Were we in recession in August - no
were we in recession in September - no
were we in recession in October - no
were we in recession in November - no
were we in recession in December - no
were we in recession in January - no
were we in recession in February - Reports of maybe, decline .07%, preliminary figures only so far.
Track record for certain chicken little Florida mortgage manipulators:
1 maybe for 6 WRONG
LOL... I love this....
May I remind you that last fall I made a prediction. That prediction was disputed by every neocon in this thread. I was attacked and ridiculed. So.. where are all these guys now that my prediction is true? I'll tell you where they are, scrambling to hang onto their jobs.
The only conservatives left posting in here besides yourself and Sailaway think that Bloomberg is a department store.
We all know that sailway will never be man enough to say he was wrong, but I expected more from you..
This article is nothing less than a harbinger of impending doom. Even I can't believe it's this bad. And Chuckles, this is from a good conservative publication.
If Bloomberg got the story right, we are in more trouble than even I thought.
This is my worst case scenario.
This is a new CNBC video where Greenspan blames Wall Street for the crisis and says we are in recession.
This is yet another great example of a good thread with great information that goes off on personal tangents. The reality is that the posters on both sides feel strongly about their positions. I do not hold either side to blame, nor do I hold either blameless. It is frustarting for those that might still be following this. Try to keep it civil, please. Let's not let this thing totally devolve into the solar thread... if it has not already.
That being said, I will cautiously make a shallow entrance into this with my viewpoints. It is interesting because (gulp) they do not necessarily agree with Rick, but also may not be that far off. The funny thing is I too was in Florida. I think there is a connection, becuase there is no real economical downturn in Texas.
I bought my house on the water in Florida. I was there for the craze. My house apprecaited somewhere around 10,000-20,000/month (on paper). I over doubled in value in a year. We were on the water (as a slight conscillation), but still here is how bad it got:
There were four fulltime homeowners (lived at their house at least 50% of the time) on my entire block. THe rest were rent homes or bought and flipped (mostly flipped).
My neighbor to my right went from one rent house and a nice fulltime job as a builder, to no builder and MANY rent houses. Let me describe his 'rent' houses. They were not exactly vacation resorts. He took them, bought them, and flipped them for hundreds of thousands in profit. He then took much of that and reinvested in more property. I think he financed his notes through the bank.
My neighbor to my left bought their house before we got there. They decided to sell as they would make hundreds of thousands. They put the sign in their front yard and within 24 hours had 5 offers (I think they were all cash... maybe only a few cash) with the buyers bickering in their front yard over who would get it first and who would pay the most. They sold it for $100,000 (I believe) more than asking price in 24 hours.
We would often go to this little 'greasy spoon' restaurant on the water. EVERYONE it seemed talked about real estate. You could not lose on it because Florida was highly undervalued. There were going to be millions of Baby boomers moving down there. Interest rates were only going up and the properties were appreciating at 10-20k/month. Blah, blah, blah. My waitress owned 4-5 (not water front, they were land locked) properties. No houses, just unmarked land. I asked her how? The bank gave her the loans.
My best friend (still my best friend, they were live aboard cruisers too, incidentally), would build condos and sell them out BEFORE they even broke ground. Not cheap ones either... we are talking about 1/2 million to many, many millions for a condo that was nothing but a sign on the land. THey would put 5% down, with the other 20% due at closing . Closing was at completion. None of these people had any intention of moving in there. They bought these for investment and to flip them somewhere between breaking ground and completion. They would flip them for ten's of thousands of dollars. Who carried the notes for theses builders and people? The banks.
Are you seeing a pattern here?
This was Cape Coral, FL and Naples, FL. Right now, when last I went there (January), 25% of Cape Coral was in repo. The banks are sitting on all of that. There is no industry to support the rediculous costs of home there. Recession does not properly convey what has happened. I had a real estate person tell me that it made a great opportunity to buy... but even if the costs of housing dropped in half from where they are right now, it would be too high to support the non-economy.
I saw that coming and got out. No one would believe me or listen to me when I said it was going to get ugly. It was people and banks in greed. The people have mostly walked away with some losses (usually their down) while the bank is left holding the bag on everything else.
That is why our country is a mess... greed. That was the dot com too, greed. People get in a feeding frenzy and do not properly think about what is going on. Do they deserve what they got? Do the banks? The investment companies? The builders?
Do you and I, who were smart enough not to get caught up in that (Assuming you were not, and no offense if you were), buy them out with our tax dollars? I personally do not feel that is right. They banks are run by intelligent people. They knew it was a house of cards long ago. Still, they continued lending. But if we do not bail out the bank(s) and investment firm(s), I cannot imagine the total financial collapse - not just in the US but globally. It seems to this dad that all the banks are interconnected. Once one falls, two more go down with it, then four more, then eight... etc. The Great Depression never looked so good. If I am not mistaken Bernake made his rise to power through his strong knowledge of the Great Depression and is an expert on the subject. I bet this is scaring the crap out of him right now.
Maybe in the end, I did not get out of it after all.
- CD
PS Just a disclaimer: I am NOT an economics professor. I never even took it in college. Many or most of you obviously know a lot more about this than I do. I am simply giving you my uneducated view point.
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Sailnet Adminstrator & Moderator (at large soon)!!
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"... the only matter of consequence before me is what I will do with my alloted time. I can remain on shore, paralyzed with fear, or I can raise my sails and dip and soar in the breeze." - Richard Bode, First you have to row a little boat (pg. 94)
I'm wondering, if the market doesn't actually crash, if this thread will keep going until it does.
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John
Ontario 32 - Aria
Free, is the heart, that lives not, in fear.
Full, is the spirit, that thinks not, of falling.
True, is the soul, that hesitates not, to give.
Alive, is the one, that believes, in love. JCP
Just kdding Rick. Trying to get you to laugh. Don't take this personally. It is just a thread in the internet, that whether you be right or wrong, everyone agrees or no one does, will do nothing to change the direction of what will happen.
As such, just smile and relax. THAT is what it is all about.
- CD
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