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Go Back   SailNet Community > General Interest > General Discussion (sailing related) > Climate change?
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Thread: Climate change? Reply to Thread
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Topic Review (Newest First)
10-25-2012 06:58 PM
Classic30
Re: Climate change?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barquito View Post
I think the talking heads on the TV weather should do themselves a favor and try to educate the public about what probabilties mean and the limits of weather forcasting.
Agreed.. but it seems the weather is slightly more unpredictable now. Growing up in North Queensland (trades lattitude) during the 80's, we used to boast of having monthly weather forecasts. If you wanted to plan a picnic out next week you could do so in complete safety, knowing to 99% certainty what the weather would be.

From some of the replies to this thread, I'm beginning to think you guys don't watch weather trends at all and happily leave the dock based on what some rookie in the Met Bureau tells you!..

That is such a stupid, stupid, thing to do.
10-25-2012 12:24 PM
ctl411
Re: Climate change?

I think the changing of leaves is based on time of light not as much on temp. I like the warm fall weather boats still in, get to go sailing tomorrow.
10-25-2012 12:02 PM
JulieMor
Re: Climate change?

I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone in the Chicago area who will say there hasn't been a change of trends in our weather. Mostly that change has been in temperature. It's almost November and it was close to 80 yesterday. Today the high is predicted to be 76. But the leaves are still falling, just as they do every year at this time. Maybe the trees know something we don't.

Of course, there's the loss of the earth's magnetic field that still is weakening today. And that means solar rays will more seriously affect our weather. We know that the poles reverse themselves and that it has happened about 25 times in the last 5 million years. It is believed that flip takes about 1,000 years. The last time that happened was about 740,000 years ago, so we're long overdue. So we may see ever increasing weather changes in our future if we are entering another period of magnetic pole reversal.
10-25-2012 11:56 AM
Barquito
Re: Climate change?

Quote:
As good as the Acu-weather idiots on the news think they are no one can tell you what the weather will be more than a few days out.
OTOH:

Quote:
A four-day forecast today is better than a two-day forecast was back in the mid 1980's. And it gets better ... "Our six-day forecasts are as good as our three-day forecasts used to be,"
I think the talking heads on the TV weather should do themselves a favor and try to educate the public about what probabilties mean and the limits of weather forcasting.
10-24-2012 11:30 PM
Classic30
Re: Climate change?

Hmm...

It's not directly related to what I've noticed lately (maybe), but it does seem that something is going on:


Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround

The chief climate forecaster says it is the biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.

"Come September, all of a sudden, the temperature started to cool down, the trade winds started to become a little bit enhanced, and the cloud patterns and other indicators like that headed away from El Nino," the bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said.

"So this is what we're looking at as climatologists, giving us the heads up about what may happen over the next few months, and indeed what we're seeing now is a backing off from those El Nino thresholds."

Dr Watkins says they are not sure why there has been a cooling down.

"It actually is quite a unique situation if we end up not going into an El Nino event," he said.

"It'll sort of be the biggest turnaround that we've actually seen in our records going back to about 1950, so quite unprecedented."
10-23-2012 02:00 AM
neverknow
Re: Climate change?

Part of the problem with all "normal" weather is "normal" is figured on averages. We don't have more than a 100 years of data to figure what "normal" is.

As good as the Acu-weather idiots on the news think they are no one can tell you what the weather will be more than a few days out.

Maybe after 10,000 years of weather data has been collected humans might be able do better.
10-23-2012 01:00 AM
Yamsailor
Re: Climate change?

According to NOAA, the wind velocities on the East Coast of the UNited States have decreased over time during the past 100 years.
10-22-2012 07:17 PM
Classic30
Re: Climate change?

Ok, Ok.. it was never my intention for this to become another "The Sky Is Warming!.." thread. There's plenty of them over on Off-Topic if people was to go have a look!!

What I was interested in was if anyone has noticed any trends in their local weather of late, if not maybe it's just a regional phenomenon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tdw View Post
Hard to say Hartley. I have noticed that winters seem to be drier but then Australia has been largely in drought for the past decade while last summer, when the drought broke we had a real wet one. The NSW coast tends to have fairly entrenched weather patterns, our summer prevailing is a nor easter (heat inversion and all that, sucking air in over the coast) with sou east changes coming through at irregular intervals as the cold fronts move up from the southern ocean. I'll watch what happens over this coming summer and we'll see if it follows regular patterns.
Thanks, TD - I hadn't considered how much the drought might have affected things. You might be right.

Down here, our winters tend to be stable with summer variable - but it's certinly been a wet year this year. It'd be interesting to see if anything much changes up your way.
10-22-2012 06:33 PM
tdw
Re: Climate change?

Hard to say Hartley. I have noticed that winters seem to be drier but then Australia has been largely in drought for the past decade while last summer, when the drought broke we had a real wet one. The NSW coast tends to have fairly entrenched weather patterns, our summer prevailing is a nor easter (heat inversion and all that, sucking air in over the coast) with sou east changes coming through at irregular intervals as the cold fronts move up from the southern ocean. I'll watch what happens over this coming summer and we'll see if it follows regular patterns.

Now OK so it does seem to me that we are having steamier summers hinting at the tropical weather moving south but I have no proof at my finger tips as to whether that is climate change related or not. My belief is that it is but then I am one who is content to accpet that climate change is happening and that we as a species do have something to do with that.
10-22-2012 02:08 PM
Yamsailor
Re: Climate change?

There are several studies that indicate winds speeds are slowing down or the presence of particulr winds are becoming less frequent. The University of Hawaii published a study demoinstrating a decreasing frequency and velocity of the North East Trade Winds. The University of Iowa has performed a simmilar study for mid-lattitude prevailing westerlies. The University of Bejing found similar occurences in China. Indiana University found world surface wind velocity decreasing due to trees.


At the same time, a University in Australia found winds speeds increasing over the ocean.


I am not sure but I think there is a consensus that overall, global surface winds are descreasing. Clearly this must be related to a decreased pressure differential which in turn affecs the gradient wind. Who knows if it is climate change. Maybe it is--Maybe it isn't.

One thing is true, the earth rate of rotation is slowing just al little every year-this has nothing to do with climate change. As the earths rotation slows over time so goes the change in Coriolis effect and therefore direction of winds.
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