Market crash: are we there yet ?

[sailhog]

Thank you, Hyperion, for your priceless analysis. Finally, the truth comes out. CD hates America. He even hates Catalinas. Why? Because they are made in America.

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by sailhog

Thank you, Hyperion, for your priceless analysis. Finally, the truth comes out. CD hates America. He even hates Catalinas. Why? Because they are made in America.

Once again you have woefully missed the point. That was a question to CD - not an analysis.

Go back to writing expletives and let the grown-ups talk.

[sailaway21]

No, Hyper.
It is you who, once again, has missed the point. What makes the USA great has nothing to do with us taking care of the little people who can't take care of themselves. What makes the USA great is that little people, who can't take care of themselves, are able to come here and take care of themselves without government interference.

It is an amazing thing; most people have a pretty good idea of what is best for themselves. They do not really need the nanny-state government to tell them to open their umbrella in the rain. When they arrive in the US, after leaving a country which probably limited, or made for them, their every choice; they are stunned at the freedom they possess. And they usually go right to work and are wealthy in an embarassingly short period of time.

Why embarassing? Because there are coconuts out there who think that not only their rights, but their success, is something provided by the government. Rightly understood, the poor masses the Statue of Liberty calls to are masses asking a government, any government, to just get out of the way.

The US is the land of opportunity, and not just the 'U' department of the international socialist plan.

For more "grown-up" talk on the matter I'd refer you to the US' Declaration of Independence. Once you've got a really good understanding of that document, the constitution begins to make sense.

[sailaway21]

Marker closes up for August. Hmmm.

[Rickm505]

Sailway, I have to say that you have your moments. That "up" for August cost 62 billion dollars here in the US and another 200 billion Euros in market liquidity. Not to mention a Presidential Speech, and a flurry of writing new regs for FHA.

Yeah, that qualifies as ...Hmmmm....


By the way, it's a 3 day weekend..... don't you have a boat? Or are you boatless?

[sailaway21]

Gee,
Where did the 62 billion go? You'd think somebody would notice that much going missing. Certainly the market would have noticed it, you'd think. I'll stand by my post five prediction.

Nah, I gotta boat. Only one hull though. Am I running a hull deficit?

[BADG]

Originally Posted by Tynwald

>
So maybe we should think about why not one bank, not two, but the whole industry behaved like that?

To be clear about the mortgage fiasco, most traditional BANKS did NOT partake in this sub-prime shite. Mortgage brokers/resellers are the ones who put this forth and the bulk of it occured in only 3-4 years.

[Sailormann]

What makes the USA great has nothing to do with us taking care of the little people who can't take care of themselves.

Very true - noone is ever going to accuse you folks of a bad case of the warm and fuzzies

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by BADG

To be clear about the mortgage fiasco, most traditional BANKS did NOT partake in this sub-prime shite. Mortgage brokers/resellers are the ones who put this forth and the bulk of it occured in only 3-4 years.

Subprime has been with us many years. The gendra as we know it today started in 1999, with Option One, and NovaStar and ramped up during 2000-2001 when about 20 large companies jumped in. It then went full strength until early 2006 and has been declining ever since. In it's last giration, it began with Delta funding around 1997 with their 125% mortgages. Now... Traditional Banks? Let's see, the largest in the country is Bank America... Then Chase (JP Morgan), Wachovia and I believe Citibank, with Wells Fargo running a close fourth. All of which offered some variation of these products. Some through normal originating channels and others through subsidiaries.

My friend, It would appear that you are not completely accurate on both counts but it's not surprising as much that's been written is protecting the market. As for me, I spent many years on the Dark side as a Broker, and then moved to the wholesale side of a National Lender some years ago, so I live and breath this stuff 9-7 every day. Some of my best friends work for the banks I mentioned. You should do some more reading... article you read was incomplete. And while you are doing this reading, please tell Sailaway how much liquidity the Fed has pumped into the banking system in the last 3 weeks, and what they are accepting as collateral (you'll be surprised... no, make that shocked) then add to that how much the European Central bank has pumped in ( in dollars) to keep banks afloat who invested in good old USA AAA grade securities.

Sailaway, check Bloomberg or CNBC for your answer, or maybe BagD will let you know when he finishes his reading, as usual, you failed to do your homework.

And if you do have a boat, what the heck is it?? A 12 foot sailing dinghy which goes in the water once a year whether it needs to or not? Or is it possible that you're the proud owner of one of those Dock Queens. Permantly listing 20 degrees and no one at the marina knows you... I never hear you speak about repairs or maintenence... then again the boat's probably in your garage and wired to your keyboard.

A wonderful day on the boat today and God willing another tomorrow..

[chris_gee]

The Economist has a reasonable paper focussing primarily on the second of three scenarios. http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/25828...he%20rocks.pdf
• Scenario 1. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s central forecast, to which we attach a probability of 60%, sees the impact being contained by timely monetary policy action, with only a modest effect on the global economy.

• Scenario 2. Our main risk scenario, with a 30% probability, envisages the US falling into recession, with substantial fallout in the rest of the world.

• Scenario 3. Should the US enter recession, another, darker scenario arises: that corrective action fails, and severe economic repercussions cascade from the US into the world economy with devastating effect. We attach only a 10% probability to this outcome, but the potential impact is so severe that it warrants careful consideration.
While it is possible the first will prevail it seems to me stagflation is not unlikely, as Japan attempts to maintain exports though a low yen, USA attempts to keep things rolling, and China already has around 5% inflation in food and wages, and all major countries are expanding their money supply by around 12%.