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-   -   Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned? (http://www.sailnet.com/forums/general-discussion-sailing-related/91787-hurricane-leslie-coming-north-need-i-concerned.html)

peterchech 09-06-2012 12:20 PM

Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
Hurricane Leslie to affect Bermuda, New England and Canada - Weather Wisdom - Boston.com

I'm taking a trip Saturday with my father and 2 others on his C&C 32 from New York Harbor to Block island, taking the south side of long island route. (you may remember my thread a few months ago when planning this trip). We want some offshore type experience, and plan on going 24 hours straight through to block. Once there on Sunday, we will decide whether to continue on to Nantucket and back to NY through the south side or just to Newport and back through the sound.

Anyway, wave heights are predicted to increase through the weekend, hitting 7-10 by Monday. I assume they won't be breaking, but is that a correct assumption? Once we get into the shoals surrounding nantucket, assuming we go, wouldn't the waves start getting pretty steep as they hit shallower water?

flyingwelshman 09-06-2012 12:43 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
It sounds as though Leslie is going to be a concern over the whole Eastern Seaboard.

Hurricane Leslie dawdles as Bermuda braces

DRFerron 09-06-2012 12:47 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
7-10 foot wave heights are nothing to sneeze at. Remember that a percentage will be MORE than 10 feet. That's considerable.

And, I wouldn't assume anything when dealing with a hurricane.

JonEisberg 09-06-2012 01:19 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
I'd give serious consideration to heading up LI Sound, instead...

The problem with your proposed route, is that a potential bailout in the event of a problem such as Shinnecock Inlet is taken off the table with a big swell running, you're committed to proceeding all the way to Montauk... No way you want to count on being able to enter any of the south shore inlets with a significant swell running, if you should need or desire to do so...

Once you get to Block, other than decent-sized rollers in Block Island Sound, proceeding to Nantucket should pose no problem... The swell won't really find its way into Nantucket Sound to any significant extent. This assumes you'd go via Vineyard Sound, of course - no way would I endorse passing south of MV and going back in Muskeget Channel with a big storm offshore...

DRFerron 09-06-2012 01:32 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
All those "no ways" in Jon's post would tell me, if it was me, that I should choose another weekend.

Flybyknight 09-06-2012 02:06 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by peterchech (Post 918797)
Hurricane Leslie to affect Bermuda, New England and Canada - Weather Wisdom - Boston.com

I'm taking a trip Saturday with my father and 2 others on his C&C 32 from New York Harbor to Block island, taking the south side of long island route. (you may remember my thread a few months ago when planning this trip). We want some offshore type experience, and plan on going 24 hours straight through to block. Once there on Sunday, we will decide whether to continue on to Nantucket and back to NY through the south side or just to Newport and back through the sound.

Anyway, wave heights are predicted to increase through the weekend, hitting 7-10 by Monday. I assume they won't be breaking, but is that a correct assumption? Once we get into the shoals surrounding nantucket, assuming we go, wouldn't the waves start getting pretty steep as they hit shallower water?


Postpone the trip.

Minnewaska 09-06-2012 02:18 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
I'm seeing up to 9 foot seas on Saturday and, in my experience, when produced by an offshore tropical system with onshore winds, they will only be worse than predicted. Not to mention, I'm seeing a cold front passing through too.

I've cancelled my weekend in Block, let alone considering the trip you have planned.

For what it's worth, cutting between the Vineyard and Nantucket is only for very good weather, with little to zero concern for anything going wrong. Its very easy to get in trouble there. The disadvantage to Vineyard Sound is having to time the currents or give up as much as 3 kts of boat speed till you pass the Chop.

peterchech 09-06-2012 03:02 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
But are 9' seas necessarily dangerous? I mean, if not accompanied by storm force winds wouldn't they just be big swells, not necessarily dangerous at all?

If I go through li sound instead of south of li, will there be any issues in entering salt pond on block? (I assume the swell would be on the south side, not the north, so the channel should be passable?)

peterchech 09-06-2012 03:03 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Minnewaska (Post 918846)
I'm seeing up to 9 foot seas on Saturday and, in my experience, when produced by an offshore tropical system with onshore winds, they will only be worse than predicted. Not to mention, I'm seeing a cold front passing through too.

What does it mean that a cold front is passing through?

Tempest 09-06-2012 03:50 PM

Re: Hurricane leslie coming north, need I be concerned?
 
For all the reasons Jon stated, I wouldn't be picking this weekend as my 1st offshore trip with a new crew..if that's what this is. The extent of the effect Leslie will have is still largely unknown to rely 100 % on the forecasts yet IMO. You could do the inside route and then decide once you get to the eastern end of the sound, what your next move will be.

Regarding 9' Seas being dangerous... 9 ft long period following seas are managable, but I don't think that's what you'll be seeing.

9 foot beam seas can be downright exhausting.. You'd be traveling east, with winds and seas out of the south..with the coast of long island as a lee shore. S Winds forecast to be 15-20 with gusts to 30 in the afternoon on Saturday. Seas building to at least 9' ( Moriches to Montauk out 20 miles)


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