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The European (ECMWF), generally considered the most accurate of the major computer models, is showing a Katrina type hurricane hitting the mid Atlantic and New England on or about Halloween.
Sure, it may not happen, the GFS says it goes out to sea. But I think we should all be made aware of the possibility so we can plan how to get ready if it should begin to aim at us. I'm concerned that the possibility is being ignored in case it doesn't happen. OK, I hope it doesn't. But I think we should all make our own decision about considering the problem.
I'm having a hard time typing and listening to the debate. So here is a photo of the model as constructed today. Notice the extremely low central pressure, and just to the west, a trough of arctic cold dropping down from Alaska/Siberia/northern Canada. So the coldest arctic cold meeting the warmest tropical air on our coast:
These photos were just posted by Southwinds marina.
Water looks to be about 2-2 1/2' in the parking lot. Docks under water. Most of the boats who decided to weather the storm there were tied in the lee of the condos. No photos from there so no telling how they made out.
Boats blocked behind the office. I'm wondering how high the water was during the surge. Notice the power boat on the right is shifted off at least one of its stands.
Looking out towards Forked River, the Beach Bar is on the left.
This storm that was supposed to drop 2-4" of rain and give us 55 mph winds has seemingly just...well.. disappeared. It was almost calm this morning. The skies in The Adirondacks are clearing at present, very little rain has fallen. There's a little wind but Sandy seems to have scooted right by us. Not complaining, mind you, but this was the weirdest darned storm. The idea that a hurricane, packing 90 mph winds could hit NYC, just 250 miles south and then veer off to completely miss us is astounding. We and the folks in Vermont are breathing a sigh of relief that we did not get the "500 year" floods that occurred with Irene last year.
I think it is just headed due north instead of hooking back east up into the St. Lawrence Valley. It has every appearance of clearing out right now. I can't detect wind direction here down in the valley but would bet it's turning west and clearing out. I fully expected to hear the wind howling and the creek roaring this morning and maybe a ride over to the boat to see if it was still on its stands but it was calm as could be...strange.
I'm delighted to see so many who posted still posting, thus they made it through the storm and have time enough and power to post. Thanks Chef for your updates as the storm came through.
I see a glaring absence of CalebD, who posted that he lived near the red area on the SLOSH map.
I hope his home is OK and that he is too busy and/or no power. Anyone have any contact/knowledge of Caleb?
No Hurricane Warning for What Could Be the Most Expensive Storm in History
Saw this on Accuweather today, a video made before Sandy hit. Part of the article:
AccuWeather CEO Barry Myers urged the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to reverse its decision not to issue hurricane or tropical storm warnings for Sandy north of North Carolina.
"To indicate that there is a landfalling hurricane and to issue warnings about it is the most effective thing that can be done to warn the public," Myers said.....
.....Not issuing such warnings has already led to mixed signals for both public safety officials and the public.
"Mayor Bloomberg was confused at one point over the weekend whether Sandy was a hurricane. If the mayor of the biggest city in the United States was confused, emergency management and others certainly can be confused," Myers added.
Aw come on, no one was confused about its strength. Guess he should have read your posts here on SailNet. Next timne forward them to him.
Sandy was covered and talked about from days away. I have access to the NY TV stations and they were talking about flooding and surge 5 days out. Bloomberg certainly could and I am sure did call experts from the NHC many times. Unless you lived under a rock you knew this was called a superstorm, perfect storm, Frankenstorm. Everyone knew that this was a merge storm.
Why would the NHC call it a hurrican once it lost what defines it as a hurricane. Early on the were talking about it beconing and extra-tropical storm and why.
Actually it worked out for those homeowners in MD who had things happen to their homes with regards to their insurance and NOT being classified as a hurricane. It is my understanding that when it is classified as a hurricane a special provision kicks in in my insurance which works in the benefit of the insurance company.
I agree that there was so much press about this storm, whatever it was called, that anyone who ignored warnings based on what it was called, had their head deeply buried in the sand. That said, it does seem like playing semantic games around what to call a storm is confusing and the NWS could have made it clearer to those who might be easily confused by the wording, that there was no change in the warnings about potential damage. In the future, NOAA probably ought to make sure that meteorological nuances don't even have the possibility of confusing the easily confused.
I have put a question into my insurance carrier for future reference. My policy is clear. There must be a tropical storm warning, or above, in effect at the time I haul out for coverage to apply. Coverage is half the haul out charges.
In practice, what I've found, is the carriers have been willing to pay anyway, because they know it was in their best interest to encourage you to do so. It was either in Irene, or maybe Earl the year before, they sent me a letter asking me to acknowledge that they did not have to pay under the terms over coverage, but would anyway. I never got a clear answer as to why they needed this. In fact, there was a tropical storm warning in effect when I hauled, so I refused to sign it. They paid, but it certainly left me with the impression that they can and would deny coverage on technical grounds, if they felt it was in their best interest.
In RI, we most certainly did get tropical storm force winds, but I do not recall there being a warning. It was clear we would expect this level of wind and I pulled for the winter, regardless. I'm not making a claim, but wonder what they would do.
If the NHC isn't going to call something with 74 knot winds a hurricane in the future, this could be an issue. I will let you know what they say.
my cousin, phyllis schuyler beals, lost her boat--it vanished without a trace-- she was in a morgan area(????) marina, where she said was much much damage, and she is stilnot allowed into the area.
she sent me this message, after i discovered her boat was a walkabout---
:
Hi Karen, wish I knew what happened, yes maybe she's landed atop a building somewhere. Some boats landed atop railroad bridges. I think I brought this on by renaming her. Original name was Heelin Laddie. 10 years no name. Last spring we painted Serenity Now astern (Seinfeld favorite of our family) & now she may lie at the bottom for all I know... My marina living pal (Ruben) continued to look for her. He will be doing diving salvage work also & says he will keep looking... I felt last night as if I didn't deserve to have a boat nor did I take my responsibilities seriously enough. Not much sleep. Ironically 5 vessels that rode out the storm on their moorings came through unscathed. Me I put her by marina up
A sheltered creek area & with the full moon tide, 12 foot storm surge & 70-100 mph gusts it added up to disaster. Feel for the folks without homes though. Maybe next year is a break year from owning a sailboat- regroup & kayak or sailing canoe! Love ya,
Schuyler
Approximately 2/3's of the moored boats in the Hudson off Nyack suffered mooring failures due to huge storm surge, wind and wave action. I had considered hauling our boat out but did not. Ironically, many of the boats that were hauled were toppled by the storm surge and winds. Amazingly, our boat survived on its mooring. I'm lucky to have only lost power for 5 days as many others are in much worse situations.
We are not used to being on the "wrong" side of a storm like this as they usually scoot well to our east. It has been a very difficult learning experience for the region.
Caleb....glad to hear you pulled through all right. Ive been waiting to hear from you. Sometime luck is really what determines thuings no matter how much we plan. I am glad the mooring worked out well for you.
This is a more literary piece about the sinking of the "Bounty" and scant on details of the captains thinking, but it is good reading: Robin Beth Schaer | The Paris Review
Borrowed from Roger Long's post on sbo.org.
I'm glad that some of you enjoyed the Robin Beth Schaer piece I linked above. I also enjoyed reading it.
My original estimate of 2/3's of the boats on mooring getting loose was a bit high.
I visited Nyack today and saw the boats still there, the few that were placed ashore well above the river banks and one sunk in the mooring field. I'd guess that the survival rate of boats at their moorings during Sandy was well over 50%.
Power back tonight, seven days out. House seems warm, bright, noisy. Home and family fared well, boat took a beating, but still floats. She will be repaired. Hopes and prayers for those that lost houses and loved ones.
The weather just won't quit. Here is the current forecast regarding the approaching Nor'easter;
Statement as of 3:54 AM EST on November 06, 2012
... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night...
* locations... New York Harbor... the Long Island South Shore back
bays... the Ocean Shores of New York City and Long Island... and
Peconic and gardiners bays of eastern Long Island.
* Tidal departures... around 3 feet.
* Beach erosion... large breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet on top of
any surge could cause significant additional beach erosion and
overwash.
* Timing... around the times of high tide early Wednesday
afternoon and again after midnight Wednesday night.
* Impacts... depending on the timing... track and intensity of the
coastal storm... minor to moderate coastal flooding could occur
across multiple high tide cycles. Locally major flooding could occur
in places due to changes to underwater slopes and/or loss of
protective dunes both caused by Sandy. Widespread flooding of
vulnerable shore roads and/or basements is possible... hampering
recovery efforts.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
... NY Harbor water levels for Wednesday afternoon...
High Wind Watch
Statement as of 9:35 AM EST on November 06, 2012
... High wind watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night...
* locations... all of northeastern New Jersey... portions of the
lower Hudson Valley... southern Connecticut... Long Island and
New York City.
* Hazards... damaging winds.
* Winds... north 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.
* Timing... Wednesday and Wednesday night.
* Impacts... winds of this magnitude will be capable of producing
downed trees and power lines... as well as minor property
damage.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
Thanks for that link, since this is a boat forum I'll mention particularly that if you scroll 1/4 of the way down there is a before photo of hundreds of boats at finger docks. The after photo shows only about half a dozen boats at the docks and big piles of boats tossed all over the land. Boater's nightmare!
I don't like seeing a repeated pattern setting up with storms hitting the same devastated area. First Sandy, then the nor'easter with wind and snow. Now the ECMWF is showing another seemingly tropical type storm hitting the same area around Nov. 19th. A long way off, hope it doesn't happen, but the potential is being seen by the European computer model. I wouldn't be concerned, but I would keep my eye on it. Forewarned is forearmed. And the European has been hitting them out of the park, predicting both Sandy and the nor'easter.
The look may be similar, but the pressure is much higher than Sandy, and the winds less. The darn tropical season should be over by now!
Hey storms, come on up here where we have wood heat, chainsaws, and generators. We are in much better shape than NYC and NJ, we had almost no damage.
I know what you mean. We have had almost no significant weather here in the Adirondacks. These storms both bypassed us completely. People I know on LI STILL have no power and someone I know watched his house disappear as he swam away down on the Jersey shore. I won't fret though because we'll surely get our turn. Now I'm kinda glad I decided to stay put instead of sailing south this fall...maybe not.
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