Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it? - SailNet Community
 2Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 24 Old 06-02-2012 Thread Starter
Remember you're a womble
 
PaulinVictoria's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Sidney, BC
Posts: 2,301
Thanks: 11
Thanked 64 Times in 62 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

I mean come on. Forecast for today: Mostly sunny, 10-15 knots.
Actual weather: Heavy rain, dark skies, zero knots of wind.

Orange Crush
1974 C&C27 MkII

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
PaulinVictoria is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 24 Old 06-02-2012
Senior Member
 
flyingwelshman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 1,844
Thanks: 27
Thanked 31 Times in 24 Posts
Rep Power: 10
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulinVictoria View Post
I mean come on. Forecast for today: Mostly sunny, 10-15 knots.
Actual weather: Heavy rain, dark skies, zero knots of wind.
Not all of them:


1989 Hunter 30'
Southern Georgian Bay

Visualize the vastness of the oceans; the infinity of the heavens; the fickleness of the wind; the artistry of the craft and the frailty of the sailor. The oneness that may be achieved through the harmony of these things may lead one to enlightenment. - Flying Welshman
flyingwelshman is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #3 of 24 Old 06-02-2012
Senior Member
 
SchockT's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: North Vancouver, BC
Posts: 1,465
Thanks: 1
Thanked 29 Times in 27 Posts
Rep Power: 6
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

It's funny because I used to do alot of work for Environment Canada, and I was always blown away by the amount of computing power they have at their disposal. At the same time I wondered why they still struggle to get it right.

Last summer I was sailing with a guy who has a meteorology background, and he brought up an interesting point: They are reliant on historical data to help them predict the weather. They are looking back at weather patterns from 40 years ago and trying to use that data to predict the behavior of systems today. Perhaps that old data is so far out of date that it is no longer relevant, and is even skewing their predictions. The planet and weather systems are very different than they used to be.

I don't know how much truth there is to that theory, but it sounds reasonable to me!
SchockT is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
 
post #4 of 24 Old 06-02-2012
Courtney the Dancer
 
jrd22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: San Juan Islands., WA, USA
Posts: 3,968
Thanks: 5
Thanked 30 Times in 29 Posts
Rep Power: 17
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

I'm not far from you and we had rain this morning but then it was mostly sunny and 10-15 knots of wind:-))

John
SV Laurie Anne

1988 Brewer 40 Pilothouse

jrd22 is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #5 of 24 Old 06-02-2012 Thread Starter
Remember you're a womble
 
PaulinVictoria's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Sidney, BC
Posts: 2,301
Thanks: 11
Thanked 64 Times in 62 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

It brightened up, but no sign of 10-15kts. We motored out about 3 miles, drifted around with the sails limp for an hour or two, then motored back in.

Orange Crush
1974 C&C27 MkII

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
PaulinVictoria is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #6 of 24 Old 06-02-2012
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: BC's Sunshine Coast
Posts: 31
Thanks: 2
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Rep Power: 0
 
Send a message via Skype™ to doctorcam
Changing patterns

I heard from someone the other day that the Coast Guard considers this the worst season ever for weather prediction on the West Coast.

Albin 7.9 "Catharsis" - moored in Whiskey Slough, Pender Harbour
doctorcam is online now  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #7 of 24 Old 06-02-2012
SERIOUS SAILOR
 
JoeDiver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: DFW Metroplex
Posts: 483
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Depends on where you live. Some areas are easier to forecast than others. The atmospheric dynamics aren't as extreme, making your predictions more reliable. Some areas though, it's next to impossible to make a prediction with any level of confidence.

Around here, on stormy days, depending on atmospheric conditions we only get a % chance of rain/storms. It's like looking at a pot of water, just on the cusp of boiling, and trying to predict where the bubbles will form. Parts of the pot have a higher chance than others, due to uneven heating, scratches in the surface triggering nucleation....etc...

A pot of water is simple....the atmosphere however, is insanely complex.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

1982 Catalina 25 #2897
FK/SR/Traditional
Eagle Mountain Lake, Texas
JoeDiver is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #8 of 24 Old 06-02-2012
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 3,113
Thanks: 20
Thanked 48 Times in 46 Posts
Rep Power: 0
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

I've heard a weatherman say that it is easier to predict weeks ahead in summer in a big sumer high, than it is to predict 24 hours ahead in winter,or during low pressure activity.
He said they only give the five day forcast because people demand it. He said after 24 hours , forecasts are useless.
Brent Swain is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #9 of 24 Old 06-03-2012
Senior Member
 
blt2ski's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,162
Thanks: 1
Thanked 43 Times in 41 Posts
Rep Power: 14
   
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Then again, if the forecasters up that away have the same puter modules that they have down here, the Olympic mtns do not exist. So predecting weather here in the sound/southern salish sea area is tough, as the Olympics put some pressure on what will happen.

If the mtns on Vancouver island do not exist for your canadian forecasters, than have as much fun, or is that PHUN as they do down here!

Then you have a convergence zone that north of that line will be a north wind, south a south wind, in the middle, 200 yds or so, squat! Or literally with in feet go from a 25 knot southerly to a 25 knot northerly!, and said line does not change all day!

I do agree, that some of the forecast this year have been off more than normal! maybe they finally put them mountains in the puter program, and they are screwed up!

marty

She drives me boat,
I drives me dinghy!
blt2ski is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
post #10 of 24 Old 06-03-2012
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Nanaimo
Posts: 73
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Rep Power: 9
 
Re: Why are weather forecasters so........ crap at it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulinVictoria View Post
I mean come on. Forecast for today: Mostly sunny, 10-15 knots.
Actual weather: Heavy rain, dark skies, zero knots of wind.
Know what you mean....sure screwed up my paint job today....

Neal
ncapener is offline  
Quote Quick Reply Share with Facebook
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Paid Weather forecasters jpscontractor Cruising & Liveaboard Forum 2 08-12-2011 10:43 AM
Yeah... the forecasters aren't always right :) labatt General Discussion (sailing related) 11 11-09-2008 08:14 PM

Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome