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  #151  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Quote:
Originally Posted by skygazer View Post
...They will no doubt say "we don't want to panic people", but waiting till the last minute is the sure way to cause panic. Longer warning would allow stores to get in food, batteries, generators etc and make less panic and more readiness...
While I roll my eyes at the bureaucratic nature of NOAA's explanation, I think that it's a real stretch to suggest that there has not been adequate warning for this storm. It's all we've been hearing about for the last week. Any prediction outside a week is very iffy because so much can change.

You can gripe all you want about them not calling it a hurricane, but the fact is that we've been told very explicitly what level of wind and rain to expect.

If this thing dies out faster than expected, are you then going to gripe that they hyped it too much? Weather forecasting is an inexact science, and some people have unrealistic expectations. I frankly am amazed at how good these predictions have gotten in recent years.

And while it's easy as an outsider to poke fun at the bureaucratic explanations, beneath the surface there is probably a very good explanation that has to do with preventing duplication of effort, allocating forecasting and emergency resources with different expertise most efficiently, and/or preventing mixed and conflicting messages from different parts of NOAA.

The people who design these systems care about protecting our lives and keeping commerce moving. Yes, even government employees and contractors are human, and many of them are putting in a lot of extra hours right now to help us. God bless them!
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  #152  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Quote:
If the National Hurricane Center and the weather services were not busy playing games with our tax dollars, the Bounty would have clearly known the risks - it was Thursday for heavens sake. They were in New London, CT. If you haven't been there, it's sheltered and deep, deep enough for HUGE tankers to go way up river.
Give me a break. Assumption not based on any evidence. Stop pontificating. Your congressman has more important things to worry about than your musings about the NHC

Boat US policies are paying or 1/2 the haul out costs for my friends who ad tenor bats pulled prior to this storm

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  #153  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

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Originally Posted by skygazer View Post
If the National Hurricane Center and the weather services were not busy playing games with our tax dollars, the Bounty would have clearly known the risks - it was Thursday for heavens sake. They were in New London, CT. If you haven't been there, it's sheltered and deep, deep enough for HUGE tankers to go way up river...
This is one of the silliest things I have read here. You are suggesting that their foolish decision to head out into the storm was the government's fault? What kind of nanny state do you think we should have?

I think the weather service does an amazing job, and has gotten a lot better in recent years. As sailors, we all reap the benefits. You're really grasping at straws.
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  #154  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Went for one last check on the boats this am. It was 1 hour past low and the tide never went out. 1 hour before high boats on the hard were floating. We have about 6' more piling before the docks go free. Going to be a huge mess in the am.
Jim
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  #155  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

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Originally Posted by weathertrack View Post
the link does not work well, here is a pic


Thanks for posting that, absolutely mind-boggling...
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  #156  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
This is one of the silliest things I have read here. You are suggesting that their foolish decision to head out into the storm was the government's fault? What kind of nanny state do you think we should have?

I think the weather service does an amazing job, and has gotten a lot better in recent years. As sailors, we all reap the benefits. You're really grasping at straws.
It's been reported that the Bounty was in constant contact with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it's fair to assume that they had the best information that was available. I'd say we need to wait until we know more about how, why, and what decisions were made before we start assigning blame.

Last edited by steve77; 10-29-2012 at 01:41 PM.
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  #157  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
This is one of the silliest things I have read here. You are suggesting that their foolish decision to head out into the storm was the government's fault? What kind of nanny state do you think we should have?

I think the weather service does an amazing job, and has gotten a lot better in recent years. As sailors, we all reap the benefits. You're really grasping at straws.
I agree with you completely, the weather sciences have been making steady and remarkable improvements, I really like and trust them. I merely believe they should share the knowledge in front of them, not pick and choose what they think we should know. That is being a nanny.

I'm not suggesting the government should stop boats from going out, only that the captain should have had the full weather picture to base his decisions on. I'm sure he had pressure to follow a schedule.

I don't know that it was a "foolish decision" on his part, he may have been informed that the storm was going out to sea, that's certainly what accuweather said.

I sincerely hope the storm is over hyped and dies suddenly to a fizzle, that would make me delighted and I'd have zero complaints. It could still happen, the vortex is involved in a delicate balance right now with all the different air masses about it and the changing water temps.
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  #158  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Question to all:
If you owned a boat that was in the condition Bounty was reported to be in here, would you have made the trek to FL?

For those who would have, would you have headed out to sea knowing what we knew at that time?

Latest reports I've seen is the hurricane has strengthened and now is clocking 90 knot winds. The highest prediction at first was 80, then 85 and now it hits 90. Not good for those in its path.
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  #159  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Quote:
Originally Posted by skygazer View Post
...I don't know that it was a "foolish decision" on his part, he may have been informed that the storm was going out to sea, that's certainly what accuweather said...
Even if the eye of the storm was heading out to sea, the storm was 1000 miles wide! You're not going to sail around a storm like that.

If you're going to accuse NOAA of withholding facts, you had better back it up with some facts of your own. NOAA has hundreds of web pages to inundate people with information. The issue isn't lack of information, it's information overload that allows people to pick and choose which predictions that they want to believe.

There is no hidden information. Not in the Intenet age.
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  #160  
Old 10-29-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Although this says plan view, it should have said elevation view. It's of a vertical slice north to south through the center of Sandy' GFS solution just off the coast of NJ.

You can see how complex the warm core interaction is with the surrounding air masses, I'm not kidding when I say it could and I hope it does suddenly die on the vine, well, not die but stop intensifying or even fizzle.

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