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Go Back   SailNet Community > Out There > Vessels Lost, Missing, or in Danger > Rallies Gone Wrong
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Thread: Rallies Gone Wrong Reply to Thread
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Topic Review (Newest First)
17 Hours Ago 09:59 AM
killarney_sailor
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Can a moderator who knows about such things make the weather map smaller please.

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
We are thinking leave midday Monday. Head nearly due east. Stay above 35. Head nearly due south around long of Porto Rico or V.I. depending. Longer but safer than rhumb line with current info. Be really nasty Saturday and Sunday off mid coast u.s.
Almost the classic I65 route although as was pointed out you are some distance north of the usual route. I had a look at the 96 hour forecasts and it looks like the nasty stuff will be north rather than south. That huge low that is developing looks really nasty (976 mb). I posted the 96 hour surface forecast, which I am sure you know about, but others might want to see. Still a lot of wind in 96 hours (Monday morning) not far from where you are, although the direction is good (pretty much dead downwind for those reading the production boat thread). It would be really nice to follow the fringe of that depression as it tracks eastward (I assume it should turn) and just be the right distance away from it to get the wind you want (20-25 knots). These conditions are not unlike what we had in 2009 although we got away just as such a depression was forming For the most part we were able to get far enough east and south to avoid the worst of it. We had 25 to 40 knots for about a week and then the wind totally quit for the last 400 miles, not even trades all the way to St Thomas.

Not sure why you want to keep north. Is that coming from someone who knows more than me (entirely possible)? It would keep you in the stronger winds longer. I think I would be inclined to aim at Bermuda until you are past the Gulf Stream and then figure out how things are going and what you do next. The advice I was given when we did this trip is not to stop in Bermuda if things are going well. I also imagine the island will not be at its best a few weeks after suffering hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage.

It is all pretty much common sense. If you have gribs just keep an eye on where the northern edge of the trades are and don't get that far south until you have made your easting. When you are sitting at a dock in the Chesapeake you really can't predict conditions a week out.

Have fun.

18 Hours Ago 09:35 AM
killarney_sailor
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

I think that podcast should be mandatory listening for anyone heading offshore for the first time. Some people seem so wedded to the idea that if you have 'good' weather forecasts you will never get yourself into trouble. More than once people on SN have made comments about wanting to cross the Atlantic or go to Hawaii saying that they will wait until they have 'a good weather window' before leaving, as if that will provide anything useful beyond 72 hours (if you are lucky).

The podcast has it exactly right. Pick the right season, be prepared for 35 knots with confidence, and only worry about larger storms. Note also, for those doing major trade wind passages, there are very few if any such larger storms if you are out of the local tropical cyclone season.

The creator of the podcast did not mention the usefulness of a barometer. That is about the only addition I would make.
19 Hours Ago 07:37 AM
JonEisberg
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
We are thinking leave midday Monday. Head nearly due east. Stay above 35. Head nearly due south around long of Porto Rico or V.I. depending. Longer but safer than rhumb line with current info. Be really nasty Saturday and Sunday off mid coast u.s.
So you might actually wind up passing to the north of Bermuda? That's a bit unusual for a departure from the Chesapeake, but seems like it could pay off nicely this year. And, of course keeping Bermuda close at hand in the event of needing to make a stop in the event of a problem is always a nice option...

Your plan is not much different from what I did last time I made the trip, and it worked out quite nicely, we had fast sailing the first 2 days out on the heels of a strong front, and made it into St George's before anyone else. You may even consider leaving a bit earlier as opposed to later, as by sailing due E you won't be running into the Stream for quite awhile... The Stream might not be running as strong as you expect, we could barely tell we were in it the last time, and it turned out to be quite benign... We wound up coming in around the bottom of Bermuda, our approach was made on a rather squally night, and I don't like the idea of being off the reefs to the north in such a situation, I'd much rather have that comforting sight of the powerful beam on top of Gibbs Hill to steer by... :-)

It will be interesting to see if the Caribbean 1500 fleet does their usual thing this year, running down the beach to Hatteras and favoring a straight rhumb line shot... As of now, looks like there might be a lot of fluky weather along that route, light air and a fair amount of headwinds... Everything could change between now and then, of course, but I hope they have plenty of jerry cans... :-) Your plan sounds like a good one right now, to me...

I really enjoyed this podcast from Andy Schell, on his basic approach to dealing with weather offshore... I couldn't agree with him more, our obsession with weather routing and all the rest really does seem to have gotten a bit out of hand these days, and really can have a detrimental effect on the reason we might be going out there, to begin with... Many of the most experienced offshore sailors I've run into take a similar view, simply accepting that you WILL get pasted out there from time to time, and focusing rather on preparing for the worst, and simply sailing the boat to the weather you get... Goes very much in hand with what John Harries was saying in the wake of the SDR last year, that many sailors venturing offshore today are doing so with the naive expectation that with 'Modern Forecasting', and all the fancy tools at our disposal to obtain such information when offshore, there is almost a guarantee that one can always avoid a gale at sea...

I think he articulates this very well, and probably expresses better than I can my thinking about dealing with weather on a passage... Well worth a listen, I think:

Podcast: Offshore Weather Essay ? 59ļ North Ocean Sailing
20 Hours Ago 07:18 AM
Tempest
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Out, With 6 outbound 46's in this years rally, ya'll could start your own mini rally....beautiful vessel! Have a great trip!
1 Day Ago 10:17 PM
smackdaddy
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
We are thinking leave midday Monday. Head nearly due east. Stay above 35. Head nearly due south around long of Porto Rico or V.I. depending. Longer but safer than rhumb line with current info. Be really nasty Saturday and Sunday off mid coast u.s.
Longer is better if it's safer. No doubt.

Be safe dude. We're all pullin' for you!
1 Day Ago 09:50 PM
outbound
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

We are thinking leave midday Monday. Head nearly due east. Stay above 35. Head nearly due south around long of Porto Rico or V.I. depending. Longer but safer than rhumb line with current info. Be really nasty Saturday and Sunday off mid coast u.s.
1 Day Ago 03:53 PM
blowinstink
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by RTB View Post
So, what's the consensus on the start day? Nov 2 (Sunday) isn't looking good.
Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday?

Ralph
I heard it is whatever the herd decides, but the guy I heard it from talks a lotta smack so . . .
1 Day Ago 03:04 PM
RTB
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
Been getting those as well from opc. And getting Chris Parker update and interpretation daily. Thanks gentlemen. A your site is very well done. Going to bed. Get up early drop the bride at the airport then struggle with the linear drive on the ap. Brushes wearing fast. Wasn't that difficult a trip so want to fully check it out.
So, what's the consensus on the start day? Nov 2 (Sunday) isn't looking good.
Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday?

Ralph
1 Day Ago 07:06 AM
TomMaine
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Look for Iain and Fiona on RUFFIAN. This will be their 4th SDR(I think-2 each way). They were selling the rally at the Annapolis boat show.

They're a real anomaly for this thread(they wouldn't understand a single post). They love the SDR and carry jerry jugs on their side decks.
2 Days Ago 11:15 PM
outbound
Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Been getting those as well from opc. And getting Chris Parker update and interpretation daily. Thanks gentlemen. A your site is very well done. Going to bed. Get up early drop the bride at the airport then struggle with the linear drive on the ap. Brushes wearing fast. Wasn't that difficult a trip so want to fully check it out.
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