The Game of Chess

[sailaway21]

Oh, there is certainly dissent and discomfort within Iran. So what? They are basically powerless to effect change. That is, unless certain parties, with an interest in change in Iran, and the region, were to financially support these dissidents, maybe even arm them. Just a thought.

[PBzeer]

Just read an interesting commentary on the hostage situation. It was their opinion that Iran was trying to provoke an attack, so as to rally the population to the mullahs.

[sailaway21]

That makes sense. The old USSR used to practise the us versus them routine, too. Regardless of your disaffection with your country, you do not wish to see her attacked from without. At root, this is a very effective tool for keeping dissidents repressed. Let's see if I remember the progression. We are under attack. All citizens should rally to the motherland. Those with a beef against this totalitarian regime are to be repressed, they are impeding our efforts against the foreign aggressor. In fact, they are in league with the foreign aggressor. New "rules" will have to be implemented for the duration. (rules that, coincidently, make it easier to round up and imprison the dissident elements. All without a large public out-cry)

There are many in Iran who remember what freedom was like, if not democracy. "Are you better off now, than you were four years ago" is not just a US political slogan. Economics matter. The Iranian theocracy is implementing the implosion of the Iranian economy. They are not drilling, and they are not maintaining what rigs they have. They are not even building refineries, hence the importation of gasoline. Some well respected economists figure they've got less than ten years on the current course before real economic strife arrives. Of course, if they've had the bomb for eight years, when that day arrives, it will all be a moot point. Whatever level of oppression will be needed to keep the Iranian people in line will be used, and what the world thinks about it just won't matter.

This is how you turn a first world, or second world, nation into a third world nation in one generation. The USSR is illustrative.

[donrr1]

And just like the USSR, Bush would like to bankrupt Iran into a powerless position in the Middle East for when the time comes to quell the Dems and bring the troops home. That is a major reason Bush is against any timeline. Eventually Iran will HAVE to deal with internal matters. So, keep Al-Queda off balance in Afganistan, kill as many as we can in Iraq, keep the pressure on Iran internally so they have less stake in post-war Iraq, let the Isrealis peck away at Syria... Check Mate.

Don

[sailaway21]

Not much too much to object to there, Don. Now if we can stop their progress on nukes....