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I think that you are looking at this a bit in the wrong way.
No one, not even NOAA with all its buoys, satellites and other weather stations can predict local weather as well as you can on the ground or the surface of the water. From your synopsis they said: "GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INNER WATERS" which means wind up to about 39 knots. They will never know how the weather will play out until it does but they only PREDICT what will happen in you local area. Basically, they got it right. You just need to know enough to read it all and figure out for yourself if there is a threat of bad weather you are willing to deal with, or not. The problem is that the more you read the more possible threats you might find and you might never leave the dock if you believed everything they forecast for your area. That is why looking at the broader weather picture is more then helpful.
Keep in mind that most NOAA forecasts, either weather fax or even live buoy data give you the "highest 1/3 of the waves" which means that 2/3 of the waves could easily be higher then their forecast shows.
Local conditions. Yes, you are your own weather station.
"The cure for anything is salt water~ sweat, tears, or the sea." ~Isak Denesen
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