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  #1  
Old 07-18-2011
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Real Life Weather Scenario

With tropical storm Bret moving north in the Atlantic, I have two questions for you guys to kick around.

1.) My friends are in the midst of an Atlantic crossing. Their last known position (8 hours ago) was 39°53'45.71"N, 64°25'4.80"W, with a heading of approximately 100. If they slow down... Bret will hit them (Tropical Storm Bret : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground). If they continue as they are... they should make it to the far side of the projection cone by Friday when Bret arrives, but that seems risky. Is the best solution to turn back? What would you do and why? They're in a Gulfstar 50 ketch.

2.) I'm currently on my way to Iceland and have just passed St. Pierre in Newfoundland. What's your experience with storms like this moving into my path (especially since such storms have a tendency to arc north)? What would you expect and what preparations would you make that I may not have thought of?

Thanks, all.
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Last edited by CambridgeKid; 07-18-2011 at 07:22 PM.
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Old 07-18-2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CambridgeKid View Post
With tropical storm Bret moving north in the Atlantic, I have two questions for you guys to kick around.

1.) My friends are in the midst of an Atlantic crossing. Their last known position (8 hours ago) was 39°53'45.71"N, 64°25'4.80"W, with a heading of approximately 100. If they slow down... Bret will hit them (Tropical Storm Bret : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground). If they continue as they are... they should make it to the far side of the projection cone by Friday when Bret arrives, but that seems risky. Is the best solution to turn back? What would you do and why? They're in a Gulfstar 50 ketch.
Without anymore info or consult any other sources, I would head north or NNW if possible to stay off the path of the storm.

i like to hear what other may say.
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Old 07-18-2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CambridgeKid View Post
2.) I'm currently on my way to Iceland and have just passed St. Pierre in Newfoundland. What's your experience with storms like this moving into my path (especially since such storms have a tendency to arc north)? What would you expect and what preparations would you make that I may not have thought of?
The TS may be weaken by then and becomes a Tropical depression.
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Old 07-19-2011
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If you have a SSB HF radio, tune it to 12359 KHz and check in with Herb Hilgenberg's weather net between 1930 and 2000 Hrs UTC. His call sign is "Southbound II" and he'll be listening for boats checking in between those hours. He'll then do a roll call of those he's heard and you'll get a customized forecast for the next two - three days, including Herb's recommendations on waypoints to steer for in the next two days or so.

He's very good and you should listen to what he has to say, but in the end -- as you know -- it's up to the skipper to make the decisions.

If you don't have a SSB radio, well....try sending Herb an email: hehilgen AT sympatico DOT ca

As Herb says, "Have a good watch."

PS -- In your shoes, I'd button down the boat, have storm sails rigged and ready, some food cooked, crew rested, and things generally prepared for the North Atlantic in a gale. July is probably as good as it gets for this passage, but you know...."stuff" happens. Good luck.

Last edited by billyruffn; 07-19-2011 at 03:16 PM.
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Old 07-19-2011
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Cambridge, the forecasts for the US mainland seem fairly certain about wind and weather systems moving to the east for the next week, so I would also expect the storm to be on a reliable track and unlikely to move further west than forecast.

Question being, what speed are your friends making? 7 knots? 9? And at their speed, where would they expect to be on Thursday 2pm, when that depression is still forecast to be south of their track? If they can be fairly clear of it 24 hours before it gets that far north, I'd say go for it. And, of course, get an expert opinion from Herb if they can!

If they duck back east, it may wind up adding a week to their trip and still leaving them with sloppy weather.

For yourself, if you're staying coastal, I'd gamble on the depression staying further east of you. Which can still leave you with weather, just not in the thick of it. With the massive heatwave forecast for the US east coast...I'd say coastal tornadoes are the thing to beware. (Excuse me, they're not tornadoes until they make landfall, yeah, sure.)
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