Halloween Hurricane - Page 5 - SailNet Community
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post #41 of 265 Old 10-24-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Hi,

Hurricane Sandy's Eye is currently between Jamaica and Cuba. We'd like to share with you how wave development is predicted for the next few days. It is a GRIB forecast from 2012-10-24 to 2012-10-29, updated every hour, data provided by NOAA:


Safe Sailing

Daniela
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post #42 of 265 Old 10-25-2012 Thread Starter
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Our last best hope for a miss has caved in, GFS has flipped and has 95% of the ensembles hitting the east coast. Here is a screen shot from Weather Underground of this mornings (Thurs. 10/25/12) model runs:



Am I happy? Absolutely not, I wanted a fizzle.

Domestic animals and wildlife often give signs of what the weather is going to do. Does the wildlife out here in the country indicate coming bad weather? Well, you need to know that I'm too far northwest for nut trees. Not so many gray squirrels live here, they are more along the coast. This is a hunting community, not a city park, squirrels here are wild and wary.

This morning is beautiful and sunny, calm before the storm. I went out and gray squirrels came pouring out of my sailboats and running away in all directions. I counted at least seven (7), by far the most I've ever seen together in my life in the wild. IIRC it was in '07/'08 that I last saw gray squirrels breaking into buildings, we had the biggest winter here in a decade.

I've never had squirrels go into my boats before, never! Didn't even think they could get up there. Not sure if this means a big winter or just a big storm, but the behavior is so extreme I have to guess both.

I'm not happy that lots of models are showing a hit on Maine. Even if it's a miss, I'm sure we'll get a secondary nor'easter out of it. My least favorite storm type, when anything can happen and forecasts mean nothing.

I hope this is not setting up a pattern of extreme nor'easters for Maine for the winter.

Ha Ha! LOL, I just realized the squirrels are getting into boats! Boats! Do they expect flooding! I'm at the top of a high hill, so they left the trees, climbed the steepest hill, and got inside of boats. The opposite of rats leaving a sinking ship. Weird, and a bit scary.
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post #43 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

NOAA is providing an early forecast prediction with the highest probability that landfall will be centered around NYC;



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post #44 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

I bow to the superior knowledge on this one forecasted by the european model. It has it bullseying my home right now.

Dave


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post #45 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Its been chaos here on the NJ shore. People shrugged this storm off as if it were nothing. Now people cant get their boats pulled in time. Even the models showing her pushed out to sea have all changed favoring a swing to the west. In my opinion, IF it does make landfall in the Jersey Shore it is going to be devastating.


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post #46 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

All the computer models have been slowly changing to predict an East Coast hit, somewhere from Del. to NY. The worst news is that it is supposed to run into the cold front and stall for close to a week, dropping mega amounts of rain. AP is calling it :Frankenstorm." :News from The Associated Press

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post #47 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

My boat is coming out of the water Saturday. This is why I hate waiting till the end of the season.


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post #48 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

skygazer,
Today The Weather Channel, the fast food source of weather info discussed the differences between the GFS and Euro models, how they initially diverged but are now beginning to agree on a landfall in the northeast.
That is pretty bizarre about your gray squirrels finding your boat. They must know something, or did you leave a bag of peanuts on your boat?
I hate to say this but if Sandy is coming I hope she hits north and east of NYC. My boat is scheduled for haul out on 11/4/12 and not before then. This one is going to be a bit of a nail biter!

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post #49 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Caleb, might be worth thinking about running up the Hudson to Haverstraw, Esopus Creek, or even higher up into the canal system. According to the news, Bloomberg is talking evacuation.

Speaking of the critters, the birds have been at the feeder like there's no tomorrow for a couple of days now.

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Last edited by smurphny; 10-25-2012 at 03:13 PM.
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post #50 of 265 Old 10-25-2012
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Re: Halloween Hurricane

Ugh... I have a boat survey and sea trial scheduled for Tuesday. Guess I could get a chance to really see how she handles. Ha.

Hopefully the Bay won't get any more than some good wind and chop.
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