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  #1  
Old 06-02-2012
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Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

I mean come on. Forecast for today: Mostly sunny, 10-15 knots.
Actual weather: Heavy rain, dark skies, zero knots of wind.
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Old 06-02-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulinVictoria View Post
I mean come on. Forecast for today: Mostly sunny, 10-15 knots.
Actual weather: Heavy rain, dark skies, zero knots of wind.
Not all of them:

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Old 06-02-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

It's funny because I used to do alot of work for Environment Canada, and I was always blown away by the amount of computing power they have at their disposal. At the same time I wondered why they still struggle to get it right.

Last summer I was sailing with a guy who has a meteorology background, and he brought up an interesting point: They are reliant on historical data to help them predict the weather. They are looking back at weather patterns from 40 years ago and trying to use that data to predict the behavior of systems today. Perhaps that old data is so far out of date that it is no longer relevant, and is even skewing their predictions. The planet and weather systems are very different than they used to be.

I don't know how much truth there is to that theory, but it sounds reasonable to me!
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Old 06-02-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

I'm not far from you and we had rain this morning but then it was mostly sunny and 10-15 knots of wind:-))
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Old 06-02-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

It brightened up, but no sign of 10-15kts. We motored out about 3 miles, drifted around with the sails limp for an hour or two, then motored back in.
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Changing patterns

I heard from someone the other day that the Coast Guard considers this the worst season ever for weather prediction on the West Coast.
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Old 06-02-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Depends on where you live. Some areas are easier to forecast than others. The atmospheric dynamics aren't as extreme, making your predictions more reliable. Some areas though, it's next to impossible to make a prediction with any level of confidence.

Around here, on stormy days, depending on atmospheric conditions we only get a % chance of rain/storms. It's like looking at a pot of water, just on the cusp of boiling, and trying to predict where the bubbles will form. Parts of the pot have a higher chance than others, due to uneven heating, scratches in the surface triggering nucleation....etc...

A pot of water is simple....the atmosphere however, is insanely complex.
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

I've heard a weatherman say that it is easier to predict weeks ahead in summer in a big sumer high, than it is to predict 24 hours ahead in winter,or during low pressure activity.
He said they only give the five day forcast because people demand it. He said after 24 hours , forecasts are useless.
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Old 06-03-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Then again, if the forecasters up that away have the same puter modules that they have down here, the Olympic mtns do not exist. So predecting weather here in the sound/southern salish sea area is tough, as the Olympics put some pressure on what will happen.

If the mtns on Vancouver island do not exist for your canadian forecasters, than have as much fun, or is that PHUN as they do down here!

Then you have a convergence zone that north of that line will be a north wind, south a south wind, in the middle, 200 yds or so, squat! Or literally with in feet go from a 25 knot southerly to a 25 knot northerly!, and said line does not change all day!

I do agree, that some of the forecast this year have been off more than normal! maybe they finally put them mountains in the puter program, and they are screwed up!

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Old 06-03-2012
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Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulinVictoria View Post
I mean come on. Forecast for today: Mostly sunny, 10-15 knots.
Actual weather: Heavy rain, dark skies, zero knots of wind.
Know what you mean....sure screwed up my paint job today....

Neal
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