---

As we get closer, my plan gets more specific. If it's hitting eastern LI directly (direct hit), then I'm out of here. Running (reaching?) up the sound to someplace on Long Island or in CT, not sure yet. (Anyone want to help?) If it misses us then I'm hunkering down. If it's coming close then I'm off the boat, someplace warm and dry having a beer no doubt.

All canvas will be stored below. [Includes main, furling jib, bimini, dodger, stack-pack, and the winch covers that I never use.]

Regards,
Brad
 
#30 ·
Dog mentioned it, and I'll reiterate (since I posted the tracks). The spaghetti model with the defined tracks is a bunch of guesses.
Hurricanes do funny things. All you can do is keep a close eye on things, have the boat prepped and have a plan in case it jiggs west. :(

So far it looks pretty good for us on the Jersey coast. Things could get exciting for folks in New England.

Lets hope next week we're all talking about what a non-event Earl was...

Jim
 
#31 ·
Won't be the first time the east coast has been hit... I was in New London Ct. when the historic North tower of that chruch in Boston Ma. was blown away. This was in the early sixties at the time.
 
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