Market crash: are we there yet ?

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

You went Long? Have you read nothing I typed?

Have you read nothing I've typed ?

I trade both sides, Rick. Yes, I think the market could be crashing too, and I have an approximate target of Dow 7k before I get really long, but I am sure you have seen a chart before and noticed that the market does rally sometimes even when it is trending down.

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by Freesail99

5 year lows on the S&P 500 and the dow was down at one point over 550 points. Yet the dollar is soaring, has anyone noticed this? I guess the world still trust uncle Sam, don't ask me why.

That's because everyone is buying cash.

[sailaway21]

The dollar might be soaring because it may be perceived that the US is getting it's house in order? I doubt that one but, hey, who knows. It is more likely because Europe in particular shares much of the same problems with economies already in worse shape than the US one. Falling oil prices will have an effect as well.

Did anyone note that the EU automakers are petitioning the EU for a loan similar, but larger, than that received by the American car companies? Just like in the US...to better able them to transition to building smaller cars. Gee, I thought they already built smaller cars!

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by sailaway21

The dollar might be soaring because it may be perceived that the US is getting it's house in order? I doubt that one but, hey, who knows. It is more likely because Europe in particular shares much of the same problems with economies already in worse shape than the US one. Falling oil prices will have an effect as well.

Did anyone note that the EU automakers are petitioning the EU for a loan similar, but larger, than that received by the American car companies? Just like in the US...to better able them to transition to building smaller cars. Gee, I thought they already built smaller cars!

A lot of the reason that the $us is rallying is because it is coming off of a medium term bottom. Don't forget that the $us has been kicked around a LOT for the past few years. During that time our rates were very low, and people around the world started a carry trade - more in the ¥jp than in the $us, but a lot of people did carry from the $us too. The basics of this are, borrow $us at low interest and then loan that money in a country that has a higher interest rate, such as the $au which has been paying upwards to 10% interest. A big part of the reason the $us is rallying right now, and why the ¥jp is rallying even more, is because that carry trade is unwinding, at least for now. Suddenly because the $us has rallied so much all those people who borrowed $us and loaned it out in Australia (or where ever) suddenly find that the 10% interest that are making isn't enough to cover the loss they are taking on the fx markets, so they get out of the trade and back into the $us. It's kind of like a short cover rally, sort of.

[sailaway21]

Who does this article remind you of?

EUROPE'S BLAME-AMERICA BULL - New York Post

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by sailaway21

As usual Rick plays fast and loose with the numbers and, in a remarkable parallel to his real estate career, he advocates selling when one should merely be timing their buying. Oh well..

Here's two. I'll have time later to add the other data points, but what's the difference. Even starring at the data, you'll deny it exists. In any event, you should know by now I don't pull these from thin air......

Credit crisis adds to pressures on auto dealers Posted<****** type=text/javascript>document.write(niceDate('10/6/2008 7:10 AM')); 5h 51m ago | Comment | Recommend E-mail | Save | Print |<****** type=text/javascript>

By Bree Fowler, AP Auto Writer NEW YORK — Hundreds of thousands of new cars and trucks that would have quickly made their way to people's driveways a year ago are now stacking up on dealer lots across the country, with potential buyers worried about whether they'll keep their jobs, be able to pay for gas, or qualify for a car loan. For auto dealers already suffering under the worst U.S. sales downturn in 15 years, the increasing cost of the credit they use to keep inventory in their showrooms means every Ford Focus and Jeep Grand Cherokee with a sale sticker in the window is chipping away at dealers' razor-thin profit margins every day and threatening to send more of them out of business.

at:

Credit crisis adds to pressures on auto dealers - USATODAY.com

And

Automakers post major drops in sales

Ford down 29.5%; GM holds off Toyota; Honda bucks trends

Automakers post major drops in sales - AutoWeek Magazine

Lastly

Auto sales plunge

Despite a slide in gas prices, sales fall 15.5% from a year ago for the worst August in 10 years, led by lower demand for pickups and SUVs.

Auto sales plunge - Sep. 3, 2008


These are YTD numbers compared to last year but for August. It's even worse this month. .....So...GDP grew how much??????????????????

[Rickm505]

Credit Crisis to Deepen U.S Recession, Business Economists Say

By Bob Willis

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The credit crisis that pushed money- market rates to records last week will deepen a U.S. recession and extend it into next year, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
The economy will stall in the fourth quarter, followed by 1.3 percent annualized growth in the first three months of 2009, according to the poll of 48 professional forecasters taken Sept. 8 to Sept. 18. Should the credit turmoil not ease by year end, then the economy will contract from October through March, a supplementary poll taken Oct. 1-2 showed.

``If financial conditions fail to improve quickly, near-term economic prospects could deteriorate markedly,'' Chris Varvares, NABE President-elect and the president of Macroeconomic Advisers, said in a statement. ``Still, the NABE panel expects that lower oil prices, a bottoming out in home prices and a better functioning of financial markets should enable the economy to resume trend-like growth by the second half of 2009.''

Two out of three analysts said the U.S. is now, or soon will be, in a recession, compared with 56 percent in the last survey in May. Almost half the panel thought the downturn began around the start of 2008, and the same share predicted it will last into next year or 2010, making it longer than the last two recessions.....
__________________________________________________ _

I guess I'm not alone any more. Of course these brave souls say it now...I called the recession when it happened.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

[Sapperwhite]

are we there yet?

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

You went Long? Have you read nothing I typed?

Just sold my calls at 1051 spy.

See how that works, Rick, you buy at a price like 1045 then sell them at 1051 and turn a 13.2% profit, then you go get yourself a caramel sundae at Dairy Queen with extra caramel on it.

[Rickm505]

you need steady nerves to play that game...well done