NWS prediction doesn't even agree with itself! - Page 2 - SailNet Community
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post #11 of 13 Old 02-25-2012
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Originally Posted by CalebD View Post
Keep in mind that most NOAA forecasts, either weather fax or even live buoy data give you the "highest 1/3 of the waves" which means that 2/3 of the waves could easily be higher then their forecast shows.
I was with you up to that sentence.

Significant wave height is defined as the average of the 1/3 highest waves. Some waves can be higher of course (see 'average') but not 2/3.

sail fast and eat well, dave S/V Auspicious

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post #12 of 13 Old 02-25-2012
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I firmly believe that NOAA weather stations do not have windows.

I also feel that, before computers took over, humans did a better job of predicting the weather. The human mind has a wonderful facility for recognizing patterns. The number crunching weather computer programs, while improving, still lack the pattern recognition which a trained weather forecaster has (or at least, used to have.) I feel that Chris Parker does a much better job than all the fancy NOAA gadgets.

If one is going to venture to sea, he needs to rely on himself for the weather forecast. Listen to the weather conditions over the course of several days, see where the fronts are and how fast and in what direction they are moving, take weather courses so you know how two fronts are likely to interact, watch the weather for several days before you venture out and make your own predictions. See how they agree with what actually happens where you are. The more you do this, the more accurate you will become. Nobody ever gets it right 100% of the time, but you'll probably do as well or better for your immediate vicinity than those who are attempting to predict on a much larger area.

It would be interesting if someone started a database which would compare predictions of various prognosticators with what actually happens. Whether or not.

Saltwater Suzi and Cap'n Larry

"A sailboat is a fickle mistress. You’ve got to buy her things. You’ve got to understand everything about her. What you don’t know she’ll use against you." -Captain Larry

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post #13 of 13 Old 02-25-2012
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Originally Posted by L124C View Post
Well...If you are offshore, you ARE a weather station! What ever will happen, WILL HAPPEN, and you will be the first to know with 100% accuracy! Obviously, the point of a forecast is to anticipate conditions you may face BEFORE you are in them. The point of my OP was not that the NWS is not very accurate, but that it doesn't even agree with itself. Which is very scary! Maybe they are hedging their bets. At least half of the forecast will be correct!
I remember a story of a old time family doc before the days of tests that had a reputation of always being right about forecasting the sex of unborn babies.

It was uncanny he was always right.
His trick was to write girl down in the chart and tell the parents boy.
That way wherever happened he was right although sometimes the parents seemingly mis-remembered what he told them.

NOAA maybe used the same technique.
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