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skygazer 10-22-2012 09:32 PM

Halloween Hurricane
 
The European (ECMWF), generally considered the most accurate of the major computer models, is showing a Katrina type hurricane hitting the mid Atlantic and New England on or about Halloween.

Sure, it may not happen, the GFS says it goes out to sea. But I think we should all be made aware of the possibility so we can plan how to get ready if it should begin to aim at us. I'm concerned that the possibility is being ignored in case it doesn't happen. OK, I hope it doesn't. But I think we should all make our own decision about considering the problem.

I'm having a hard time typing and listening to the debate. So here is a photo of the model as constructed today. Notice the extremely low central pressure, and just to the west, a trough of arctic cold dropping down from Alaska/Siberia/northern Canada. So the coldest arctic cold meeting the warmest tropical air on our coast:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/p...nHurricane.jpg

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/p...nHurricane.jpg

Sail The World 10-22-2012 09:36 PM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
are you talking about that little guy out there???

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...51W5_NL_sm.gif

skygazer 10-22-2012 09:47 PM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sail The World (Post 937277)
are you talking about that little guy out there???


Yes, that is the GFS solution. Hope it's true. I'm merely reporting on the European model, and showing what it shows. Crazy? Probably. Would you like to know that the possibility is there or have someone else decide what you should know? I prefer knowing the possibilities and adjusting so I'm as prepared as possible. I believe that it (tropical depression 19) will be named "Sandy", maybe before the debate is over.

Hey, it's the unpredictable weather, debating it won't change it.

JonEisberg 10-22-2012 10:26 PM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by skygazer (Post 937284)
Yes, that is the GFS solution. Hope it's true. I'm merely reporting on the European model, and showing what it shows. Crazy? Probably. Would you like to know that the possibility is there or have someone else decide what you should know? I prefer knowing the possibilities and adjusting so I'm as prepared as possible. I believe that it (tropical depression 19) will be named "Sandy", maybe before the debate is over.

Hey, it's the unpredictable weather, debating it won't change it.

Sandy and #19 are different systems, and looks like the former definitely bears watching...

Sure hope the folks with the NARC Rally aren't too determined to adhere to an on time departure this year...

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...01218_5day.gif

skygazer 10-22-2012 10:59 PM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JonEisberg (Post 937297)
Sandy and #19 are different systems, and looks like the former definitely bears watching...

Thank you for that clarification! I'm glossing while trying to follow the debate and now the comments. I just wanted to share the incredible forecast. I didn't believe in last Halloween's snowstorm either. :o

MARC2012 10-23-2012 08:07 AM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
Weather men & politicians ,now there is a tough choice which one to trust.marc

Capt-T 10-23-2012 10:02 AM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
skygazer... as a Minnesota sailor, I typically don't worry about these hurricanes on the coast. But, as luck would have it, I'm going to be in Boston through Halloween next week. I did check out the ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW website, but it's imagery is a bit larger (all of North America). What site did you get your narrowed down east coast isobars and windspeed images from?

CarbonSink62 10-23-2012 11:01 AM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
A less porous border with Canada would keep this a Tropical Storm.

I'm just sayin'.

skygazer 10-23-2012 11:17 AM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Capt-T (Post 937453)
skygazer... as a Minnesota sailor, I typically don't worry about these hurricanes on the coast. But, as luck would have it, I'm going to be in Boston through Halloween next week. I did check out the ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW website, but it's imagery is a bit larger (all of North America). What site did you get your narrowed down east coast isobars and windspeed images from?

Premium Weather Subscription |Weatherbell Analytics LLC ...it's a paid service. Dr. Ryan Maue has set up a lot of excellent model browsing pages. Here is a free site that might help, has tons of stuff but I don't use it so I'm not sure what they have:

e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL

The deep cold coming down to the west will either drive the storm out to sea, or draw it in. The model runs show it going right over the great lakes, so it could hit your home area also. The cold could also produce another Halloween snowstorm, and even if the main storm goes out to sea it could feed back energy to the cold and cause a nor'easter. Weather Bell has been warning about a Halloween storm for weeks. I didn't believe it, just had one last year.

I pulled my boat on last stormy Friday, didn't like to try to do it and take my mast down in the wind and rain, but even less did I like to wait. I needed to have a good high tide for the pull out, Friday was a new moon tide. By the grace of God the downpours let up when we did the boat work, then started back up as soon as it was on my trailer, with lightning and very high winds all night long

There is a full moon rising on Monday, when the storm is expected to make landfall or to go by, either way causing storm surge on top of a full moon extra high tide - though at least not a lunar perigee which would be even worse. Nevertheless, I wouldn't want my boat short tied to anything, except of course where it is now, in my backyard on a trailer! :D

skygazer 10-23-2012 11:19 AM

Re: Halloween Hurricane
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CarbonSink62 (Post 937478)
A less porous border with Canada would keep this a Tropical Storm.

I'm just sayin'.

Could you explain that, or would it ruin the humor? I don't get your meaning. :o


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