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Halloween Hurricane

29K views 264 replies 42 participants last post by  chef2sail 
#1 ·
The European (ECMWF), generally considered the most accurate of the major computer models, is showing a Katrina type hurricane hitting the mid Atlantic and New England on or about Halloween.

Sure, it may not happen, the GFS says it goes out to sea. But I think we should all be made aware of the possibility so we can plan how to get ready if it should begin to aim at us. I'm concerned that the possibility is being ignored in case it doesn't happen. OK, I hope it doesn't. But I think we should all make our own decision about considering the problem.

I'm having a hard time typing and listening to the debate. So here is a photo of the model as constructed today. Notice the extremely low central pressure, and just to the west, a trough of arctic cold dropping down from Alaska/Siberia/northern Canada. So the coldest arctic cold meeting the warmest tropical air on our coast:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp140/snowstargazer/Weather/HalloweenHurricane.jpg

 
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#77 ·
Two of the computer models now show the storm passing much farther south through The Chesapeake. This storm is leading the weathermen and their computers on a merry chase:) The HWRF track actually has it headed back south. That would be the best outcome for us here in the NE but bad news for the upper Chesapeake.
 
#79 ·
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting) model rather new and unproven, and used mainly for research and model improvements? I'm not sure a long term accuracy chart has even been developed for it yet.

Nevertheless, the many and widely differing paths models are showing indicates that there is no real 'lock" on what Sandy will do. "It's a woman's privilege to change her mind" may apply here. She could kick up her heels and head off someplace surprising. Makes life "interesting".
 
#80 · (Edited)
This is really interesting. I think this mess is more than computer models can predict with any reliability more than about 12 hours out. The NWS model now shows the track actually doing a loop back over the Chesapeake. That would be bad news for the whole bay area.

Description of the models are here:NHC Track and Intensity Models

The chart of reliability and time shows how far off these forecasts can be :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/5yr_ALtkerrdist.gif
 
#81 · (Edited)
Re: Halloween Hurricane
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalebD
"Zeehag, I find it amazing that you are sitting on your boat in Mexico and watching this. Does Bubba the boat cat keep an eye on h'cane Sandy with you? Howz the old Maine ****?"

"Bubba is a Maine **** cat? Cool! I always like hearing Maine mentioned. Next time you watch a weather video, I'll bet the weather girl stands right in front of and blocking Maine. We are generally ignored. We get huge winter storms and no mention."

this looks to be a special winter.
yes, bubba is maine **** mix, and spotted this system when he thought it was going to come to us--we watch everything in summer--when i saw it , it was still moving west, toward mexico--then she pulled a switch to come get you guys--
i am prolly more east coaster than west--grew up there, learned to sail there, but always loved kali, until political...still have a lot of family back east.....maine has super cold and harsh winters...it hurts there in winter.....
 
#82 ·
The tracks are mostly looking to come in around NJ or DE. Those storms typically don't hurt the upper Chessy. Infact besides the deluges of rain the wind is going to tend to push water out of the Chesapeake. People are quite panicked regardless. Guess we'll see.
 
#87 ·
Wow, I'm not kidding that they are still talking about that '38 hurricane around here, and not from this one coming but just because they were so impressed by what it was like and all the trees that blew down and totally blocked the roads.

My father used to talk about spending all his time cutting up the pines that blew down - I think he used an axe and handsaw.
 
#88 ·
Wow.... the projected tracks for this hurricane are literally all over the map;



This thing could come ashore anywhere from Maryland to Maine...
 
#89 ·
Wow skygazer....sounds like you and your wife are living the dream... far away from the maddening crowds.

I see you are from western Maine, where is it you keep your sailboat...what kind is she?

Dave
 
#92 ·
Oh yeah, Canada - that little bit of land north of Maine...

I can't believe we are sitting here watching a hurricane head for land somewhere between Florida and Maine. Usually when they make it this far North, they have only grazed Hatteras on their way to whack Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Hope it doesn't build into the superstorm that some are prognosticating. Good luck neighbours (that's Canadian for neighbors) and stay safe!
 
#99 ·
Looks like I can wait until Sunday to hide Tundra Down in NEH, ME. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day for a sail. Things look nasty through Wednesday. 4 nights on a moored float @ $5.00/night! This storm is going to cost me twenty bucks! Lucky me! I will take the opportunity to change the engine's oil. Here is hoping it ends up being that simple here.

We hauled the Marshall Cat Boat Sunday. It was due anyway. That boat's mooring field is closed after November 1st! Had a beautiful sail before we hauled. Double reefed and a little splashy. What a great sailboat design. Fun!

Good luck to you mid coast sailors.

Down
 
#100 ·
The Erie Canal is closing and dropping the water levels down in preparation of the storm. Just got this from their email alert system:

HURRICANE SANDY 10/26 UPDATE

The Erie Canal from Lock E-8 (Scotia) to Lock E-17 (Little Falls) is projected to close at 7:00 AM on Sat, October, 27, 2012. Water levels in this section will begin to be lowered, at that time, to approximately 3-5 feet below minimum navigation levels. Any vessels remaining in this section which are able to navigate at reduced water levels, will be allowed to transit to safe harbor. Additional closures are possible depending on the storm track.

For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4 and New York State Canals.
03:58:30PM 10/26/12
 
#101 ·
The Erie Canal is closing and dropping the water levels down in preparation of the storm. Just got this from their email alert system:

HURRICANE SANDY 10/26 UPDATE

The Erie Canal from Lock E-8 (Scotia) to Lock E-17 (Little Falls) is projected to close at 7:00 AM on Sat, October, 27, 2012. Water levels in this section will begin to be lowered, at that time, to approximately 3-5 feet below minimum navigation levels. Any vessels remaining in this section which are able to navigate at reduced water levels, will be allowed to transit to safe harbor. Additional closures are possible depending on the storm track.

For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4 and New York State Canals.
03:58:30PM 10/26/12
 
#105 ·
Thanks for that skygazer. I have seen that before but it is timely so I don't have to go search for it.
We are about 3/8" up the Hudson from the bottom of Manhattan, practically in the "Red Zone" for Cat. 1 flooding.
I'm looking for higher ground to park my car when the SHTF. This map helps me a lot.
 
#106 ·
Jim McGee asked me for a SLOSH of NJ. Too big, will mess with the page width. But here is a link to all of the counties (half way down) and a very good - and large - state map of NJ/NYC (State Roads Slosh Map):

New Jersey Office of Emergency Management

I can hardly bear to look at these maps, but they are important. Remember they show only storm surge, heavy rains can swell rives and add to the height of the salt water.

In NYC, 80% of people have never experienced a hurricane of such potential, and may wait too long to realize the danger. Remember that at a certain point subways will be flooded. Make sure to move out before roads are submerged.

The terrible inconvenience of moving out beats the heck out of terrible suffering.

On another site I saw the prediction that NYC police will be in boats, rescuing looters from drowning. For my money thieves can be left to swim holding onto their goods. There is a monkey trap where you bore a hole into wood, and put a nut or anything in the pocket below. The monkey reaches in, grabs the nut, and his paw is too big to withdraw. Greed makes the monkey hold on and be trapped long enough for the hunter.
 
#108 ·
I'm seeing private forecasts that say the wind speeds will be highest on the north side of the storm, due I think to the polar jet.

Also that the storm may ease a bit, but don't become less vigilant, because they expect it to immediately re-intensify.

I'm passing this info on because I've been less than thrilled with the way the whole forecasting thing has been handled.
 
#109 ·
If this storm makes landfall along the NJ coast, the water that piles up in the NY bight and along the LI shore could be devastating. They're evacuating Fire Island already. It would not take a lot to break another inlet or two through the barrier islands. I would not want to be anywhere near Shinnecock Inlet or Dune Road for this.
 
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#111 ·
Private forecast is still showing hit at center of NJ, north of the NHC's forecast.

National Weather Service (NWS) forecast, Marine, cut and paste:

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

.MARINE...
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LATER SUNDAY ON ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL GREATLY INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG WIND...WITH 25-30 FT OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 5 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ON THE SOUND.


HYDROLOGY...
A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN BANDS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY...WITH FLOODING OF FLASHY...FAST RESPONDING STREAMS LIKELY AS WELL. THE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN LEAVES CLOGGING DRAINS...AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LARGER MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MON AND TUE AS A RESULT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MAJOR AND PROLONGED COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING SUNDAY...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY TO RECORD LEVELS...IS LIKELY DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IN POSSIBLE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES CYCLE AS WELL. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF THE COASTAL STORM WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A MAJOR TO LOCALLY RECORD BREAKING COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION...AS WELL AS DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS. HAND IN HAND WITH THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE INCREASINGLY HIGH SURF BATTERING THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAJOR BEACH EROSION...LOCALIZED WASHOVERS...AND DAMAGE TO VULNERABLE SHORELINE STRUCTURES. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS A RESULT.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.

NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073>075-078>081-176>179. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.

NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.

MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
 
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