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Halloween Hurricane

29K views 264 replies 42 participants last post by  chef2sail 
#1 ·
The European (ECMWF), generally considered the most accurate of the major computer models, is showing a Katrina type hurricane hitting the mid Atlantic and New England on or about Halloween.

Sure, it may not happen, the GFS says it goes out to sea. But I think we should all be made aware of the possibility so we can plan how to get ready if it should begin to aim at us. I'm concerned that the possibility is being ignored in case it doesn't happen. OK, I hope it doesn't. But I think we should all make our own decision about considering the problem.

I'm having a hard time typing and listening to the debate. So here is a photo of the model as constructed today. Notice the extremely low central pressure, and just to the west, a trough of arctic cold dropping down from Alaska/Siberia/northern Canada. So the coldest arctic cold meeting the warmest tropical air on our coast:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp140/snowstargazer/Weather/HalloweenHurricane.jpg

 
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#3 · (Edited)
are you talking about that little guy out there???
Yes, that is the GFS solution. Hope it's true. I'm merely reporting on the European model, and showing what it shows. Crazy? Probably. Would you like to know that the possibility is there or have someone else decide what you should know? I prefer knowing the possibilities and adjusting so I'm as prepared as possible. I believe that it (tropical depression 19) will be named "Sandy", maybe before the debate is over.

Hey, it's the unpredictable weather, debating it won't change it.
 
#7 ·
skygazer... as a Minnesota sailor, I typically don't worry about these hurricanes on the coast. But, as luck would have it, I'm going to be in Boston through Halloween next week. I did check out the ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW website, but it's imagery is a bit larger (all of North America). What site did you get your narrowed down east coast isobars and windspeed images from?
 
#9 ·
Premium Weather Subscription |Weatherbell Analytics LLC ...it's a paid service. Dr. Ryan Maue has set up a lot of excellent model browsing pages. Here is a free site that might help, has tons of stuff but I don't use it so I'm not sure what they have:

e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL

The deep cold coming down to the west will either drive the storm out to sea, or draw it in. The model runs show it going right over the great lakes, so it could hit your home area also. The cold could also produce another Halloween snowstorm, and even if the main storm goes out to sea it could feed back energy to the cold and cause a nor'easter. Weather Bell has been warning about a Halloween storm for weeks. I didn't believe it, just had one last year.

I pulled my boat on last stormy Friday, didn't like to try to do it and take my mast down in the wind and rain, but even less did I like to wait. I needed to have a good high tide for the pull out, Friday was a new moon tide. By the grace of God the downpours let up when we did the boat work, then started back up as soon as it was on my trailer, with lightning and very high winds all night long

There is a full moon rising on Monday, when the storm is expected to make landfall or to go by, either way causing storm surge on top of a full moon extra high tide - though at least not a lunar perigee which would be even worse. Nevertheless, I wouldn't want my boat short tied to anything, except of course where it is now, in my backyard on a trailer! :D
 
#14 ·
I think right now you are being a bit of an alarmist. It is prudent to watch for storms, hurricane tracks etc, this one doesnt appear to be anywhere near the eastern US unless and number of doubtful; predictions line up. Fronts ( steering currents) are coming through this area every three days now ( fall weather) which usually shove these storms away from the coast. This opposed to summer when there is frequently little movement and a blocking Bermuda high pressure system

This is not to say that it couldnt happen and it is prudent to keep on the alert,

Tropical Storm Sandy : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

Tropical Storm Sandy Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 23, 2012
the cloud pattern of the storm is gradually becoming better
organized...with a large curved band feature evident over the
eastern and southern portions of the circulation. Using a blend of
SFMR and flight-level wind data from the hurricane hunters...the
current intensity is set to 45 kt. The upper-level outflow is well
defined over the eastern part of the cyclone but is restricted to
the northwest. Given the environment of low shear and high oceanic
heat content...Sandy is likely to strengthen into a hurricane in 12
to 24 hours...and the official forecast is close to the
statistical-dynamical lgem guidance. The interaction of the
circulation of Sandy with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba
should cause some weakening. Afterwards...the dynamical guidance
shows the vertical shear increasing to near 30 kt which should
limit re-intensification. Around day 5...the GFS output suggests
that Sandy will be deriving energy from baroclinic sources...and
the NHC forecast shows the system as Post-tropical by that time.
Fixes from the aircraft show a north-northeastward motion...or about
020/4. As the mid-level ridge to the north of Sandy gradually
weakens...the tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward to
northward with some increase in forward speed. In around 2-3
days...the track could Bend a little to the left due to the
influence of an upper-level trough just to the west of Sandy. This
is shown most prominently in the 0600 UTC GFS run...which has
shifted westward from its previous solution. The official track
forecast is nudged westward from the previous one in the 48 to 72
hour time frame. This is very close to the latest dynamical track
model consensus...and also similar to the FSU superensemble
prediction.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 23/1500z 13.8n 77.8w 45 kt 50 mph
12h 24/0000z 14.9n 77.6w 55 kt 65 mph
24h 24/1200z 16.9n 77.2w 65 kt 75 mph
36h 25/0000z 18.9n 77.0w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 25/1200z 21.4n 76.8w 60 kt 70 mph...on north coast of Cuba
72h 26/1200z 25.6n 76.5w 60 kt 70 mph
96h 27/1200z 28.5n 74.5w 60 kt 70 mph
120h 28/1200z 31.0n 70.5w 60 kt 70 mph...Post-tropical
 
#15 ·
I think right now you are being a bit of an alarmist.
Then I'm not communicating very clearly, or perhaps you mean the computer model graphic is alarming, which is how I feel and why I posted it. I have not made a forecast, nor indicated that I believe it will happen. Since all the other tropical storms went out to sea I expect this one to follow the pattern. However, upon returning from getting my sailboat out I was shocked to see the graphic I posted at the start of this thread. I wanted others to be aware of the possibility. That is a graphic I never want to see, but I would expect it in Sept. if it was coming, not almost Nov.

I have a paid premium subscription to accuweather. I feel that I should have been made aware that there was a possibility of such a large storm forming and coming my way. It's not like a "partly cloudy" forecast, it's a potential serious storm that even if it comes close, or jump feeds a nor'easter, I want to know. I've been burned numerous times with the type of weathermen who only tell you what model they decide to use, and then we get clobbered by something that was on their screen but they decided we didn't need to know about.

Your long quote from weather underground is a good example of "weather speak". I detest it. Einstein said something like "if you can't explain it to a 7 year old, you don't understand it yourself". Of course, he only dealt in easy to understand subjects. :rolleyes:

The graphic I posted is from the ECMFW which has been shown to be more accurate than the GFS. Our weather services generally follow the GFS blindly, often to the hurt of final users. If you think "weather underground" is giving insights beyond NWS, then you might be interested in comparing this NWS forecast (derived from the GFS) to the one you posted:

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12
TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT
020/4. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN AROUND 2-3
DAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY. THIS
IS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72
HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.9N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.9N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 31.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Me again, I hope it does go out to sea, but I make different decisions when expecting clear weather than I do if a huge storm is lurking nearby. I like to know about the lurkers, thought you might to.
 
#16 ·
#18 ·
Your long quote from weather underground is a good example of "weather speak". I detest it. Einstein said something like "if you can't explain it to a 7 year old, you don't understand it yourself". Of course, he only dealt in easy to understand subjects.-skywalker
Sir your condesending attitude is counterproductive.

Since you are claiming to be such the expert in determining which weather synopsis has the greatest validity and you are so far superior in readuing the "correct" sites I will stand in awe of your ability and stand corrected as who am I to dispute Albert Einstein. I am a mere mortal.

Lets see if you are right. The next two days will tell. If so I humble myself If not I expect the same from you.

Dave
 
#20 ·
Dave, I'm sorry I offended you. I didn't mean to. I'm not a weather expert, I'm a consumer. I was upset that I hadn't heard about the storm possibility from accuweather, which I pay for and look at every day.

I did not make the judgment that the euro is more accurate than the GFS. That is something I gleaned from charts of accuracy results made by scientists studying computer model results. I imagine you could google it and find that for yourself. I'd post a graph comparing results for a decade, but I'm not sure I have the right to do so.

My reference to Einstein was to describe how I think weather people try to be experts by confusing outsiders with their language. They love impenetrable acronyms. They actually use acronyms which contain the first letter of another acronym. Einstein felt that he could explain his knowledge to a seven year old. I think that is an admirable attitude.

I do not predict that the storm will behave in any certain way. I am not attached to any certain outcome, unless the fact that I would prefer a fizzle counts. I can't be "right" since I have no idea what will happen. I merely wanted others to be aware of the possibility of a significant storm. I don't believe two days will tell. We need almost a week to find out. These storms, as you must have experienced, defy our understanding even when they are right on our doorstep.

I'm fine with using weather underground. My neighbor was a huge fan and contributer. My point was that they get their info from NWS, a paid for by our taxes service. Being a government entity, NWS is forced to primarily use the GFS, which is "our" computer model. They know that the euro is more accurate, it is common knowledge and not my judgement.

I'm not sure how I can be any more clear.

From my point of view it seems that you are shooting the messenger. I don't believe that insulting me or anyone serves the sailing community as well as discussion about the issues. I feel certain that I've seen good posts from you, so I'll just consider this a misunderstanding or a bad night for you, hey, I have them also. No problem.
 
#19 ·
When looking at Weather undergrowund I observed the following discussion

NOAA/NWS Models
The National Weather Service produces some of the models used by the National Huricane Center. These models are run by NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO). Output images from the NOAA/NWS models can be found through NCEP's Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) interface. Raw data from the models can be found through the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS).

Other model background information

If you look close at the computer models it contains predictions from not just GFS, but also GFLD, NAMS, UKMET, HWRI and BAMM.

While I am glad you have found accuweather to be a good site for you, I have found in my ignorance using weather underground to be helpful for my pedestrian abilities.
 
#21 · (Edited)
Skygazer,
You Eurotrash weather model obsessing fear monger your! How dare you use those cheese eating surrender monkey's weather model rather than our good ol' made in the USA GFA, or whatever it is called.
Actually, I completely agree with you. This COULD BE a very poorly timed severe weather event for the east coast of the US. I will say that the NWS will revise their forecasts if the European model proves to be more accurate. It is true that most free and paid weather outlets in the US only use the NWS data and weather model prediction services.
Have you tried looking at, say, the Bermuda weather service? They are quite concerned about the same tropical weather and take it quite seriously. I'm not sure what forecast modeling software they are using but I'd bet it ain't ol' GFSA or whatever its called.
I was planning on hauling our boat anyway but if the worst case does develop then all bets might be off.

Who posted the large graphic that messed with the page width? Eh?
 
#22 · (Edited)
Skygazer,
You Eurotrash weather model obsessing fear monger your! How dare you use those cheese eating surrender monkey's weather model rather than our good ol' made in the USA GFA, or whatever it is called.....
Thank you, I was beginning to feel that I could only open mouth and insert foot, and no one could understand what I was saying. I used to imagine I was fairly articulate.

Just to clarify, I do use NWS forecasts, I think it's a great service. I used to also use weather underground, my neigbor was so enthusiastic it was catching. He also ran a weather site for them, so the info for my area came from just across the street. He had a couple of computers that continuously showed weather underground when I was at his home. He kept his boat next to mine on the lake. He recently passed away from cancer and I stopped using W.U., maybe too many memories.

While most models have names like ECMWF or some other mouthful, my favorite model is the "Brazilian Model". Very accurate, and I can't help thinking of red wine and Samba on guitar when I think of her - whoops, I mean that model. Unfortunately, I can't find the English speaking Brazilian model, though I've seen graphics from it.

That graphic messed with my page width also, but the warmth it shows in the north Atlantic has a lot to do with the craziness of Sandy. Hope we change pages pretty quick so I don't have to scroll or shrink the page.

Edit: Oh, we are on a new page, nice and narrow!
 
#24 ·
Looking at the 564 mb upper level lows, it seems that the track of this storm depends on the movement and location of those two cold "barriers. It's not surprising that the computer models disagree. In any case, the boundary between Sandy and that cold northern air may create some interesting weather and is certainly no place to be in a boat. Listening to a couple of local Vermont meteorologists this morning, they have more confidence in the European model and are becoming concerned. This time of the year, with the trees asleep and little absorption from the forests, flooding is a major concern. Vermont is still recovering from last year's flooding which did a tremendous amount of damage.
 
#27 ·
from what i have been watching, int merely the named storm called sandy that is in need of being watched--is also the impending land based frontal system approaching and expected to join the sandy storm to provide a great huge fun event---however, as humans, and as predictions arent always spot on, we will see what happens when it happens, or a couple of days prior. is still too far off to accurately KNOW what is gonna be. we remember jova , on this coast--nothing is for sure. be ready and see what ye get.
hunker down as if the world is coming to an end, and be safe!



MEOUW!!! FFFFFFFFT FFFFFFFFFFFFT...
 
#28 ·
Here's where the old saw "hope for the best and prepare for the worst" plays out in cruising.

I'm currently advising and weather-routing some southbound friends on their first cruise. My goal is for them to have a boring trip. (Well, boring weather-wise.) They were in Norfolk on Sunday. I told them about the possibility of this storm and advised them continue toward Oriental (which they could reach by around Friday) but not to continue out toward Beaufort and the coast until we knew which way the storm would play out. If it continued to build, they needed to stay in shelter; if it fizzled they could head out. I needed to know the worst-case possibility a week away because when you're cruising, in some cases the decision you make on Wednesday locks in where you are going to be on Saturday!

I'm a grownup and prefer to know all the possibilities, including the low-probability but high-threat ones, to make a grownup decision, rather than have a nanny state coddle me with "nothing to worry your pretty little head about" crap. If you don't know there's a chance of a storm coming, you can't be watching for further development and making sure you have a Plan B. That's not alarmist, its just contingency planning.
 
#34 ·
Here's where the old saw "hope for the best and prepare for the worst" plays out in cruising.....

.....I'm a grownup and prefer to know all the possibilities, including the low-probability but high-threat ones, to make a grownup decision, rather than have a nanny state coddle me with "nothing to worry your pretty little head about" crap. If you don't know there's a chance of a storm coming, you can't be watching for further development and making sure you have a Plan B. That's not alarmist, its just contingency planning.
WingNwing, if you had broken your post up into two pieces, I could have "Liked" it twice!!

My thoughts exactly. Thanks for making my thoughts so clear, that even I could understand them.

Nicely written, you do very well with your "pretty little head"!
 
#30 · (Edited)
Agreed about prepare for the worst. Keep you eye on the developing and changing predictions. Weather predictions are not an exact science, thats why its so important to get as many and a much information as possible. NOt just follow one weather servive or prediction as gospell.

Wingnwing, your advice is the same as I gave my friends who are headed south and are actually further along than Beufort. I told them to stay inland. These storms can turn on a dime. It has northing to do with last years storm...or it occuring in November...it has everything to do with the parameters of this particular storm Sandy. And yes, looking 5 days ahead is the prudent thing to do as putting yourself in a position with no options is not a good one. They are all different and follow no pattern of predicability based on last years pattern. Watch what the Navy does with its ships in Norfolk, thats a good indicator for the Chesapeake and North Carolina

There is measured way to go about this without becomming "chicken little" or predicting the return of the "perfect storm" of a few years back.. Instead of being an alarmist with hysterionics like the local weather forecasters, accuweather or the weather channel does everytime there is a low pressure system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Carribbean or Sargasso Sea. Stay alert, or a you said the opposite side being a "nanny saying everything will be just fine"...follow the storm and make your decisions accordingly. Thats just common sense.

Agreeing with statements about cautiousness is really reaffirming the obvious. No prudent sailor or anyone on here including me has stated otherwise. I think the difference of opinion centered on which service to use for predictions. I say use them ALL and dont make fun or discount any of them

We were on our trip at the end of the LI Sound this year when a hurricane developed in the gulf and decided not to go further north so we would have a 3 day window to return to the Chessapeake in time.

Jim Cantorre hasnt headed for the mid-Atlantic region yet so I am not worried about impending doom:laugher:laugher:laugher. If the storms heads this way I will take proactive action.

My eyes are wide open as I have a boat in the water and a vested interest..

Dave
 
#37 ·
Agreed about prepare for the worst. Keep you eye on the developing and changing predictions. Weather predictions are not an exact science, thats why its so important to get as many and a much information as possible. NOT just follow one weather service or prediction as gospell.

...follow the storm and make your decisions accordingly. Thats just common sense.
Agreed. I don't think there's much point in arguing weather models. Different models seem to work better for different storms. As we get further into the week the models will begin to converge -- that's when you can start making plans.

For right now the plan is to sail down Barnegat Bay on Saturday morning with a couple of good for nothing reprobate sailors. Drop the hook in Myers Hole for lunch. Throw some chicken and little necks on the grill and wash it all down with some Sam Adams.


If it looks like the storm is going to veer toward shore we'll spend Saturday morning stripping sails and canvas off four boats and getting hauled.

Really, there isn't much more that we can do when you get right down to it. :rolleyes:
 
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#33 ·
Just for perspective, let's revisit the official NWS bulletin for Katrina. When I read this back in the day my blood ran cold:

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


The only thing left out of that is "Cats and dogs living together!!!"

And you know, it was dead on correct.
 
#38 ·
I am with you Jim...sounds like fun. Which Meyers Hole (1 has mooring balls...the other is in front of High Bar Yacht Club) we usually andchor in the first when when transiting to the LI Sound and comming in the inlet.

Our plans are to sail to Cacaway Island and watch the annual geese landing carnival. If the storms looks like it is comming I will do like you are. Strip the boat and prepare it for heavy weather. We are in a hurricane hole. Oour biggest worry is surge and flooding.

We will access as the weekend draws near and all the weather forecasters start " converging" as you said/

Dave
 
#39 ·
Dave,
We'll go into the first by the mooring balls. I love this time of year, warm but not hot and a lot less boat traffic on the bay.

"annual geese landing carnival"

Is there such a thing or is it a euphemism for rafting up and drinking :laugher

We have the same concern with a storm coming in. We're also in a hurricane hole on Forked River. But the marina parking lot is only about four feet above the normal water level so a storm surge is always a worry if we take a direct hit.

Too early to worry about that though...
 
#40 · (Edited)
#42 ·
Our last best hope for a miss has caved in, GFS has flipped and has 95% of the ensembles hitting the east coast. Here is a screen shot from Weather Underground of this mornings (Thurs. 10/25/12) model runs:



Am I happy? Absolutely not, I wanted a fizzle.

Domestic animals and wildlife often give signs of what the weather is going to do. Does the wildlife out here in the country indicate coming bad weather? Well, you need to know that I'm too far northwest for nut trees. Not so many gray squirrels live here, they are more along the coast. This is a hunting community, not a city park, squirrels here are wild and wary.

This morning is beautiful and sunny, calm before the storm. I went out and gray squirrels came pouring out of my sailboats and running away in all directions. I counted at least seven (7), by far the most I've ever seen together in my life in the wild. IIRC it was in '07/'08 that I last saw gray squirrels breaking into buildings, we had the biggest winter here in a decade.

I've never had squirrels go into my boats before, never! Didn't even think they could get up there. Not sure if this means a big winter or just a big storm, but the behavior is so extreme I have to guess both.

I'm not happy that lots of models are showing a hit on Maine. Even if it's a miss, I'm sure we'll get a secondary nor'easter out of it. My least favorite storm type, when anything can happen and forecasts mean nothing.

I hope this is not setting up a pattern of extreme nor'easters for Maine for the winter.

Ha Ha! LOL, I just realized the squirrels are getting into boats! Boats! Do they expect flooding! I'm at the top of a high hill, so they left the trees, climbed the steepest hill, and got inside of boats. The opposite of rats leaving a sinking ship. Weird, and a bit scary.
 
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