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AC 34 - What If?

22K views 190 replies 32 participants last post by  downeast450 
#1 ·
Anyone watching the AC races today was probably surprised NZ soundly handed Team Oracle two losses in a row. The announcers were surprised. The hushed crowd at the docks seemed shocked. The few articles I've read so far expressed surprise. Everyone seemed to think Oracle was the easy favorite, until the jury handed down the penalties a few days ago, considered by many as being severely harsh and unprecedented.

Team Oracle was forced to enter the America's Cup with a negative two points (-2 race wins) and without their head trimmer. Today's race started NZ 0, USA -2. And today, based on the results, it looked like Oracle never had a chance. They are now down 4 races.

So, what if NZ wins the next 7 races? How would that go down in the annals of the America's Cup, considering the penalties the jury cast down? Then, who really wins?
 
#80 ·
They're not. Their upwind boat handling was hurting them, and they were doing better at that today. The changes they made to the boat seem to have helped them a bit too. Still, I think ETNZ lost the race today more than Oracle won it! Whatever happened to cause the near capsize took them out of the race. I am sure they were just happy to finish in one piece!
 
#82 ·
Still, I think ETNZ lost the race today more than Oracle won it! Whatever happened to cause the near capsize took them out of the race.
During that incident they were yelling "hydro! hydro!" Barker later said the boat tacked but the wing didn't. I think what happened was the wing didn't have enough hydraulic power to tack (change its shape) and they were yelling at the grinders to grind harder to build up the hydraulic pressure so they could tack the wing. Whatever the case, they sure rode the razor's edge long enough!

During the after-race commentary, I thought I heard one of the commentators mention the possibility of ETNZ losing the Cup if their boat had actually capsized and was damaged. Maybe that near capsize was why the race committee cancelled the 2nd race as soon as they did.
 
#83 · (Edited)
Yeah for whatever reason they didn't have enough hydraulic power to pop the wing onto the new tack. Whether it was a mechanical problem or one or more of their grinders wasn't getting it done I don't know. They didn't seem to be scrambling to do repairs between races so perhaps it was a rare and near disastrous crew error.

I think the rules around maximum wind speed and when a race gets called are pretty well set in stone. There is no room for judgement calls on the part of the RC.
 
#85 ·
I find myself wondering if Oracle has looked better because the increased winds keep them up on tacks. In races they have lost, both pontoons were in the water during tacks and they lost a lot of speed. Emirates didn't seem to have that problem.

Spithill made one judgement error that took them out of race two yesterday. I'm no pro but when I saw him drop back rather than challenge Emirates, I thought, "Oh, No!" :eek: The commentators didn't seem to have quite the reaction though.

I'd like to see average wind speeds for each race and compare that to who won. I'm thinking somewhere around 15+ knots is what Oracle needs to stay competitive. The entire crew just seems to work better when the winds are up. And that's the only time they have won so far.
 
#86 ·
Suddenly they're tacking better
I think they have been given the ability to tack better through boat modifications and the ebb tide. As I said previously I don't think the crew difference was great enough for the results we had been seeing.

The racing was great yesterday and I would like to see a very competitive AC but have ETNZ hold on.
 
#87 ·
Honestly, I think most of it comes down to one thing: all-in-all Dean is a better driver than Jimmy. He wins almost every start, he typically keeps Jimmy boxed in on the course, and (near-capsize notwithstanding) when he does make an aggressive move, it typically pays off - where Jimmy is just being too aggressive too late, making mistakes virtually every time.

OR has definitely improved...but not enough to win the string of races they need to win to stay in it. NZ will have to have serious screw-ups to lose this (like the near-capsize). But I just don't see Dean making too many of those.
 
#88 ·
Driving, trimming, tactics, aggressive decisions, boat design, etc. What are we getting for the billions invested? These are the same fundamentals since the first race. They just go faster. Now that I've watch this many races, the speed isn't all that thrilling anymore, nor even all that noticeable from a distance. I keep telling myself how incredible it must be to be sailing at 40 kts, but it doesn't look like it from afar.

I also think that helmets and sunglasses make even the players whose faces I would recognize become indistinguishable.
 
#89 ·
I disagree, I think the speed is incredibly thrilling. The crosses, quick moves, and near misses at 40+ knots are finally making yacht racing exciting. It's really amplifying the little mistakes much more than you'd see in the old mono racing...and making it compelling for a wider audience.

I still think this is the right direction for the AC. If they abandon foiling multis, they're fools.
 
#90 ·
As I watch the sailing world warm up (sort of) to the AC72s, I wonder what the pressure will be for the next AC to do something jaw dropping. Can you really go back to slower boats after this and not lose fans? Is there any place in NZ that has the consistent winds SF Bay does? This might be hard to top.
 
#93 ·
Dalton is on record as saying two things that are both in my view game changers. If they win the cup (and whilst that may appear likely it isn't yet guaranteed) their intention is:

- to make it more affordable and encourage more syndicates to participate. That doesn't mean slower boats - it just means smaller, less expensive ones.

- to make the entries more "national" - don't know whether he means that participants (crew) will be required to hold a passport of the country they're sailing for or if just the syndicate represents a country. That is contradictory to AC protocol in my view because historically the Defender and Challenger were required to represent a legitimate yacht club, not a country. Unkindly I think he means the former because as I have suggested in previous posts, if New Zealanders are forced to sail for New Zealand, the challengers have a considerably smaller pool of talent to draw on and ETNZ will have the best of the best.

Let's see who wins this AC before speculating.

Oh, and no, we (Auckland) don't have those consistent winds but then racing shouldn't be only about heavy-ish weather. It's always been said that real sailors win in light airs. I wouldn't mind seeing these monsters sailing downwind under an acre of Code Zero. I reckon they could triple true wind speed.
 
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#91 ·
I am not sure that one skipper stands out over the other. Starts are probably close to equal, given that since it is not a windward start being marginally over the line first doesn't help, rather it is the first to the circle at mark one gains rounding rights and the leeward boat can have the advantage there. In the last few races that has gone to the boat with port entry.
Secondly covering the trailing boat is standard match racing. When close enough behind for it to count JS has set up split tacks which put ETNZ in a position of having to do two tacks to cover, or at best an extra tack if left.
Where once ETNZ was tacking better OR did better in the last race or two so they may be less ready to get into a tacking duel. That means there is some risk of the opposition picking up a windshift as OR did.
Both are top level skippers, but it doesn't mean that neither will make a mistake which can be costly in a 20 minute race.
It is a spectacle surely and can be exciting, however the venue gives a short narrow circuit with a pretty constant wind reducing the wind variability and tactics and strategy.
There have been other exciting races, albeit slower.
 
#92 ·
I could be completely wrong about this - but my gut hunch is that Larry E doesn't care that much about the actual Cup. He cares more about the ACWS. That's a very tv-friendly style of racing that could work on a continual basis - world-wide - and could generate real revenue. I think that's the value he really sees. Will he spin that out of the AC and try to serialize it into an actual Nascar/F1-like sporting event?

I would if I were him.
 
#101 ·
I like Omatako's idea. 45's with foils. I just can't get over how tall these boats are. They just don't seem to resemble even slightly many of the boats that Joe Budweiser owns at his harbor in, say, Monterey, Ca.

I guess they shouldn't. They're kind of the Le Mans cars of the water. But there should at least be some likeness in size to the most common boats out there, I'd think.

As far as monos vs. cats, to me they are quite different beasts, but I like them both. In al reality, though, noone can expect to go back to monos, I don't think.

And now, to tab on over to the WMRT and see what's up withthat series, if anything.
 
#102 ·
OTUSA will race another day. They looked the best I've seen them so far. On the upwind leg,It looked like Oracle was choosing a lower point of sail to gain a couple knots in speed. This kept them up on their foils more than Emirates and helped them keep their speed up through the tacks. If sailing off the wind a bit was the plan, it worked. But the wind was strong again and that seems to be what Oracle likes best.

OTOH, that 30-second window average :confused: I have no idea why they created a rule where an average wind speed over any 30-second period that exceeds 20K can cause the clock to reset to 15:00 and begin the countdown all over again. Then you have to wait for another 15 minute period to pass hoping the wind speed won't max during any other 30-second period. Couldn't they have set it for a minute or two?

And while they were waiting for that average to stay below the max, the average wind speed, over the entire time they were waiting, was a little over 16K. Why set yourself up for so many cancelled races?
 
#104 ·
AC 34 - What the?

This is really turning out like no one expected. ETNZ is in the lead and looking at an easy win... and then time expires and the race is cancelled. For once the winds didn't show up. But we got to see the code zero!

Next race, OTUSA pulls ahead and takes the win. ET 8, OT 3. And tomorrow NZ tries once again to get that one last win.

Sailing even the sailing world didn't expect. And I'm kinda liking those AC72s now. :eek:
 
#106 ·
Re: AC 34 - What The...?

Yeah, this is kinda frustrating, but fun too. All of the cancelled races, most by too much wind, but today's first race by too little. Or maybe too much dallying for dominance by the competitors.

It's still fun.

Maybe this just shows how much these best-of-the-best have to learn about these Formula One Race machines. And we got to see the CODE ZEROS deployed! :D

The Kiwis (at least on the Emirates boat) came into this race the best prepared and the best racers. The Kiwis and Aussies on Oracle seem to be using the actual Cup Matches as a learning platform. Jeez, I thought they had that down pat by now.

But I'm really having fun. :thewave:
 
#107 ·
Heartbreaking to see the time run out at such a late juncture, odd that the crew seemed to think they had more time.

The 'cross' was incredible, I don't think there's any doubt that Oracle had to 'duck', I can't imagine driving those boats at those closing speeds (even on a light air day... 'Jeez, Gary, the boats are so slow today' - and they're still doing 20 knots :rolleyes:.)

Full credit to Oracle today in the rerun.. they seemed to have higher boat speeds generally, and sailed a smart race. Still say it's a shame there's only a couple of Americans on the "US" boat.
 
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#109 ·
40 minute races, gotta fit into the 1 hour TV time slot and allow enough time for commercials I guess. Yet another dumb AC moment. I really, really, really hope that whoever gets it next time makes a better job of it all. The boats are spectacular and had an opportunity to put on an amazing show for sailing and non-sailing fans alike. From what I can tell, they've mostly managed to alienate both sides at once which is perhaps the most impressive thing about it all.
 
#110 ·
I have to admit, I had lost all interest in the AC then, a slow day at work I youtube the race, now, I don't know what to say other than amazing. the speed, the grace........pretty nice
 
#111 ·
Kiwis must be frustrated, but the rules are far from dumb. Time limits are nothing new and they impact your strategy. You may have to choose between blocking and running for the line before the time expires. The max wind limit is smart on these boats as well. These teams would push themselves to catastrophe without a limit.

That said, has Oracle been penalized yet? I recall twice to NZ. Each boat has had there good and bad races. I hope it goes 8-8 with a final showdown.
 
#112 ·
This has been rather bizarre to watch. I'm no sailor. Just a fairly casual, but interested fan.
I missed todays races due to a soccer match I had committed to going to. But I was completely shocked that Oracle, which has had its back against a wall for what seems like eternity now, pulled out two more wins, and now the regatta is fairly close---but could still end any day with one more NZ win.

The racing has been mostly fun to watch. I do love the foiling. I liked the drama of Oracle falling back so far, but then the race being abandoned. Well, maybe once. After a while, the drama from these strictures get old.

While I love the speed of the cats, I do miss the maneuverability of the monos. Frankly, I don't care whether the next AC is for cats or monos, but I also hope the DOG itself is never amended to require cats (if it even can be. I don't know how amendments work).

I'd sort of like smaller boats back. I liked the size of the AC 45's pretty well, but weren't those OD's? AC should never be OD. Hell, I don't even like it for the VOR.
 
#113 ·
....
I missed todays races due to a soccer match I had committed to going to.
You needn't miss anything.. the races are live on Youtube, but you can review/rewind/rewatch all the races there anytime you like.
 
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