Market crash: are we there yet ?

[Sapperwhite]

Originally Posted by SteveSouthwood

If you go back to your post you claimed the Fed had to have pumped the market. They didn't do that yesterday - they acted this morning. If you ask me, my guess would be the market reacted yesterday because someone found out the Fed went into an emergency session. The rumor probably flew around the big boys and they acted.

Thats right. But, is a pump or a rate cut doing the same thing? They both free up money no? And yes, I would bet my ass that someone placed a little power lunch call to a buddy and let the cat out of the bag. If someone hadn't, yesterday would have kept slipping, and today would have been an even steeper uphill climb.

A pump or a rate cut, either way the Fed stepped in, the investors didn't just look at each other and say "yo, what the hell are we doing here, let's buy financials". It was an intervention, I was just wrong about the type of intervention.


Steve sez...."Probably for no better reason than it has fallen by such large amounts recently. Hysteria and herd instinct. Whole market reactions based on what investors don't know rather than what they do. The volatility is predictable. The directions are not. At least not in the short term."

So who's back tracking??? It's not ego, it's common sense.

PS, keep an eye on currencies....

[Valiente]

Originally Posted by Cruisingdad

This country is VASTLY in debt, much of it supported by foreign countries. Everyone looks to run into US currency/treasury around the world when there are problems because it is percieved as a safe haven, right? Am I wrong?

What happens when it is no longer perceived as a safe haven?

- CD

PS Just a note. I do not consider myself an alarmist or an economist. I am a realist. It just does not make sense to me.

The mistake is similar to weaning a junkie off heroin by giving him methadone.

It is still quite possible to overdose on methadone, but it has less of a stigma!

Re: "safe haven". I suppose you could phrase this as "what happens when the snake that's eating its own tail reaches a vital organ?"

Easy. The snake dies.

I am currently taking applications from U.S. border states to become Canadian provinces. Not Montana, obviously. The mix of Hollywood stars and paranoid militia types is....unsavoury.

[Cruisingdad]

Originally Posted by Valiente

The mistake is similar to weaning a junkie off heroin by giving him methadone.

It is still quite possible to overdose on methadone, but it has less of a stigma!

Re: "safe haven". I suppose you could phrase this as "what happens when the snake that's eating its own tail reaches a vital organ?"

Easy. The snake dies.

I am currently taking applications from U.S. border states to become Canadian provinces. Not Montana, obviously. The mix of Hollywood stars and paranoid militia types is....unsavoury.

Funny. You know what though, if the US market crumbles it is my strong opinion that Canada and the rest of the world will quickly follow suit. We are tied together. The same is very true in Canada.

My question is who did the rate drop really help? It settled the markets for who?

- CD

[bestfriend]

Originally Posted by Valiente

I am currently taking applications from U.S. border states to become Canadian provinces. Not Montana, obviously. The mix of Hollywood stars and paranoid militia types is....unsavoury.

We're sorry, but any transfer of lands to Canada requires the acquisition of Montana, Tennessee(with the exception of the Jack Daniels distillery), Kentucky, and Los Angeles, on your part. In return, we will take a hockey player to be named later.

[Sapperwhite]

Originally Posted by bestfriend

We're sorry, but any transfer of lands to Canada requires the acquisition of Montana, Tennessee(with the exception of the Jack Daniels distillery), Kentucky, and Los Angeles, on your part. In return, we will take a hockey player to be named later.

I'd be willing to give up a small plot of land between Maryland and Virginia in exchange for Vancouver......ah hell, just take it for free.

[bestfriend]

Originally Posted by Sapperwhite

I'd be willing to give up a small plot of land between Maryland and Virginia in exchange for Vancouver......ah hell, just take it for free.

North Virginia? I thought that was just swamp land.

[SteveSouthwood]

Originally Posted by Sapperwhite

Thats right. But, is a pump or a rate cut doing the same thing? They both free up money no?

Yes - my point was about timing. The action occurred this morning, not yesterday.

Originally Posted by Sapperwhite

And yes, I would bet my ass that someone placed a little power lunch call to a buddy and let the cat out of the bag. If someone hadn't, yesterday would have kept slipping, and today would have been an even steeper uphill climb.

Sooner or later we'd agree on something. Who knows - it could happen again.

Originally Posted by Sapperwhite

A pump or a rate cut, either way the Fed stepped in, the investors didn't just look at each other and say "yo, what the hell are we doing here, let's buy financials". It was an intervention, I was just wrong about the type of intervention.

And the timing.

Originally Posted by Sapperwhite

Steve sez...."Probably for no better reason than it has fallen by such large amounts recently. Hysteria and herd instinct. Whole market reactions based on what investors don't know rather than what they do. The volatility is predictable. The directions are not. At least not in the short term."

So who's back tracking??? It's not ego, it's common sense.

Not me - my comments still stand. My personal guess is that the majority of the movement yesterday was as a result of people betting on nothing more than the upswing in the same fashion that most of the recent downward movement has been based on people selling on the downswing. In both cases the actions were taken in the absence of any information of any real value bar the curve itself (another thing I hold no truck with is the ability to consistently predict base on the shape of the graph)

Originally Posted by Sapperwhite

PS, keep an eye on currencies....

I do - but not all. Which ones would you recommend and why?

[Sapperwhite]

Originally Posted by SteveSouthwood

I do - but not all. Which ones would you recommend and why?

I wouldn't convert my millions of ZIMs into USDs just yet. Remember, even though they propped the market up for the day, we still have major no growth housing issues, and a new lower interest rate. More dollars spent on less product = less value.

They just propped up a bunch of lenders that still are going have major issues because they won't have people to lend to, and less people to collect from as current loans are defaulted on. They are just prolonging.

[PBzeer]

One thing to remember, for all but a few loonies like in Iran and Venezuela, the global economy is just as much at risk if markets here tumble. It is in their best interests to see nothing too negative occurs here.

[Cruisingdad]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

One thing to remember, for all but a few loonies like in Iran and Venezuela, the global economy is just as much at risk if markets here tumble. It is in their best interests to see nothing too negative occurs here.

Yes, yes, yes. We are all tied together unless you do no imports, no exports, and are totally self sufficient.

- CD