I've been hanging out on the Weather Underground and NWS web sites. They show a number of tracks, but still with a great deal of uncertainty. All the tracks are plus or minus 200+ miles. Assuming that the predictions are good enough that the actual track is within 50 miles of the predicted track, both my boat in Pasadena, MD and my house in Chantilly, VA will be hit pretty hard. I am expecting Sandy to bring 60 kt winds, 1 - 1.5 ft of storm surge in the Chesapeake (wherever it lands), and 8" - 12" of rain in the general area. But what really has me worried is the flooding that will occur afterwards.
The NAM and GFS tracks show Sandy passing just to the north of Baltimore. The GFDL model shows the eye passing just south of Washington D.C. Given the uncertainties still involved, these models more or less agree. What is astounding is the way this thing is going to spread out as it meets and merges with the cold front. We are all going to see nasty weather from Northern North Carolina to north of Long Island in New York.
Happily, this morning Tranquility Base was hauled. It now sits 20 feet above sea level on 6 jack stands. I removed the sails and wrapped the main halyard around the mast to prevent chafe from slapping. The jib
halyard is attached to my aluminum toe rail, out and away from the mast, for the same reason. I removed the bimini and laid the frame down on the cockpit. TB is as ready as I can make her. I am pretty confident she will be just fine, so long as an embedded tornado doesn't get her. I wish I could say the same for my house! This house is 21 years old, and I watched its construction. Houses in the D.C. area are not well built unless you pay double and use a custom builder (I didn't). It has been through this kind of wind in summer thunderstorms, but those are over in 15 minutes. It has never faced that kind of stress for 2 days straight. I lost shingles to the thunderstorms. I'm wondering what additional damage an extended pounding will do.