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  #211  
Old 05-16-2013
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Although a TRC metric would be useful believe it would be some time before a meaningful ( low estimate of the error) number could be generated due to the low N. Also believe next subsequent race will involve boats that will contain major technologic advance. Therefore any number generated would not apply to the boats currently racing. However, very interested in the concept of the race being a totally human endeavor with no genset or powered aids. Believe this would limit speeds and increase safety and is a very intelligent idea. Also, restoring more humanity into the equation would enhance the race.
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  #212  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnewaska View Post
Quote:

Originally Posted by TropicCat
That would be NASCAR where back in the day they installed restrictor plates to keep the cars under 200MPH. Now they limit a bunch of parameters to keep the speeds down...
Good example. So, why can't AC do something to limit its risk?
Not necessarily, as is so often the case, the solutions are not quite so simple... It's not very hard to make a compelling case that restrictor plates on the superspeedways in NASCAR have actually made the racing MORE dangerous, not less... It creates the sort of flat-out pack racing that virtually guarantees "The Big One" happening at some point - usually in the final laps - at tracks like Daytona and Talladega...

Charlie Doane has a pretty interesting take on the state of the AC, written shortly before last week's tragedy... He makes the very good point that the best chance the AC has to penetrate the consciousness, and engage the interest, of the non-sailing public, is to create the sort of story line that involves the personalities of those involved... After all, the most memorable AC meetings in history have always featured characters that were somewhat larger than life - Sir Thomas Lipton and Charlie Barr, The Mouth from the South Ted Turner, and of course the closest thing the AC has ever seen to the Average Everyman, Dennis Conner... Unfortunately, a guy like Larry Ellison is a pretty tough sell, not being a particularly appealing character to many outside of the yachting world... As a result, it seems we've now moved on towards an attempt to create the sort of spectacle that rivals the X-Games, or an event many have likened to NASCAR on Water...

What such comparisons overlook, however, is the real reason for the success of NASCAR... More than the spectacle itself, the genius of the marketing of NASCAR is the promotion of the Drivers as PERSONALITIES, and the encouragement of Rivalries between them... If there was one single moment that put NASCAR on the map of general public awareness, it was the fistfight between Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough after their last-lap crash at Daytona in 1979... It was the first time the 500 had ever been broadcast live, and much of the nation was stuck indoors that day due to a major blizzard, millions were probably watching their first NASCAR race ever, and came to realize "Hey, these good ol' boys mean BUSINESS..."


The marketing of personalities like Dale Earnhardt, and the perpetration of Soap Opera storylines and rivalries - that is the real genius of NASCAR, not to mention the primary reason why they have been able to attract the interest of so many women to the sport... Selling the personalities of people like Larry Ellison or James Spithill to the American public? Damn, that's gonna be a tough sell, indeed - far easier to go with an X-Games type spectacle, instead...

Anyway, I thought Doane's was an interesting take...

AMERICA'S CUP CONUNDRUM: Need We Worship Larry Ellison?
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  #213  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

First let me say I understand thoroughly OSHA and TRC rates

Quote:
It would be pretty straightforward to calculate a TRC and fatality rate for a common class of monohull racing, and then do the same for the AC72s so far, and compare the rates. Then you get a much better picture of how safe/unsafe the AC72s are relative to other boats
.


Comparing AC72 with a small survey, which will skew, the rate to a well established base like mono hull racing. That statement is unrealistic at the present time. That is not the only statistic IMHO that is relevant here. This one seems somewhat cruel, because I value every individual life, but here goes.

I don't really care what the extrapolated TRC rate is for Americas Cup racers is because the TOTAL number of deaths will never be very high. Why...because there are very few participants and likely there will always remain like that. You want to take on a real cause....and make a real difference where it counts, take on something which will make a real difference than these extreme sport cutting edge test pilots...take on ParachIt would be pretty straightforward to calculate a TRC and fatality rate for a common class of monohull racing, and then do the same for the AC72s so far, and compare the rates. Then you get a much better picture of how safe/unsafe the AC72s are relative to other boats.
uters or better yet take on bike riders safety

I think is amusing that you want to apply OSHA rules and regs and TRC rates to this. Its applying a metric in one area which doesn't make sense in another. Oh you can relate it somehow as it will determine risk assessment rate, but who cares. We already have established this extreme racing is beyond the normal means of workplace safety inherently and nothing....nothing short of not doing it will change that. Lets do it with marathoners, mountain climbers, bike racers, parachuters, base jumping, skateboarding, driving a car, small aircraft flying, power boat racing etc.

Understand and do go misquoting or extrapolating I don't care about safety. I do. Make it as safe as possible without destroying the purpose of it. I believe in personal choice. If I wish to go fast and it wont harm anyone else but me....don't tell me I cant do it. I am an adult. I know the risks. I am responsible for my choices. I don't need you to protect me from myself. These guys have a choice. If someone with two kids and a wife chooses to do this I am sure they talked and thought about the consequences thoroughly. It is tragic as any life lost is tragic.


QUOTE=TakeFive;1031006]I am surprised that you are willing to make a statement like that without a shred of statistical support.

The first thing you do in assessing risk and safety is to normalize the number of accidents and injuries on exposure hours. OSHA specifies a total recordable case rate, which is the number of injuries per 200,000 man hours. It is a very good metric, because 2000 hours is a typical number of hours worked by a full time employee in a year. So the TRC rate gives, on average, how many injuries would be suffered in a year by a workforce of 100. It's a very nice way to put it. In addition to TRC for injuries, you can do the same calculation for near misses, first aid cases, and fatalities, and stack them to develop a safety pyramid with near misses on the bottom and fatalities on the top. Typical benchmark pyramids exist that can predict how many fatalaties you might have in the future based on your history of less severe injuries. Unfortunately, AC72 has already started to fill in the top of the pyramid.

It would be pretty straightforward to calculate a TRC and fatality rate for a common class of monohull racing, and then do the same for the AC72s so far, and compare the rates. Then you get a much better picture of how safe/unsafe the AC72s are relative to other boats.

It would be a lot better than simply saying "only two accidents and an unfortunate dead." I suspect that a calculated TRC would show these boats to be much more dangerous than any predecessors.[/QUOTE]
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  #214  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
I am surprised that you are willing to make a statement like that without a shred of statistical support.

....

Not a shred of statistical support? The AC45 multihulls have been sailing and racing for two years now and done an incredible number of hours without any serious causality. Multihulls almost the size and speed of the AC72 had raced for years without any serious causality. The 6 SC72 on the water have made a good number of sailing hours with only one bad causality that eventually can be attributed to bad luck and the use of an auto inflating PDF.

I would say that without being a closed case facts seem to indicate that this series is not excessively dangerous as some want to make belief based in a random accident that resulted in one death. Death in accidents happens in all speed racing, are an unavoidable consequence of that type of racing. Sure, everything should be done to lessen the risk, if that is an excessive one. It remains to be seen if it is the case. Evidence till know does not point to an excessive risk.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
It would be pretty straightforward to calculate a TRC and fatality rate for a common class of monohull racing, and then do the same for the AC72s so far, and compare the rates. Then you get a much better picture of how safe/unsafe the AC72s are relative to other boats.

It would be a lot better than simply saying "only two accidents and an unfortunate dead." I suspect that a calculated TRC would show these boats to be much more dangerous than any predecessors.
Probably it is only you that sees the necessity of proving that the old mono-hull AC racing was less dangerous than the present one.

Get slower and even older designed sailboats than the old AC monohulls and the danger will be even smaller. Who wants that?

The Danger in what regards racing has much to do with speed. It makes no sense to have the F1 of the seas cup raced on old and slow sailboats. They should be the top in what regards speed and design and they finally are just that. Of course they are more dangerous to drive, so it is a F1 regarding a Tourism race car....so what?

Regards

Paulo
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  #215  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

I know there is an irreconcilable difference of opinion on this, but I maintain that the crew have little to no actual choice. That discussion with their wives would go like this, hypothetically:

"I was offered a spot on an AC team."

"Isn't that incredibly dangerous and these new boats might really crash into each other and hurt people? I'm worried about the kids."

"Yes, but if I say no, I will never be offered another opportunity like it. I have to say yes, or hurt my career."

JMO.
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  #216  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnewaska View Post
The discussion is about a boat that has sailed for only a few months, not the risk associated with every race since the beginning.
It is the same type of boat. The AC45 can sail over 30K, the AC72 over 40K, not a very big difference besides the AC72 is a more stable boat and less prone to capsize or pitch pole. I don't see why the discussion of the many accidents suffered by the AC 45 and their consequences should not be pertinent for the discussion. The type of accidents that can happen on both boats are very similar.

Regards

Paulo
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
Not necessarily, as is so often the case, the solutions are not quite so simple... It's not very hard to make a compelling case that restrictor plates on the superspeedways in NASCAR have actually made the racing MORE dangerous, not less... It creates the sort of flat-out pack racing that virtually guarantees "The Big One" happening at some point - usually in the final laps - at tracks like Daytona and Talladega...

Charlie Doane has a pretty interesting take on the state of the AC, written shortly before last week's tragedy... He makes the very good point that the best chance the AC has to penetrate the consciousness, and engage the interest, of the non-sailing public, is to create the sort of story line that involves the personalities of those involved... After all, the most memorable AC meetings in history have always featured characters that were somewhat larger than life - Sir Thomas Lipton and Charlie Barr, The Mouth from the South Ted Turner, and of course the closest thing the AC has ever seen to the Average Everyman, Dennis Conner... Unfortunately, a guy like Larry Ellison is a pretty tough sell, not being a particularly appealing character to many outside of the yachting world... As a result, it seems we've now moved on towards an attempt to create the sort of spectacle that rivals the X-Games, or an event many have likened to NASCAR on Water...

What such comparisons overlook, however, is the real reason for the success of NASCAR... More than the spectacle itself, the genius of the marketing of NASCAR is the promotion of the Drivers as PERSONALITIES, and the encouragement of Rivalries between them... If there was one single moment that put NASCAR on the map of general public awareness, it was the fistfight between Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough after their last-lap crash at Daytona in 1979... It was the first time the 500 had ever been broadcast live, and much of the nation was stuck indoors that day due to a major blizzard, millions were probably watching their first NASCAR race ever, and came to realize "Hey, these good ol' boys mean BUSINESS..."

Daytona 1979: Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough fight! - YouTube

The marketing of personalities like Dale Earnhardt, and the perpetration of Soap Opera storylines and rivalries - that is the real genius of NASCAR, not to mention the primary reason why they have been able to attract the interest of so many women to the sport... Selling the personalities of people like Larry Ellison or James Spithill to the American public? Damn, that's gonna be a tough sell, indeed - far easier to go with an X-Games type spectacle, instead...

Anyway, I thought Doane's was an interesting take...

AMERICA'S CUP CONUNDRUM: Need We Worship Larry Ellison?

The problem with marketing them as personalities like NASCAR and other sports have- is that the tradition is of an international competition- country vs cointry

Also- these guys are all transient, the turnover rate is way higher.

Marketing the boats as personalities. Like is done with monster tucks ie Bigfoot and gravedigger- that is the way of the televised sailing future. Although- 5 or so years in- all big racing will be televised and marketed this way- and then the skippers can have dramaticized or even real rivalries similar to wrestling.
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  #218  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
....
What such comparisons overlook, however, is the real reason for the success of NASCAR... More than the spectacle itself, the genius of the marketing of NASCAR is the promotion of the Drivers as PERSONALITIES, and the encouragement of Rivalries between them... If there was one single moment that put NASCAR on the map of general public awareness, it was the fistfight between Donnie Allison and Cale Yarborough after their last-lap crash at Daytona in 1979... It was the first time the 500 had ever been broadcast live, and much of the nation was stuck indoors that day due to a major blizzard, millions were probably watching their first NASCAR race ever, and came to realize "Hey, these good ol' boys mean BUSINESS..."

...

The marketing of personalities like Dale Earnhardt, and the perpetration of Soap Opera storylines and rivalries - that is the real genius of NASCAR, not to mention the primary reason why they have been able to attract the interest of so many women to the sport... Selling the personalities of people like Larry Ellison or James Spithill to the American public? Damn, that's gonna be a tough sell, indeed - far easier to go with an X-Games type spectacle, instead...

...
I don't understand why the Nascar comparison. Nascar as a form of racing is looked at a particular American thing by the World's top racing community. There are not a top pilot that wants to race in the Nascar series except if a huge amount of money is offered to him and even so many woold refuse becaise that would mean the end of his carrier as a top pilot. Regarding racing Nascar is not top racing, not top technology, not top pilots and all the world except US won't give a rat's ass about it.

You guys act like the America's cup was an American thing or if the Americans were the ones more interested in it. They are not. There is a much bigger interest in the America's cup (as it is in all sail racing) in Europe, Australia or New Zealand.

If you want to go to car racing analogy stop with that ridiculous analogy with a technically back water very limited (to US) and particular form of auto racing and compare it with the one that has top internationalization, top technology, top pilots and top cars: the F1. The AC 72 are for other sailboats as the F1 is for other cars.



Yes, accidents happen in top racing at top speed, in F1 or on the AC if that one is raced in top boats at top speed. Who wants less?

Regards

Paulo
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnewaska View Post
I know there is an irreconcilable difference of opinion on this, but I maintain that the crew have little to no actual choice. That discussion with their wives would go like this, hypothetically:

"I was offered a spot on an AC team."

"Isn't that incredibly dangerous and these new boats might really crash into each other and hurt people? I'm worried about the kids."

"Yes, but if I say no, I will never be offered another opportunity like it. I have to say yes, or hurt my career."

JMO.
It seems you don't know top sail racers. If the place was offered to any, they would be jumping with joy all over the house

Regards

Paulo
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  #220  
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Re: Another America’s Cup entry destroyed

It could hurt my career to say no. Hahaha. This isn't blowing the boss under his desk- these serfs aren't being served up as cannon fodder to satisfy their lord's bloodlust. One doesn't arrive at the absolute pinnacle of a field based on the argument that "it might hurt the career not too"

The drive to be at the absolute top of ones chosen game - be it doctoring, lawyering, teaching, sailing, dog grooming, acting, bar tending, waitin tables, being a bell boy, cop, gardener, auto mechanic, or roller derby girl has almost nothing to do with the weakass desire to "be successful" and everything to do with being in a constant state of competition- with oneself if there's no one else around.
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