NWS prediction doesn't even agree with itself! - Page 2 - SailNet Community
 2Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #11 of 13 Old 02-25-2012
Mermaid Hunter
 
SVAuspicious's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: on the boat - Chesapeake
Posts: 3,984
Thanks: 0
Thanked 158 Times in 141 Posts
Rep Power: 9
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalebD View Post
Keep in mind that most NOAA forecasts, either weather fax or even live buoy data give you the "highest 1/3 of the waves" which means that 2/3 of the waves could easily be higher then their forecast shows.
I was with you up to that sentence.

Significant wave height is defined as the average of the 1/3 highest waves. Some waves can be higher of course (see 'average') but not 2/3.

sail fast and eat well, dave
S/V Auspicious
AuspiciousWorks.com
beware "cut and paste" sailors.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
SVAuspicious is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #12 of 13 Old 02-25-2012
SaltwaterSuzi/CapnLarry
 
LarryandSusanMacDonald's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Permanent Vacation
Posts: 604
Thanks: 1
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Rep Power: 11
 
I firmly believe that NOAA weather stations do not have windows.

I also feel that, before computers took over, humans did a better job of predicting the weather. The human mind has a wonderful facility for recognizing patterns. The number crunching weather computer programs, while improving, still lack the pattern recognition which a trained weather forecaster has (or at least, used to have.) I feel that Chris Parker does a much better job than all the fancy NOAA gadgets.

If one is going to venture to sea, he needs to rely on himself for the weather forecast. Listen to the weather conditions over the course of several days, see where the fronts are and how fast and in what direction they are moving, take weather courses so you know how two fronts are likely to interact, watch the weather for several days before you venture out and make your own predictions. See how they agree with what actually happens where you are. The more you do this, the more accurate you will become. Nobody ever gets it right 100% of the time, but you'll probably do as well or better for your immediate vicinity than those who are attempting to predict on a much larger area.

It would be interesting if someone started a database which would compare predictions of various prognosticators with what actually happens. Whether or not.

Saltwater Suzi and Cap'n Larry


"A sailboat is a fickle mistress. You’ve got to buy her things. You’ve got to understand everything about her. What you don’t know she’ll use against you." -Captain Larry


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.



LarryandSusanMacDonald is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #13 of 13 Old 02-25-2012
Senior Member
 
davidpm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Madison
Posts: 3,996
Thanks: 250
Thanked 62 Times in 53 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by L124C View Post
Well...If you are offshore, you ARE a weather station! What ever will happen, WILL HAPPEN, and you will be the first to know with 100% accuracy! Obviously, the point of a forecast is to anticipate conditions you may face BEFORE you are in them. The point of my OP was not that the NWS is not very accurate, but that it doesn't even agree with itself. Which is very scary! Maybe they are hedging their bets. At least half of the forecast will be correct!
I remember a story of a old time family doc before the days of tests that had a reputation of always being right about forecasting the sex of unborn babies.

It was uncanny he was always right.
His trick was to write girl down in the chart and tell the parents boy.
That way wherever happened he was right although sometimes the parents seemingly mis-remembered what he told them.

NOAA maybe used the same technique.
davidpm is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Weather Prediction Books? LandLocked66c Seamanship & Navigation 6 07-22-2011 11:24 AM
Velocity Prediction Program wwilson General Discussion (sailing related) 0 01-04-2010 11:08 AM
Can we agree?? camaraderie General Discussion (sailing related) 299 03-08-2007 07:37 PM

Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome