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Hyannis to Norfolk -weatherwise

4K views 35 replies 7 participants last post by  tempest 
#1 ·
I will be joining as a crew heading to Norfolk from Hyannis Port in Mid October. What is the best weather window we should look for? And what is the worse weather window we must avoid?

For the last few days, wind was always coming from the south or southwest. Will it ever Chang ;). If the weather permits, we would like a straight shot to Norfolk. :)
 
#2 ·
Watch the fronts...in the fall they usually come through every three to four days. Follow the front....and you will have a northern and western component in the wind usually

Dave
 
#3 ·
You may get a day of Northerly or NW wind when a front passes through. One is supposed to arrive Wednesday-ish, 29SEP, according to the last report I saw. See what happens then. You can also get Easterlies that could help you along. They can blow for about three days, but they likely come with rain. Note that most favorable winds are going to run counter to the Gulf Stream, so it can get rough if you're out that far. If you're not out that far, you've got possible lee shores to consider. Fun stuff, sailing late in the season.
 
#4 · (Edited)
Hi Rockdawg......a lot of boats just lost a week..waiting for a Good weather window to move south along the coast of NJ....a 24 hr sail..

I guess my question might be..what weather would keep you in port?
What size vessel, how many crew etc.....400 mile trip...5.5 kn. avg?
somewhere between 70 and 80 hours of sailing... 3 days...what happens if that window doesn't open up in mid-october? is late october ok? if not,
I think you almost have to be ready to leave..whenever an opening occurs...

Chef is right, the fronts will give you some winds with west, north and east components..before they settle back to the south...but they also bring some confused seas, rain etc..They are probably the best bet if you want to sail your rhumb line..otherwise your tacking or motoring into the prevailing SW winds..

If you're on a schedule, rather than sit and wait for a window...I might keep moving taking the inland routes...and keep an eye offshore...for an opportunity to jump outside...there are plenty of jumping off points...Block,
Montauk, Sandy hook..Cape May

We once did Cape fear to Jacksonville, with 22- 25 knots of tail winds..in 36 hours...8 to 10 following seas....with a small jib out..it was alot of fun...but I couldn't imagine doing 36 hours...into.. those conditions...unless I had to.

By way of encouragement, I've been surf casting for long stretches of time off Sandy Hook in October..when the weather has been glorious..
 
#5 ·
Thanks Captains for all input. This is my first trip from Cape Cod to Norfolk and FL. It is only three of us, the captain has been on this route for many years, so I am not worry. As the first mate, i thought I will do my homework and be prepared. One day I will sail this water alone.

I have a tight schedule since I still need to make a living. A window of plus minus 2 days is possible, but I can't wait a week for the good weather window. In any case, we will take the LI sound and Hell Gate route.

Are there any good weather sources besides NOAA site for wind and wave prediction?
 
#6 ·
#8 ·
Two more weeks until departure on the 21st. :)
I hope the weather will hold up. Anyone have a crystal ball here ? Hopefully we can do one shot to Norfolk instead of going thru LIS and NY harbor.

Would you take a well found Tartan 38 well found with 2 mid level crews to Norfolk with the following weather forecast.
==========================

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

W CENTRAL N ATLC CONTINENTAL SHELF AND SLOPE WATERS BEYOND 20
NM...TO 250 NM OFFSHORE...INCLUDING S OF GEORGES BANK FROM 1000
FM TO...250 NM OFFSHORE.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

ANZ089-072100-
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OVER NRN
MAINE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRI. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE W FRI THROUGH
SAT...PASS SE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN...THEN ESTABLISH A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS MON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE
ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS SAT INTO SUN.
$$

ANZ084-072100-
HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS W OF
39.3N 71.9W...SW TO 37.7N 72.9W
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.THIS AFTERNOON...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 25 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT OVER E PORTION 7 TO 10
FT...HIGHEST FAR NE.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI NIGHT...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST
E.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
$$

ANZ094-072100-
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE S OF 1000 FM
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

...GALE WARNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING W TO NW
20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT...
HIGHEST E. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 7 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS E.
.FRI...WINDS BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT FRI. SEAS SUBSIDING TO
6 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI NIGHT...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS E.
.SAT...N TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS FAR E.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4
TO 8 FT...HIGHEST E.
.MON...W WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 4 TO 6
FT.
$$

ANZ085-072100-
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON OUT TO 36N 70W TO 34N 71W
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...
EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 7 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS NE.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BECOMING 4
TO 6 FT...E OF 1000 FM 6 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3
TO 5 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM 5 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3 TO 6 FT...
HIGHEST E.
.SAT...N TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST NE.
.SUN...WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS...THEN
BECOMING W TO SW 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST E.
.MON...W TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
$$

ANZ086-072100-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

.THIS AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT
E OF 75W 5 TO 8 FT...HIGHEST E.
.TONIGHT...NW TO N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
BECOMING 4 TO 8 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST E.
.FRI NIGHT...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3
TO 6 FT...HIGHEST E.
.SAT...W TO NW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST E.
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W TO SW LATE. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.MON...WINDS BECOMING W TO SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
$$
 
#9 ·
weather forecast and go / no go

Hello,

Given that forecast, a well prepared boat, and a decent crew, I would consider that forecast to be pretty good. It seems like the wind will be mostly W to NW, which is pretty good for going south.

Good luck,

Barry
 
#10 ·
agreed...Other than this afternoon..friday through monday look good...lot's of shifting ( clocking) winds. this is an active sailing forecast...meaning sail changes and course changes to adjust to conditions...but looks like good sailing...the wind is certainly where you need it.
 
#11 ·
Thank you Both.

I don't get used to reading the off shore marine forecast. It is comfortable to reconfirm my thinking. In the past two weeks the wind was always coming from SW. Looks like is changing. Althought I will see what happen in Oct 21. One can only hope.

BTW, anyone know where is

1. HUDSON CANYON, BALTIMORE CANYON and HATTERAS CANYON

just give me a rough number of nm off any parallel :) Thanks.
 
#12 ·
Hudson Canyon is basically an extension of the Hudson River... and looks like this:



As for a description of the three... see HERE.
 
#13 · (Edited)
Great Site Dog,

RockDAWG,

I plotted your course when you posted the weather. Your course should take you as close as 7 miles west of the end of the Hudson canyon. Look for the Fishing fleet.

N39 31.176 W72 22.236 Here's a set of coordinates for the Hudson canyon.

N38 11.379 W73 46.781 Baltimore Canyon approx 71 miles 128 deg mag from cape may light...25 miles east of your track .

Clearly the canyons are not one set of coordinates...but hopefully these will help you find it on a chart
 
#15 ·
Hello to all coastal and off shore captains:

Leaving at Hyannis Port for Norfolk this Thursday is still our plan. We prefer a straight shot to Norfolk without going through LI Sound. With your experience and resource at your desk, what do you think in term of weather. Any strategy you may offer. I'd like to hear your option and reasoning.

S/V: Well founded Tartan 38 with storm sails and spinnaker, life raft, but no radar
Captain: Has done this for a dozen times in the past
Me and One other: Comfortable in the ocean.
Total: Three of us.

I am looking forward to this. I hope we will go thru rough seas for days and arrive safely. I will pre-medicate myself for motion sickness and carry suppository and injectable for motion sickness just in case.
 
#16 · (Edited)
Might be a bit lumpy... the seas (3-6') on Friday will be out of the west and so will the winds (20-25 knots) and you'll be sailing a close reach most likely. This is based on the current set of images from PassageWeather.com.



 
#17 ·
SD,

Just wonder where did you get the 6 to 9' wave reading? Do you use GFS or NAM?

I am just starting to learn how to read the weather chart, so I may miss some important info there.

We should be OK with close reach. I remember I was told that he has a boom preventer set up on the boat already.

Thanks. :)
 
#19 ·
My bad, it's 3-6'.... I just re-checked the images... had the wrong one in the browser... posted the right ones above.

As for a preventer...really not necessary sailing UPWIND.

And as for UTC, yes, 0900 UTC = 0400 EST.

SD,

Just wonder where did you get the 6 to 9' wave reading? Do you use GFS or NAM?

I am just starting to learn how to read the weather chart, so I may miss some important info there.

We should be OK with close reach. I remember I was told that he has a boom preventer set up on the boat already.

Thanks. :)
 
#21 ·
Hey Dawg,

Good luck with the trip. Just curious, what's the route for your 1st day out from Hyannis?

Stay Warm and Dry. Try and get some rest between now and departure, it's always hard before a trip but it helps during those dog watches.

Looks like you'll have plenty of NW winds starting Thursday night..and into Friday.....after some initial SW winds on Thursday morning. Looks like you'll see 5-9's or more? Diminishing on friday to 4-7 That's Noaa's offshore forecast from Hudson Canyone to Baltimore Canyon.
 
#22 · (Edited)
Thanks Tempest :)

The captain's plan is to head southwest between Elizabeth Islands and Marthas Vineyard. We should have a favorable current for about 6 hours. Depending on the weather, we may spend a night in Block Island. If the wind is favorable we will head southeast {I meant southwest} or West by southwest along the coast of Long Island.

The captain is a retired professor and knowledgeable, i should able to benefit from this trip and beyond. I am trying to do as much homework possible and hoping to contribute to the trip as much as I can.
 
#23 ·
Just curious, why would you head southeast??? West by Southwest along the LI coast makes some sense, but heading south or southwest would make far more sense than heading southeast, given the current forecast.
 
#26 ·
Hey Dawg,

Hopefully, you won't have to motor into a head wind all day Thursday.
After that, looks like you'll get NW and W winds for a bit.

If you can hold a good course through your shifts and remain healthy...you will be contributing your weight in gold!
Actually I worry about that too because the westerly wind. I have suggested to Captain to skip going through Elizabeth Island and Marthas Vineyard and just head south or southwest. But it is the captain's decision, I will be happy either way.

I have never gotten motion sickness. But this time, I don't want to take chances. I will apply a scopolamine patch tomorrow morning for a try-out. Hopeful I don't need suppository :D
 
#27 ·
Because of the weather forecast has changed. We delay our departure until Friday morning.

Currently Thursday wind at 7 am will be like this:


Friday will be like this. It will be like this (Northwest to Westerly) until late Monday.


If anyone has more reliable forecast please point it out to me. We don't have much room to move our schedules. :(
 
#28 ·
Everything I checked seems to agree with passageweather...so leaving on a friday... hmm... that's supposed to be bad luck. Might make more sense to leave on thursday, even if it is just to pull into cuttyhunk or such... to avoid the bad karma associated with friday departures.
 
#31 ·
It is still a FRIDAY... :D
 
#30 ·
I don't know, Thursday's wind looks ok for a trip down Vinyard sound if it stays northwest. Gusty in the afternoon. If your course is 233 m you should be able to sail anything that comes from above 278 ?

Easy to say that sitting in my recliner...;-) I guess you have to see what thursday brings
 
#32 ·
I don't know, Thursday's wind looks ok for a trip down Vinyard sound if it stays northwest. Gusty in the afternoon. If your course is 233 m you should be able to sail anything that comes from above 278 ?

Easy to say that sitting in my recliner...;-) I guess you have to see what thursday brings
Are you sure? Just check NOAA too

Coastal Waters Forecast for Vineyard Sound (ANZ233)

Thu...SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers in the afternoon.

Thu Night...NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

Fri...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Fri Night...NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

:)
 
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