Market crash: are we there yet ?

[Sailormann]

Sailormann...what happens next March?

Next March the bulk of the really bad paper starts expiring (huge amounts are out there in international territory). One or two quarters of excruciatingly bad corporate profits and then credit markets will ease somewhat once the remaining write-offs have been taken and many heads have been severed. Buy big with a medium-term orientation at that time. (Fall of 2009 into early 2010).

There will be a period of mourning, hand-wringing and general condemanation of all things Yankee, however the newly (and permanently) devalued dollar should enable you folks to start exporting somewhat seriously.

Look for at least one of your big three carmakers to go titters. Not sure who it's going to be but GM seems to be the least willing/able to make the changes required. They are still running around saying that every third car in the nation's driveways is a GM.

Trouble is that their traditional market is greying and starting to make do with one automobile - usually a fuel-efficient, dependable marvel of foreign engineering. The current GM's are the last ones that group will own.

Their kids are living in cities - either no cars or small cars but no horking big gas guzzlers. No cachet.

Ford builds better trucks, Chrysler builds better peppy cars and your lack of a nationalised health care system means that GM's company-funded plan will be carrying the swiftly deteriorating pensioners through their MRI's, CT scans, bypasses, etc. etc. Billions in potential liability. Bankruptcy (or, God forbid, - nationalisation) is probably inevitable. Smart folk would orchestrate it rather than sit and wait for it to happen.

Lack of a national health care system will become more and more of an impediment to attracting foreign investment. You're going to need foreign dollars to get your factories up and running - you have none of your own left.

Expect a LIBOR scandal to hit the rags in the next 6 to 9 months.

Good Luck ! Hope everything works out well

[Rickm505]

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has told one of its subsidiaries—(Kansas Bankers Surety)—to stop insuring bank deposits above the amount guaranteed by the federal government. This insurance was purchased by banks marketing to attract large depositors.

What does Buffet know that we don't?

[Sapperwhite]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

....What does Buffet know that we don't?

Concidering his wealth, I'd say he knows a lot we don't.

[sailhog]

Ike is heading for those oil rigs off the coast of Texas, and crude is still down a buck. Some knucklehead at Goldman has oil ending the year at $120/barrel. I'll wager that oil ends the year at $75.

[sailaway21]

Originally Posted by Sailormann

Next March the bulk of the really bad paper starts expiring (huge amounts are out there in international territory). One or two quarters of excruciatingly bad corporate profits and then credit markets will ease somewhat once the remaining write-offs have been taken and many heads have been severed. Buy big with a medium-term orientation at that time. (Fall of 2009 into early 2010).

There will be a period of mourning, hand-wringing and general condemanation of all things Yankee, however the newly (and permanently) devalued dollar should enable you folks to start exporting somewhat seriously.

Look for at least one of your big three carmakers to go titters. Not sure who it's going to be but GM seems to be the least willing/able to make the changes required. They are still running around saying that every third car in the nation's driveways is a GM.

Trouble is that their traditional market is greying and starting to make do with one automobile - usually a fuel-efficient, dependable marvel of foreign engineering. The current GM's are the last ones that group will own.

Their kids are living in cities - either no cars or small cars but no horking big gas guzzlers. No cachet.

Ford builds better trucks, Chrysler builds better peppy cars and your lack of a nationalised health care system means that GM's company-funded plan will be carrying the swiftly deteriorating pensioners through their MRI's, CT scans, bypasses, etc. etc. Billions in potential liability. Bankruptcy (or, God forbid, - nationalisation) is probably inevitable. Smart folk would orchestrate it rather than sit and wait for it to happen.

Lack of a national health care system will become more and more of an impediment to attracting foreign investment. You're going to need foreign dollars to get your factories up and running - you have none of your own left.

Expect a LIBOR scandal to hit the rags in the next 6 to 9 months.

Good Luck ! Hope everything works out well

I found the above of little surprise from a man who thinks both that Mercedes-Benz does not build the finest car in the world and that the JD Power surveys are an accurate reflection of a car's quality. M-B may now have a few, very few, equals but it still has no betters. Chrysler has no products that anyone currently wants to buy. Their future is strictly based upon the day to day feelings of Ceberus-their private owner. The Neon is no longer in production although the "peppy" Dodge Challenger, with 450hp, is due out very soon-should sell about a dozen of those.

You might want to do some research on the latest Big 3-UAW contract that significantly addressed health care costs. Nationalization is unlikely as no one here wants to have an economy similar to, well, Canada.

Ford builds a less expensive truck-there is no evidence it is a better truck than offered by GM. There is also no evidence that our greying market is buying fewer or even smaller cars or down-sizing to one car. In fact the grey panther market you mention is more likely to have more than one car and one of it's cars is likely to be either a large sedan, R/V, or towing vehicle. Kids, like always, are driving smaller cars that they can afford-preferably with as much cheap horsepower as can be shoehorned into them.

I hope you know more about the market than you do cars, Americans, and how the two come together.

[Sailormann]

I hope you know more about the market than you do cars, Americans, and how the two come together.

It's not an opinion based on surveys - it's an opinon based on my friends' buying decisions. Mercedes has gone downmarket and Lexus and BMW have pretty well blown them out of the water. Audi is hot on their heels, Infiniti is gaining ground. Think of Mercedes as the teutonic "Cadillac".

Realise that there is a world outside your nation's borders. If your automakers were dependent on their US sales, they would be nowhere near the size they are today, and in all likelihood would have folded.


I know far more about Americans than any sentient being should have to.

God still hates Republicans.

Take care of yourself !

[sailaway21]

Do you have any corroborating witnesses for your sentience? (g)

[sailingdog]

Sway-

he said he knew more than any sentient being should, but i didn't see any claims of sentience for himself.

Originally Posted by sailaway21

Do you have any corroborating witnesses for your sentience? (g)

[sailhog]

Should be an interesting day for the markets.

I'm going to pause here and give a big round of applause to the SEC... Nice work, gentlemen!

[sailhog]

DJ futures are down 400 just before the bell.

I'm going predict the Dow will be down 700 at some point today, and close down at 500.