An Informed Opinion about the Bounty - Page 8 - SailNet Community
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post #71 of 141 Old 12-04-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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Originally Posted by MarkofSeaLife View Post
I was watching this storm and the NOAA predictions and I thought there were WILDLY stupido to say the hurricane would come up over Jamacia, over Cuba, due north over Bahamas then west a bit, then North again, then due east for a moment then curve slowly to hit New York.
I thought they couldn't possible have a prediction five days out like that. BUT THEY WERE RIGHT! NOAA was absolutely SPOT ON from days and days before. No one has given them credit for how accurate they were, remember Jersey Shores invoked a state of emergency three days before it hit.
Actually, NOAA was a bit late coming to that party... The Euro models were the first to forecast that final turn to the left, and it was a few days before most American models eventually came into agreement with that forecast..

U.S. forecast's late arrival stirs weather tempest

Agreed, however, the forecasting of this storm was incredibly accurate in the end... Still, looking at this ensemble of models the day before leaving New London, Walbridge would have to be delusional to think they could "skirt" that storm...

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post #72 of 141 Old 12-04-2012
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Smile Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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That's a great graphic!


It does show his dilemma. But he was still wrong because he turned into the Gulf Stream. Wind against waves.

you Americans you a phrase no one else uses (I love the phrase)... "Double guess". He has tried to double guess it and failed. His chess game, as you put it, was lost a long time before. Like many, professionals or amateurs, of the old school they don't believe the modern technology. If he believed NOAA they would have been right. Well, no, not really, because they NEVER made any easting!
The phrase is "Second Guess" damn-it! Get it right!

What I recall about the forecasting was that the first forecasts had nearly all tracks headed east but that all of the mainstream the news reports paid unusually heavy attention to the few outliers which showed the western curve. Over the next few days the majority of the other models came to agree with that western course.

Mark - we were outbound to Florida from the hub of Abaco in June when we heard you squawking on 68 - just arriving from Exumas. Wished we'd have had a chance to stick around and meet and hear some of your stories.

Best
-M
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post #73 of 141 Old 12-04-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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The phrase is "Second Guess" damn-it! Get it right!


Mark - we were outbound to Florida from the hub of Abaco in June when we heard you squawking on 68 - just arriving from Exumas. Wished we'd have had a chance to stick around and meet and hear some of your stories.

Best
-M
I wish you Americans would speak English! Ok Second Guess!
And if NOAA dis change after Wednesday why the friggin hell did he try to go EAST of it when it was heading east? That puts him more in potty.

Blownstink we will meet up next time

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post #74 of 141 Old 12-04-2012 Thread Starter
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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All that being said, Roger, doesn't change the fact that there are other, better, worthier ways to express grief and an informed opinion .....
Utterly beside any point I was trying to make. I merely observe that the letter was written by one of about a dozen people in this country best able to understand Wallbridge's position and options when he was sitting in New London and later at sea. He is one of the few people who have sailed an historic replica wooden ship around extensively on deep water routes. If the letter is all you say it is, the fact that someone like Jan was moved to that extent is significant. I take no issue with anyone not liking the letter. That's an entirely separate question that I'm not addressing.

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I referred to you on the first page of this thread as a retired NA because that is how you refer to yourself
I know how I refer to myself. It was the context of your usage which I may not have properly interpreted.

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But, you and jan and any of the other credentialed experts on ship handling and construction who have offered input on this tragedy are no more psychic than I or anyone here....none of us can say with certainty what the captain's intentions, thoughts, or plans were..
You are attributing intentions to myself and others here without any basis. I don't expect any certainty here about that and I don't think anyone else does. In fact, the essence of this story is the utter mystification and sense of What the hell was he thinking? that this event raises.
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post #75 of 141 Old 12-04-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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Agreed, however, the forecasting of this storm was incredibly accurate in the end... Still, looking at this ensemble of models the day before leaving New London, Walbridge would have to be delusional to think they could "skirt" that storm...


I can see his idea of ducking inside and getting a "ride" south. Its insane, but I can see it. There was a while where they were telling Claudene that " Bounty loves hurricanes" so they were that deluded. If the hurricane had gone farther east like most do, he would be in St. Pete telling kids that right now.
I wouldn't be so sure about that...

Even if the storm had followed any of those projected tracks, it still would have passed within 3-4 degrees of latitude below Hatteras to the SE... With a storm that vast, even if it had taken a more easterly track, I believe the sea conditions in the area where BOUNTY met her demise wouldn't have been all that much different, than from that which they eventually experienced...

Remember, the conditions - especially the windspeed - were not all that extreme when things began to go pear-shaped... I think it was primarily the sea conditions that did her in, and they still would have been pretty horrendous in the Stream, 80 miles SE of Hatteras, even in the event of such a monstrous storm having tracked much further offshore...

One would have thought a captain who claimed to have once experienced 70-foot swells from a hurricane several hundred miles distant, might have had a greater appreciation for that fact...
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post #76 of 141 Old 12-04-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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In fact, the essence of this story is the utter mystification and sense of What the hell was he thinking? that this event raises.
On that we can agree.

It's 5 o'clock somewhere:


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post #77 of 141 Old 12-05-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

I lost a longtime friend of mine years ago in a snowmobile accident. It was completely preventable and completely the fault of my dear friend. After her wake, at her house where her widowed husband and motherless children now lived, I told her husband I was really mad at her. He looked at me surprised. I had lost a best friend. He had lost a wife. And I wasn't mourning and reminiscing about all the good times we had enjoyed since grade school. I was talking about how selfish it had been of her to see just how fast that new snowmobile she just bought would go. Her widowed husband looked at me, then understood. His eyes said, yes, it was foolish and very selfish.

When I read Miles' letter criticizing Robin Walbridge, I thought, "That's already been said", "That's all hindsight", and many other things already said here. But at the end I realized Miles and Walbridge enjoyed a friendship and maybe Miles was just getting his anger out for his friend's foolish and selfish actions.

Whatever comes of this tragedy, I just hope that it leads to a reduction in senseless deaths and an increase of placing common sense and safety before profit, ego or any of those other things that compel people to take unnecessary risks that puts lives on the line.
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

Good perspective, Julie. However, I also think there is a huge distance between risking one's own life and that of others, particularly when others that look to you for guidance on the risk.

I've made a choice to get in everything from a carnival ride to a fighter jet, but I partially relied on the risk assessment of others before doing so.
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post #79 of 141 Old 12-05-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

Oh geez, we are still talking about Bounty even there is no new finding from the accident. Are you folks still doing sailing any more? If you don't sail and have a lot of time in your hand, go to do some volunteering work. It is good for your soul and those less than you.

If you think Wallberg made a horrible mistake, learn from it. If you think he did a great job sailing Bounty during Sandy, go to sail like him. It is your decision, I dont think anyone care. Why the hell we need to force our ideas into others head.

Make no sense, especially we are sailors we can bend and adapt better the others.


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I am old school. Integrity is to do the right thing even when no one is watching.
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post #80 of 141 Old 12-05-2012
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Re: An Informed Opinion about the Bounty

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Make no sense, especially we are sailors we can bend and adapt better the others.
I disagree with you.... There are many cruisers out there who are extremely inflexible. It is a difficulty that can become a safety problem.
For example route planning is only a plan... Whereas many will think that lays it all in concrete.


As to the rest of your post, we are still finding out more. So I think the time put in is still valuable. But we are not forcing you to read it, so why waste your time writing about wasting your time?
We know we a not wasting ours!

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