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rockDAWG 09-27-2010 04:06 PM

Hyannis to Norfolk -weatherwise
 
I will be joining as a crew heading to Norfolk from Hyannis Port in Mid October. What is the best weather window we should look for? And what is the worse weather window we must avoid?

For the last few days, wind was always coming from the south or southwest. Will it ever Chang ;). If the weather permits, we would like a straight shot to Norfolk. :)

chef2sail 09-27-2010 07:04 PM

Watch the fronts...in the fall they usually come through every three to four days. Follow the front....and you will have a northern and western component in the wind usually

Dave

paulk 09-27-2010 07:23 PM

You may get a day of Northerly or NW wind when a front passes through. One is supposed to arrive Wednesday-ish, 29SEP, according to the last report I saw. See what happens then. You can also get Easterlies that could help you along. They can blow for about three days, but they likely come with rain. Note that most favorable winds are going to run counter to the Gulf Stream, so it can get rough if you're out that far. If you're not out that far, you've got possible lee shores to consider. Fun stuff, sailing late in the season.

Tempest 09-27-2010 08:28 PM

Hi Rockdawg......a lot of boats just lost a week..waiting for a Good weather window to move south along the coast of NJ....a 24 hr sail..

I guess my question might be..what weather would keep you in port?
What size vessel, how many crew etc.....400 mile trip...5.5 kn. avg?
somewhere between 70 and 80 hours of sailing... 3 days...what happens if that window doesn't open up in mid-october? is late october ok? if not,
I think you almost have to be ready to leave..whenever an opening occurs...

Chef is right, the fronts will give you some winds with west, north and east components..before they settle back to the south...but they also bring some confused seas, rain etc..They are probably the best bet if you want to sail your rhumb line..otherwise your tacking or motoring into the prevailing SW winds..

If you're on a schedule, rather than sit and wait for a window...I might keep moving taking the inland routes...and keep an eye offshore...for an opportunity to jump outside...there are plenty of jumping off points...Block,
Montauk, Sandy hook..Cape May

We once did Cape fear to Jacksonville, with 22- 25 knots of tail winds..in 36 hours...8 to 10 following seas....with a small jib out..it was alot of fun...but I couldn't imagine doing 36 hours...into.. those conditions...unless I had to.

By way of encouragement, I've been surf casting for long stretches of time off Sandy Hook in October..when the weather has been glorious..

rockDAWG 09-28-2010 09:29 AM

Thanks Captains for all input. This is my first trip from Cape Cod to Norfolk and FL. It is only three of us, the captain has been on this route for many years, so I am not worry. As the first mate, i thought I will do my homework and be prepared. One day I will sail this water alone.

I have a tight schedule since I still need to make a living. A window of plus minus 2 days is possible, but I can't wait a week for the good weather window. In any case, we will take the LI sound and Hell Gate route.

Are there any good weather sources besides NOAA site for wind and wave prediction?

RichH 09-28-2010 10:18 AM

One of the most sought after weather routers for this area is Chris Parker of Caribbean Weather @ 4.045 mHz USB SSB starting at ~0730 hrs. Many boats will be traveling this route during the fall and spring and if you dont have a SSB you can listen-in on a portable HF receiver with external antenna.

Also PassageWeather - Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers & NOAA ocean prediction center: Ocean Prediction Center

rockDAWG 09-28-2010 12:07 PM

RichH,

These are very good links, It is my first time to see them. Many thanks.

rockDAWG 10-07-2010 12:50 PM

Two more weeks until departure on the 21st. :)
I hope the weather will hold up. Anyone have a crystal ball here ? Hopefully we can do one shot to Norfolk instead of going thru LIS and NY harbor.

Would you take a well found Tartan 38 well found with 2 mid level crews to Norfolk with the following weather forecast.
==========================

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

W CENTRAL N ATLC CONTINENTAL SHELF AND SLOPE WATERS BEYOND 20
NM...TO 250 NM OFFSHORE...INCLUDING S OF GEORGES BANK FROM 1000
FM TO...250 NM OFFSHORE.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

ANZ089-072100-
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OVER NRN
MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRI. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE W FRI THROUGH
SAT...PASS SE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN...THEN ESTABLISH A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS MON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE
ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS SAT INTO SUN.
$$

ANZ084-072100-
HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS W OF
39.3N 71.9W...SW TO 37.7N 72.9W
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.THIS AFTERNOON...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 25 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT OVER E PORTION 7 TO 10
FT...HIGHEST FAR NE.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI NIGHT...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST
E.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
$$

ANZ094-072100-
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE S OF 1000 FM
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

...GALE WARNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING W TO NW
20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT...
HIGHEST E. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 7 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS E.
.FRI...WINDS BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT FRI. SEAS SUBSIDING TO
6 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI NIGHT...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS E.
.SAT...N TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS FAR E.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4
TO 8 FT...HIGHEST E.
.MON...W WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 4 TO 6
FT.
$$

ANZ085-072100-
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON OUT TO 36N 70W TO 34N 71W
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...
EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 7 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NE.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BECOMING 4
TO 6 FT...E OF 1000 FM 6 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3
TO 5 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 5 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3 TO 6 FT...
HIGHEST E.
.SAT...N TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST NE.
.SUN...WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS...THEN
BECOMING W TO SW 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST E.
.MON...W TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
$$

ANZ086-072100-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.THIS AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT
E OF 75W 5 TO 8 FT...HIGHEST E.
.TONIGHT...NW TO N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
BECOMING 4 TO 8 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI NIGHT...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3
TO 6 FT...HIGHEST E.
.SAT...W TO NW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST E.
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W TO SW LATE. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.MON...WINDS BECOMING W TO SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
$$

BarryL 10-07-2010 02:59 PM

weather forecast and go / no go
 
Hello,

Given that forecast, a well prepared boat, and a decent crew, I would consider that forecast to be pretty good. It seems like the wind will be mostly W to NW, which is pretty good for going south.

Good luck,

Barry

Tempest 10-07-2010 03:22 PM

agreed...Other than this afternoon..friday through monday look good...lot's of shifting ( clocking) winds. this is an active sailing forecast...meaning sail changes and course changes to adjust to conditions...but looks like good sailing...the wind is certainly where you need it.


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