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Halloween Hurricane

29K views 264 replies 42 participants last post by  chef2sail 
#1 ·
The European (ECMWF), generally considered the most accurate of the major computer models, is showing a Katrina type hurricane hitting the mid Atlantic and New England on or about Halloween.

Sure, it may not happen, the GFS says it goes out to sea. But I think we should all be made aware of the possibility so we can plan how to get ready if it should begin to aim at us. I'm concerned that the possibility is being ignored in case it doesn't happen. OK, I hope it doesn't. But I think we should all make our own decision about considering the problem.

I'm having a hard time typing and listening to the debate. So here is a photo of the model as constructed today. Notice the extremely low central pressure, and just to the west, a trough of arctic cold dropping down from Alaska/Siberia/northern Canada. So the coldest arctic cold meeting the warmest tropical air on our coast:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp140/snowstargazer/Weather/HalloweenHurricane.jpg

 
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#182 ·
Re: Halloween Hurricane
Pressure at 939mb. Winds at 90mph. Traveling at 28mph. And they say there is so much power in the storm it will take hours, even 10's of hours, before it begins to lose strength once it makes landfall. This storm is a terror!
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Juggernaught. Winds outside the boat are 45 steady gust hit 63 on tridata wind instrument, driving rain sideways, Haleakula bouncing around in slip. Just had a nice bowl f homemade chili after walking around the docks, which took a huge effort , my Gill folulies are great, nice and dry inside, took my snorkel mask and put it on, as well as boots,

Got the picture......Halloween early.......trick or treat...
 
#190 ·
NJ Gov Christie Chastises EM Officials Who Didn't Listen

NJ Gov. Chris Christie has just publicly chastised those emergency management officials who didn't heed his warning. He said EM rescue efforts have been suspended until tomorrow and "if you can hear me... you'll have to just hunker down."

In Atlantic City some sought shelter in a building only a block away from the shore and "that area is now under water."

Christie had earlier ordered a mandatory evacuation but later rescinded it under pressure of local officials. In his press conference, he chastised those who didn't order a local evacuation.
 
#192 ·
Having worked in Atlantic City for 18 years in one of the casinos, they are the safest place to shelter and they are on the boardwalk and beach. Sometimes the street ends flood due to the storm sewers being long pipes from street ends buried under the sand reaching out into he ocean. The governor was probably misinformed

The problem with nor'easter s and hurricanes for those of us on the east coast is wind and water

Water is divided into storm surge., usually felt in the northern quadrants of the onshore flow of a hurricane. And flooding. Most people who have never lived on a barrier island like Atlantic City, most Nj seashore communities, NC islands. Don't understand the true ways the danger exists for flooding. It does not come from the ocean side.

A barrier island has a by or back bay behind it with an inlet somewhere. When a hurricane rides up the coast it's head flows NE winds pushing we're in the inlet. High tide occurs but the water cannot come out because of wind direction, and the next high tide comes into the back by on top of he previous one, a hurricane moves fast so this Galen's once, while a northeaster happens for 2-3 days thus 4-6 high tides on top of each other. Islands lie Atlantic City do not loos from the ocean side rather they flood from the bayside. Moving into the back or center of the island will not be prudent. Moving back just far nough o beat the storm surge is best.

Atlantic city is a large island called Absecon island and consists of 4 cities. AC, Ventnor, Margate, and Longport. i think the highest ground point s 10. Ft above sea level
 
#196 ·
I've been channel surfing the past 30-40 minutes. This is pretty big. It's on all the news channels, most are having almost exclusive coverage on it. CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, WGN and even MSNBC during their Politics Nation show.

All, that is, except Fox. Fox was covering the attack on the US Embassy in Libya, the Romney campaign and how Obama is losing states were once a lock for him. :confused:
 
#197 ·
I've been channel surfing the past 30-40 minutes. This is pretty big. It's on all the news channels, most are having almost exclusive coverage on it. CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, WGN and even MSNBC during their Politics Nation show.

All, that is, except Fox. Fox was covering the attack on the US Embassy in Libya, the Romney campaign and how Obama is losing states were once a lock for him. :confused:
Well, I just flipped over and FOX was on Sandy coverage. So, if anyone was political here, I'm afraid it was you.
 
#200 ·
How much water is in that pond Caleb? The ENC charts have no depth info. With the wind forecast as it is: SE, anchoring over on the Croton side anywhere along the beach would probably keep them well protected. The big tide surge will come on tonight's high tide.
 
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#203 · (Edited)
Some quick updates I'm hearing from around the Bay.

There is severe damage to homes and marinas on Long Beach Island.

On parts of the island the dunes have been overtopped and the ocean has reportedly met the bay.

Hope anyone who decided to ride it out on the island makes it through the night OK.

The USGS weather station at Barnegat Light reported wind gusts in excess of 80 miles an hour.

The tidal surge up Cedar Creek is up to 7 feet acording to USGS Tide Station.

It should be about the same surge for those who've gone up Forked River.

Update on Shelter Harbor 10/31 3PM:
The news is getting better for Shelter Harbor. Boats in the 12th street lot are OK. Boats in the lot behind the condos took the hit. One boat that was earlier reported missing has been found. The boat on C dock that was reported sinking is OK now (no other details). There's damage to the floating docks but they didn't float over the pilings as originally reported.
 
#204 ·
Wind gust of 90 reported last night at Bay Bridge. Storm center (not an "eye" because it wasn't officially a hurricane when it came ashore and mixed with the cold front according to NWS) stalled over Baltimore area last night at midnight. Had we been aboard, we would have watched the low pressure peg the dial on our barometer (938 mb?) Water here at our marina is to the stringers; or about 2-3 ft above normal. No major casualties; a couple of shredded biminis. We and our boat are chilly but ok. Conserving power.
 
#206 ·
Thx JimJazz & JulieMor! We're taking the day off to rest, recover, put the boat back together and generally process the storm. And to raise a glass to all who were on duty yesterday: Navy, Coast Guard, LEOs ... and our excellent marina staff.
 
#207 ·
We got lucky in the Philadelphia region, the center passed to the south near Wilmington DE, producing 55mph winds and a surge of 3 to 4 ft.
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Water levels are predicted to return to the normal range for the rest of the week.

Coastal NJ and NY City appear to have got the worst of this one.

Rick at TakeFive checked on my boat this morning and it was still on the stands, thanks Rick.

The section of the marina where the boat is located is under a few inches of water at normal high high tide.
 
#208 · (Edited)
Yes, I did a brief tour of all the Essington boatyards and no boats tipped over. I saw a couple boats with shredded biminis because the owners left them up. After Irene I had seen bent and twisted metal, but this time just shredded cloth. Several powerboats had canvas enclosing their cockpits and left it up, and from a distance they appeared to fare just fine. As long as all edges of the canvas were secure (and stayed that way), it appears that things did not get shredded.

Flood level did hit a record in Philadelphia, reaching 10.62'. Previous record was 10.5'. Irene hit 10.0', which was equal to what it hit during a Noreaster in April 2011. So the Delaware River flood in Philly was the highest ever, but not by much, and comparable to peak floods we see every few years. So all the docks that I saw did not float off their pilings. [EDIT: I should add that the next flood at ~2pm could go back to the same level.]

My own boat fared better than I expected. We had absolutely no topside leaks - nothing in the battery compartment, nothing in the bilge, nothing under the v-berth hatch. It was a different story for Irene, where despite taping a bunch of seams, I got enough water to kick the bilge pump on. It looks like the speaker I sealed up a month ago completely eliminated the prior leak problem.

I'm hoping that all of you have similarly good news.
 
#210 ·
Re: Forked River & LBI Updates

I just received an email from a friend who lives in Forked River, NJ. Evidently Silver Cloud Marina took a bit of a beating but most boats appear to have weathered the storm OK. Water got up into the parking lot at Tall Oaks but boats blocked up seem to be OK, so my boat should be OK. Fingers crossed.

Wilberts and the State Marina are still under water. Definitely a great job by Dave, Dennis and the crew pulling and prepping boats. These guys know what they're doing.

No word on marinas closer to the bay. Evidently Bay Ave is still flooded out. I'm going to try and get down later today to check on my boat if the roads are passable.

Water levels reported by the USGS tide station on Cedar Creek are at 7.25 feet above normal and not dropping. Probably a combination of rain water run off and water trapped in Barnegat Bay. I'd expect water levels on Forked River to be similar.

Long Beach Island didn't fair so well. What I've been hearing out of Shelter Harbor Marina in Beach Haven is pretty dire (see post #203). Evidently Morrisons took a pretty good hit as well. The picture below is a cell phone photo forwarded to me by a friend on the island. I don't have any more details on Morrison's but the photo speaks for itself.

 
#212 ·
Re: Forked River & LBI Updates

Jim, that is one UGLY photo!

I just received an email from a friend who lives in Forked River, NJ. Evidently Silver Cloud Marina took a bit of a beating but most boats appear to have weathered the storm OK. Water got up into the parking lot at Tall Oaks but boats blocked up seem to be OK, so my boat should be OK. Fingers crossed.

Wilberts and the State Marina are still under water. Definitely a great job by Dave, Dennis and the crew pulling and prepping boats. These guys know what they're doing.

No word on marinas closer to the bay. Evidently Bay Ave is still flooded out. I'm going to try and get down later today to check on my boat if the roads are passable.

Water levels reported by the USGS tide station on Cedar Creek are at 7.25 feet above normal and not dropping. Probably a combination of rain water run off and water trapped in Barnegat Bay. I'd expect water levels on Forked River to be similar.

Long Beach Island didn't fair so well. What I've been hearing out of Shelter Harbor Marina in Beach Haven is pretty dire (see post #203). Evidently Morrisons took a pretty good hit as well. The picture below is a cell phone photo forwarded to me by a friend on the island. I don't have any more details on Morrison's but the photo speaks for itself.

 
#211 ·
Doing fine here. Worst appears to be over although system is parked north of Baltimore and needs to move on. High tide with south winds gavels us 3 ft above normal and washed over our piers and docks at 7 bit was manageable. Only one dock box broke cause the owner didn't put holes in the bottom. One more high tide to go and the water is emptying from this AM.

Still no power so running of the batteries. Black cat propane heater getting a workout as the temps are in the low 40s. Glad the wind finally died off. Probably sty tonight and back to work tomorrow.

Haleakula is one tuff gal.

Dave
 
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