Market crash: are we there yet ?

[Rickm505]

Every Wall Street investment bank I said would fail.... is now failing. I think my predictions are now complete.

As for the market. I don't think it will close that far down. Market manipulation will kick in this afternoon on the financials to bring it back up before the close.

Chuckles must be squirming this morning.

[sailhog]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

Every Wall Street investment bank I said would fail.... is now failing. I think my predictions are now complete.

As for the market. I don't think it will close that far down. Market manipulation will kick in this afternoon on the financials to bring it back up before the close.

Chuckles must be squirming this morning.

Rick,
You had me at "Armageddon," I mean, "Hello." Apart from the tent cities in Florida, I think you've been Captain Correct. Wish I could say you were Captain Chicken Little, but...

[Rickm505]

Thanks... I think.....

This today from Reuters..
___________________________________________
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. industrial output posted its biggest slide in three years last month and September might not be much better, according to data on Monday that raised worries over an economy struggling with the worst bout of financial turmoil in a generation.

U.S. industrial production tumbled a bigger-than-expected 1.1 percent in August due to a big drop in auto production and a slide in utilities output that was tied to mild temperatures, a Federal Reserve report showed.
Manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly contracted in September while price pressures tumbled, according to separate data published by the New York Federal Reserve. The survey is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions.

The data stoked worries that the U.S. economy is still flirting with recession even though gross domestic product growth was a solid 3.3 percent in the second quarter.
____________________________________________

Let's recap.... Chuckles says we aren't in recession because of this 3.3% growth in GDP last quarter. But...all of the experts... can't figure out where the heck the GDP gain came from. When you look inside the numbers the only positives listed were that the construction industry and financials grew by 24%. Well, to say that didn't happen would be accurate and an in fact is an understatement. Which leaves the real economy continuing to contract and Washington issuing reports that nobody can justify. Except the Bush defenders on Sailnet of course.

So, these days our official policy is that the 'numbers' say there is no recession. Therefor there is no recession. Nevermind that Wall Street is crumbling and factory orders are shrinking.

"Don't pay any attention to that man behind the curtain"...

You have to admit that there's a certain logic to this. It's a shame that they can't find a credible economist who will back them up. So, does this mean that Merrill Lynch & Co is now Chicken Little? Or is it Lehman Bros now assuming the role of Chicken Little? Or could it be Secretary Paulson who is in that role? Or is it Bernake?

Wake up.. it's all of the above. There is no Chicken Little. What there is we call reality. And to think that Sailaway21 and Chuckles both said "No problems, it's just mortgages"

[wind_magic]

[Rickm505]

Not yet. The world is waiting to see if WaMu and Wachovia, among others, are next. Once the Bank failures cease, then we can say the worst is behind us.

I'd say today marks the 1/2 way point and hopefully the market low.

[wind_magic]

I'm still waiting for my 35+ VIX

[chucklesR]

Chuckles ain't squirming Capt Dark Cloud, Chuckles is watching the market keep correcting itself from it's excesses caused by people in your line of business crapping all over the market.

It is no surprise to me that you are knowledgeable about what banks and financial intuitions will fail - you wrote the paper that is causing it.
Don't bother denying your involvement, I'll have to post the link to your mortgage business and links to all of your denials - again.

Of course, I'm not squirming because not one bit of this is hurting me; nor is does it surprise me.

BTW, my friend, who is a real estate agent - sold 3 properties on friday, and another on sunday, it's not bad everywhere, just under the dark clouds and apparently in the tent cities in florida.

And oh, BTW again. I still haven't seen the NBER say we were in a recession STILL - your self scored batting average of 1000 is a little off since you claimed we were in a recession just about every other week starting last November.

[wind_magic]

Hmm. Much as I hate to admit it, it is looking more and more like a buy. VIX is up near 30 again, 29 and change at the moment, and there is a lot of juicy bad news today. Of course, better late than early ..

They are definitely charging over the hill again though ...

[lynn1120]

Originally Posted by wind_magic

no chance of a quick v shape cathartic blow out--- think "Prometheus" my lads and lasses--

it won't be over until its over and every one, and I mean everyone, in the financial services industry top to bottom becomes humbled and battered-- Hubris done 'em in
also
real estate, (retail and commercial) needs to bottom, ( not there yet, commercial is next shoe to drop)
rates need to fall ( geting there)
economy needs to bottom ( soon...?)

This must just be endured until it batters itself out. Sigh and I have a front row seat.. Don't know what to make of GDP numbers except the methodology sucks--tax returns and sales taxes are best way to measure economic activity what with the internet sales etc making up to (perhaps) as high as 50% of volume in some industries. GDP as it is calculated today does not take into account the economic effect of ie sailnet sales-- or other consulting businesses-- No, look to the tax revenues, no one ever paid taxes on money they did not earn.....

[painkiller]

Now where are the keys to my Y2K bunker (he says, rummaging through the junk drawer)...