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post #1 of 13 Old 10-22-2012 Thread Starter
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Climate change?

Now that I've got your attention..

I've been watching the Synoptic (Mean Sea Level Pressure) Charts down here at least once a week for a couple of years now to make sure, best as I possibly can, that I don't scare off the First Mate or any of our other guests by suggesting we set sail on a nice sunny day smack into a major frontal system. It seems, FWIW, that the Met Bureau forecasts usually only line up with the Charts a couple of days out, but I digress..

We used to get pretty steady northerlies during winter (just gone) year-in year-out but I've noticed this year that the Highs seem to be further north than they usually are, meaning we now get more than enough wind one day followed by absolutely nothing the next - basically Hobart's weather - meaning TDW, Chall, etc. must have had something more like what we used to get...

What have you noticed where you are? More of the same??

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"Honestly, I don't know why seamen persist in getting wrecked in some of the outlandish places they do, when they can do it in a nice place like Fiji." -- John Caldwell, "Desperate Voyage"
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post #2 of 13 Old 10-22-2012
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Re: Climate change?

Australia has been moving toward the equator for millions of years. You're just getting a little closer.



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post #3 of 13 Old 10-22-2012
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Re: Climate change?

Just listen to the noises of your hull. When the termites start to migrate south, its time to start worrrying.
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post #4 of 13 Old 10-22-2012
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Re: Climate change?

There are several studies that indicate winds speeds are slowing down or the presence of particulr winds are becoming less frequent. The University of Hawaii published a study demoinstrating a decreasing frequency and velocity of the North East Trade Winds. The University of Iowa has performed a simmilar study for mid-lattitude prevailing westerlies. The University of Bejing found similar occurences in China. Indiana University found world surface wind velocity decreasing due to trees.


At the same time, a University in Australia found winds speeds increasing over the ocean.


I am not sure but I think there is a consensus that overall, global surface winds are descreasing. Clearly this must be related to a decreased pressure differential which in turn affecs the gradient wind. Who knows if it is climate change. Maybe it is--Maybe it isn't.

One thing is true, the earth rate of rotation is slowing just al little every year-this has nothing to do with climate change. As the earths rotation slows over time so goes the change in Coriolis effect and therefore direction of winds.

There isn't a device on this world that can measure the indifference I have for that statement.
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post #5 of 13 Old 10-22-2012
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Re: Climate change?

Hard to say Hartley. I have noticed that winters seem to be drier but then Australia has been largely in drought for the past decade while last summer, when the drought broke we had a real wet one. The NSW coast tends to have fairly entrenched weather patterns, our summer prevailing is a nor easter (heat inversion and all that, sucking air in over the coast) with sou east changes coming through at irregular intervals as the cold fronts move up from the southern ocean. I'll watch what happens over this coming summer and we'll see if it follows regular patterns.

Now OK so it does seem to me that we are having steamier summers hinting at the tropical weather moving south but I have no proof at my finger tips as to whether that is climate change related or not. My belief is that it is but then I am one who is content to accpet that climate change is happening and that we as a species do have something to do with that.

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post #6 of 13 Old 10-22-2012 Thread Starter
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Re: Climate change?

Ok, Ok.. it was never my intention for this to become another "The Sky Is Warming!.." thread. There's plenty of them over on Off-Topic if people was to go have a look!!

What I was interested in was if anyone has noticed any trends in their local weather of late, if not maybe it's just a regional phenomenon.

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Originally Posted by tdw View Post
Hard to say Hartley. I have noticed that winters seem to be drier but then Australia has been largely in drought for the past decade while last summer, when the drought broke we had a real wet one. The NSW coast tends to have fairly entrenched weather patterns, our summer prevailing is a nor easter (heat inversion and all that, sucking air in over the coast) with sou east changes coming through at irregular intervals as the cold fronts move up from the southern ocean. I'll watch what happens over this coming summer and we'll see if it follows regular patterns.
Thanks, TD - I hadn't considered how much the drought might have affected things. You might be right.

Down here, our winters tend to be stable with summer variable - but it's certinly been a wet year this year. It'd be interesting to see if anything much changes up your way.

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"Honestly, I don't know why seamen persist in getting wrecked in some of the outlandish places they do, when they can do it in a nice place like Fiji." -- John Caldwell, "Desperate Voyage"

Last edited by Classic30; 10-22-2012 at 06:20 PM.
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post #7 of 13 Old 10-23-2012
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Re: Climate change?

According to NOAA, the wind velocities on the East Coast of the UNited States have decreased over time during the past 100 years.

There isn't a device on this world that can measure the indifference I have for that statement.
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post #8 of 13 Old 10-23-2012
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Re: Climate change?

Part of the problem with all "normal" weather is "normal" is figured on averages. We don't have more than a 100 years of data to figure what "normal" is.

As good as the Acu-weather idiots on the news think they are no one can tell you what the weather will be more than a few days out.

Maybe after 10,000 years of weather data has been collected humans might be able do better.
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post #9 of 13 Old 10-24-2012 Thread Starter
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Re: Climate change?

Hmm...

It's not directly related to what I've noticed lately (maybe), but it does seem that something is going on:


Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround

The chief climate forecaster says it is the biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.

"Come September, all of a sudden, the temperature started to cool down, the trade winds started to become a little bit enhanced, and the cloud patterns and other indicators like that headed away from El Nino," the bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said.

"So this is what we're looking at as climatologists, giving us the heads up about what may happen over the next few months, and indeed what we're seeing now is a backing off from those El Nino thresholds."

Dr Watkins says they are not sure why there has been a cooling down.

"It actually is quite a unique situation if we end up not going into an El Nino event," he said.

"It'll sort of be the biggest turnaround that we've actually seen in our records going back to about 1950, so quite unprecedented."

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"Honestly, I don't know why seamen persist in getting wrecked in some of the outlandish places they do, when they can do it in a nice place like Fiji." -- John Caldwell, "Desperate Voyage"

Last edited by Classic30; 10-24-2012 at 10:46 PM.
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post #10 of 13 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Climate change?

Quote:
As good as the Acu-weather idiots on the news think they are no one can tell you what the weather will be more than a few days out.
OTOH:

Quote:
A four-day forecast today is better than a two-day forecast was back in the mid 1980's. And it gets better ... "Our six-day forecasts are as good as our three-day forecasts used to be,"
I think the talking heads on the TV weather should do themselves a favor and try to educate the public about what probabilties mean and the limits of weather forcasting.

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