Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: western Maine
Thanked 16 Times in 14 Posts
Rep Power: 6
Re: Hurricane Leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
This is an interesting and informative discussion.
I make a lot of my living from the weather, I subscribe to two paid weather services, and follow NWS and others. I'm always amazed that people mistake a forecast for reality.
In the last year, with the change over from La Nina to El Nino, with a seemingly unpredictable MJO, and whatever unknown factors, weather forecasts have seemed to me to be at a record breaking level of INaccuracy. I'm way out of the proposed path of Leslie here in Maine, but I will remain alert. I've seen two feet of fresh snow on the ground and coming down hard, while the weather services are still predicting 2-3 inches! Apparently there are no windows in the nearby NWS facility.
My point is, things can change rapidly, for better or worse, and forecasts are only that, educated guesses. The computer models have been all over the place for the last 6 months.
My second point is that when you round that last point of land, wherever it may be, and suddenly hit ocean swells, it is a new world. Swells have immense power, even when not very steep. Bays and sounds are really more like large lakes, with chop or whitecaps. Also, waves actually add and subtract as they meet or cross, it's possible for two or more to add and momentarily make an enormous wave, that may or may not last for more than a moment. If you are there at that moment, later may not matter much. With possibly two sets of swells from two storms, the chances of wave additions are greatly increased.
I like the suggestion of sailing the sound, and poking out into the swells just to feel the difference. Enjoy.