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  #31  
Old 09-07-2012
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

I do not profess to know how true the forecast will be but 30 knots gusting to 47 in the dark is NOT nothing

I would say there is about a 12 to 16 hour window of real bad stuff at and inconvenient time for your trip

When you add in the rain it is even worse




It is weather that has caused even the most famous LIS sound distance races to be shortened as to NOT leave the sound due the fatalities when it was not considered manly to shorten a race


Every spring and fall we end up in races in these conditions that generaly turn into trying to NOT break the boat or the crew as everthing you do is WAY HARD even in full daylight
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  #32  
Old 09-07-2012
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Re: Hurricane Leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

This is an interesting and informative discussion.

I make a lot of my living from the weather, I subscribe to two paid weather services, and follow NWS and others. I'm always amazed that people mistake a forecast for reality.

In the last year, with the change over from La Nina to El Nino, with a seemingly unpredictable MJO, and whatever unknown factors, weather forecasts have seemed to me to be at a record breaking level of INaccuracy. I'm way out of the proposed path of Leslie here in Maine, but I will remain alert. I've seen two feet of fresh snow on the ground and coming down hard, while the weather services are still predicting 2-3 inches! Apparently there are no windows in the nearby NWS facility.

My point is, things can change rapidly, for better or worse, and forecasts are only that, educated guesses. The computer models have been all over the place for the last 6 months.

My second point is that when you round that last point of land, wherever it may be, and suddenly hit ocean swells, it is a new world. Swells have immense power, even when not very steep. Bays and sounds are really more like large lakes, with chop or whitecaps. Also, waves actually add and subtract as they meet or cross, it's possible for two or more to add and momentarily make an enormous wave, that may or may not last for more than a moment. If you are there at that moment, later may not matter much. With possibly two sets of swells from two storms, the chances of wave additions are greatly increased.

I like the suggestion of sailing the sound, and poking out into the swells just to feel the difference. Enjoy.
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Old 09-07-2012
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

At present, it looks like there will be a real triple witching hour on Sat night from sundown to midnight, roughly. The tidal currents In LIS will be opposed to the incoming ocean swell, which is predicted to be at its highest then. Winds at 30 knots and thunderstorms. And it's dark.

Of course, it's only a forecast, but I'm pretty sure we can count on it getting dark.
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

Quote:
Originally Posted by peterchech View Post
Come on let's not exagerate please, don't try to tell me that anyone who goes sailing this weekend will have to be rescued. Especially in the sound, 25 knots winds and 2-3' seas are not exactly rare and dangerous...
Gezz. Ya know if this whole 'hurricane" thing wasn't an issue for you then you wouldn't have put this up here asking for advice brother

If you think the winds blowing to hard to go out, then chances are it is.
Don't listen to anyone else, you already know the answer in your heart.

Whatever you decide to do, just have fun & be safe!
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

Also, having sailed the length of LIS as a kid, about a thousand times, it is not a protected harbor. The sea conditions in the sound can get very nasty, particularly when tide and wind oppose and particularly anywhere in the vicinity of the Race.

We used to vacation on Fisher's Island when I was young and I recall just standing and watching the race boil from land. It can be impressive.
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

Forecast has moderated somewhat, but yes saturday night between sundown and midnight will be nasty. Coastal/Great Lakes Forecasts by Zone - East - New York, NY

Yes, the forecasts these past 6 months have been less accurate than a room full of monkeys, don't know what's up with that...

I think we will head out tom into the sound, and anchor on the north side of li for the night since wind will be prevailing southerly so there shouldn't be enough fetch for the chop to build up on the south of the sound... the fog would be a problem as well on saturday night, just too unsafe to push it all things considered. Sunday conditions should still be fresh and fun, in fact until tuesday things should be lively, if hurricane forecasting is worth anything at all...
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

I would look to be inside Port Jeff or Mount Sinai harbors and then move on Sunday am when it passes
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Old 09-07-2012
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

Peterchech, it seems that you already made up your mind. Keep us posted on your travels. I think at this point we're all curious on how this weekend will turn out.

Cheers
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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

Quote:
Originally Posted by peterchech View Post

I think we will head out tom into the sound, and anchor on the north side of li for the night since wind will be prevailing southerly so there shouldn't be enough fetch for the chop to build up on the south of the sound... the fog would be a problem as well on saturday night, just too unsafe to push it all things considered. Sunday conditions should still be fresh and fun, in fact until tuesday things should be lively, if hurricane forecasting is worth anything at all...
If you're looking for a secure hidey-hole tomorrow night, they don't come much more snug than The Sand Hole... I love that spot in a blow...

Only downside might be, as with any other anchorage, it being a Saturday night, and the prospect of sharing such a popular spot with some clueless (power)boaters, raft-ups, etc... Hopefully, most folks will be heeding the forecast, and not inclined to ride out such weather at anchor, but you never know...

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Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?

The Sand Hole is not far from where the 34' Silverton capsized on July 4th this year drowning 3 children.

I have the utmost respect for Jon Eisberg and I know that he has many more miles under his keel then I can ever hope to achieve, BUT I would not recommend using the Sand Hole in anything less then ideal conditions. There is a rock jetty at the entrance that sort of shows on that chart snippet but I would not trust the depth readings.
Back in June a local sailor who had been going there for 25 years holed his O'Day 37' on these rocks: O'Day 37 1982 Total Loss - SailboatOwners.com
CTL.

The best thing about the Sand Hole is that it is right off the Sound so you don't waste a lot of time looking for shelter several miles into the harbors. It is a beautiful spot too but with so many other places to anchor (inside Oyster Bay, Huntington Bay etc.) that are easy and safe to get to and protected I'd stay away.
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