Market crash: are we there yet ?

[sailaway21]

A nice summary of how the dollar is valued and the purported food shortage.
RealClearMarkets - Articles - The Food-Shortage Myth

[merttan]

When I came the US for college, I had an option to buy a house... All I said was, the prices are blown by sellers... That was 8 years ago... And I'm still waiting... And saving... And waiting... What do you think big real estate companies are waiting for? The big crash, none of them seem to be interested in chipping in for the crisis...
Once everything hits the bottom which surely will, because this country became a spender not a builder in last 3 decades; then I'll buy a house at its worth...
Meanwhile, don't expect much from the government because it is in deficit itself... And to save people, make unemployment payments tighter! But make the companies that fire people when they are benefiting pay them! There are millions on welfare who can work but yet choose not to...

[wt888]

I just ran across an interesting article on this:

ferrarilife.com/library/download_pdf.php?type=flq&id=91
Page 4

seems some of the rich are buying up select Ferraris as assets.

[chucklesR]

And still no recession:
Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008

I'm aware numbers change. Bottom line is despite all the nay sayers'sthe facts say while not healthy, it's still not a recession, and no, the market still has hasn't crashed.

[xort]

Aw come on chuckles, take your blinders off.

We know the numbers are phoney,
we know nobody has a job,
we know nobody is paying their mortgage,
we know the dollar is freefalling,
we know we will soon run out of food,
We know we will soon run out of oil

we know bush lied and people are still dieing but now they are dieing not just from his war but from his ethanol scam, his depression caused suicide rate, his kicking sick people out of hospitals, his poisoning of the entire planet, his global warming, his tax cuts for the wealthy, his supreme court, his cute daughters, his his well everything...it's all bush's fault

[chucklesR]

So trim or eliminate the bush then, it fixes all the woe's in the world - or at least distracts the heck out of me

[chris_gee]

A reasonable approximation of the effect of changing how statistics are derived is given by -
Actual method of calculating the change in GDP;
Real quarterly GDP was 4.1% - 3.5% inflation = .6%.
Using the March figures annualised which is not correct but a reasonable approximation to compare the effect of CPI calculation methods on GDP calculations we get -
Current method 4.1 - 4.0 = .1
Pre 1998 method 4.1 - 7.3 = -3.2
Pre 1983 method 4.1 - 11.3 = -7.2.

The benefits of understating inflation include;
Reducing welfare payments.
Reducing interest rates.
Overstating GDP.
Reducing wage pressures.
And depending on one’s point of view transferring wealth from savers to speculators.
Gives an inflated impression of prosperity.

[Idiens]

What do you guys think of two theories I've seen reported:-

1. The consumers have gone from sub-prime debt to credit card debt and the next bubble to burst is credit card companies.

2. The Financial sharks, having fixed the property market, have gone on the commodities markets, driving prices up, particularly on food, which they know the governments (alias tax payers) will have to bail them out on (again).

[wt888]

True but when you look at the value of the $ vs Euro, the rest of the world has drop the total value of the US economy substancially in the past few years.

[wt888]

Originally Posted by Idiens

What do you guys think of two theories I've seen reported:-

1. The consumers have gone from sub-prime debt to credit card debt and the next bubble to burst is credit card companies.

2. The Financial sharks, having fixed the property market, have gone on the commodities markets, driving prices up, particularly on food, which they know the governments (alias tax payers) will have to bail them out on (again).

The UK is facing a serious credit card debt problem and I have heard that Citibank in the US already is having to write CC debt down. Net net, yes it will be the next big implosion.