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post #31 of 31 Old 12-20-2012
Aspiring to be a Mexican
 
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Re: Overloaded

Since we've been cruising I've learned that weather forecasts, not even from one source but all my sources combined, are right about 1/2 of each day, 1/2 of the time. You have to be prepared. If the forecast says 10-15 it will be between dead calm and 25 knots with gusts to 30. The swell size is usually close, the direction, not so much.
We've left when the forecast was 10-20 on the beam and we had to motor all day with all the sails flapping. We left to go around Point Conception and the forecast was 10-15 with a 6-8 foot swell. The reality was 30-35 with gusts to 45 and a 16-18 foot swell.
I knew that NOAA was wrong as soon as I looked at the sky at dawn.


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