Market crash: are we there yet ?

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

Let me see if I have this right. Any positive numbers are false, while all negative ones are true. Is that about right? Because that's how you come across.

How interesting that when I posted this comment from Goldman Sachs, you want to hang it around my neck. Let's recap. Goldman Sachs commented on the numbers, not me. The same Goldman Sachs that gave us Secretary of the Treasury Paulson is telling the world that the economy numbers are bogus... they don't make sense as they conveniently left out the inflation component.

Chuckles and now you call this negativity. So, when bullcrap from the administration is caught by a Republican company (how could you call them anything else) you decide you can ignore it by attacking the messenger?

How Republican of you...... Folks might think that it would be more constructive to forget the messenger and address the issue.

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by chucklesR

Um, Rick, inflation is ignored when calculating these (month or month, year over year) numbers.

Apparently only under republican administrations... These are the same people who give us our GDP. With your logic all we have to do is devalue the dollar further each year and proclaim an astounding economy based on increased sales numbers.

Wall Street doesn't buy it and neither do I. No one buys it any more.... smoke and mirrors don't put people back to work. A solid economy does.

Oh, that's right, John McCain says the economy is just fine.. How the heck can you continue to defend this position?

Today from the AP

July incomes drop by largest amount in 3 years

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer 25 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Personal incomes plunged in July while consumer spending slowed significantly as the impact of billions of dollars in government rebate checks began to wane.



This is Negativity????? Bullcrap. This is Reality.

Ok, this is my addition to chuckles revision.

Yes, inflation has to be accounted for, and this is exactly what wasn't done when administration numbers are released. If you measure goods and services or an export component and proclaim an increase over last years numbers, where in this announced number is inflation accounted? It isn't. That was the point of the Goldman Sachs press release. Goldman Sachs' point was that if inflation was factored into the numbers the growth is negative.

Before you answer, think about this. I hardly think it would be in Goldman Sachs best interest to misstate this. Do you?

[PBzeer]

I'm not trying to hang anything around your neck. I'm just trying to assess your point of view, vis-a-vis, the numbers you keep using.

Being a cruiser, and going from one part of country to the other, I fail to find, in my observations, any epochal shifts in behavior that indicate the dire situation you seem to see. The vast majority of people I converse with seem to feel they are doing ok and aren't overly concerned about their future.

Of course, since most of them, but certainly not all, are fellow cruisers, they do tend to be a bit more self-disciplined, and so, avoid the pitfalls of spending beyond their means, which is the root problem in the economy.

[chucklesR]

Sorry, I seriously edited my last post. Please review

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

I'm not trying to hang anything around your neck. I'm just trying to assess your point of view, vis-a-vis, the numbers you keep using.

Being a cruiser, and going from one part of country to the other, I fail to find, in my observations, any epochal shifts in behavior that indicate the dire situation you seem to see. The vast majority of people I converse with seem to feel they are doing ok and aren't overly concerned about their future.

Of course, since most of them, but certainly not all, are fellow cruisers, they do tend to be a bit more self-disciplined, and so, avoid the pitfalls of spending beyond their means, which is the root problem in the economy.

Paul, I do see your point but is this an accurate way of evaluating the strength of the economy? Cruisers are more concerned about the stock market than they are about finding a job, or supporting a family, or sending kids to college or for that matter planning retirement. Heck, Cruisers by definition are retired.

[PBzeer]

Well, (though I'm not Paul), you say numbers are unreliable, so it seems that actual observation is a good substitute. And it's not just individual people, it's going shopping and touring in different places that are also part of the observations.

As in most any endeavor in life, attitude is a major component. The more positive the attitude, the more likely a positive outcome. The more negative the attitude, the more likely a negative outcome.

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

Well, (though I'm not Paul), .

Oops... John, my apologies, I shouldn't be posting while writing emails.

I would love to see some positive news and would appreciate it if you could post some.

[PBzeer]

Well, I'm not a good source for news. Though I read a lot, I tend to consider the source. And economics, being what it is, is widely open to interpetation. I generally look for a midpoint between the two Ks, Kudlow and Krugman, though I do find Kudlow to be a bit more objective.

[chucklesR]

Here's some positive news.
I'm just fine. Not one of my friends or acquaintances is considering a foreclosure and I have lots of friends and acquaintances in my community.
In fact, I don't know anyone who has been laid off or is suffering in any way shape or form from this 1930's type depression. Even my real estate agent friend is busier than ever selling houses.
Every time I get a negative link on this thread I simply go to google and do a five minute search and sha-zam the other side of the story pops up, with the vast majority of the objectively reported and researched links being positive.

Numbers can be twisted, real life if more objective.

[sailaway21]

Recession, what recession?
Jerry Bowyer on 3.3 Percent Second-Quarter GDP Growth on NRO Financial on NRO Financial