Market crash: are we there yet ?

[hellosailor]

Chris, if the Economist has any competency in economics, why would they focus the most on their 30% probability, when they have a 60% probability as well?

One an only assume that either they think their predictive skills may be grossly in error, or because they want to sell papers. I suspect the latter.

[chris_gee]

Well I guess it might possibly be something related to risk and consequences, in the same way as one might take account of the risk of running aground, and the risk of sinking both being less than neither occurring.
I have no desire to defend economists or their analysis. I doubt that the issues can simply be viewed as economic alone rather than heavily influenced by the political.

[sailaway21]

I suspect that Stevesouthwood, and Ben Stein, have it right-the vast majority of mortgage payments are being made, the industry is re-evaluating itself, the Fed is providing a loan to bridge liquidity issues, and things will move along much as they are. With the rest of the economy doing as well as it is it is hard to see this as a crisis.

[Rickm505]

Sailaway,
I'm all done trying to 'learn you anything', as you virtually sit there and claim to know well.... everything. The problem is that you are usually wrong. And this time is no exception.

Instead of me telling you. Let's have the experts take a stab at it. This way, when you tell 'everyone' that all these experts are wrong, 'everyone' will have a front row seat.

First a very simple article which is aimed at the literary challenged which calmly explains why the subprime mess has already spread to the economy and is now spreading faster.

Real estate's slowdown trickles through local economy
http://www.ocregister.com/news/assoc...using-mortgage

Next, a fair critique of the wonderful Bush FHA speech on Friday. A CNBC reporter, called industry experts to check the facts in Bush's speech. Turned out the facts...all of them... were made up. When she called the Whitehouse to challenge, they agreed with her. I am so sick of imoral presidents. This one couldn't tell the truth if he tried. Anyway.. it's all righ here:

White House Has It all WRONG On Subprime
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20533556

I admit this one is slightly technical. The gist is that all credit card companies are experiencing major defaults. I'm trying to keep it simple Sailaway, so that even you finally get it.. so I apologize that you may need a dictionary for this one:

A Bird's-Eye View of the Credit Conundrum
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/.../index/a/13898

this one has Standard % Poor predicting doom and gloom. The weird thing about this article is that the data, well is 'dated'. The situations is actually much worse now.

US housing: bad and getting worse
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/34216/...ing-worse.html

And finally. Our friends at Citibank have their computers working overtime trying to figure out what happens next. Talk about doomsday, these guys are predicting the equivalent of a Nuclear blast in financial markets.

Citi Research Discusses a Dow Crash Scenario
http://buttonwood1792.blogspot.com/2...dow-crash.html

So, let's see... FHA, Citibank, Standard & Poor, CNBC and many more are all saying we are in big trouble. But because Sailaway said "things will move along much as they are" none of us should worry. Oh that's right, Sailaway is quoting an ACTOR.

Trust me, I live in this stuff. You had better wake up and smell the crapola, because things are not going to get better real soon. Oh...never mind, your credibility is shot anyway.

[therapy23]

Who is Jim Kingsland?

[Rickm505]

A blog written by veteran financial Journalist Jim Kingsland he used to be with Bloomberg, CNBC and FNN. Google him, or rather google "The Kingsland Report" he's cool. If Jim says it... you can believe him. His bonafides are in order.

Doesn't anyone read these days?

[SteveSouthwood]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

Trust me, I live in this stuff. You had better wake up and smell the crapola, because things are not going to get better real soon. Oh...never mind, your credibility is shot anyway.

Rick - You need to chill. Since when has being in the industry given you or anyone the right to claim they have a superior right to say who is right and who is wrong. This is a bit like saying - "Trust me - I am in the boating industry so I know what I am saying".

Wake up Rick. The financial industry and the boating industry are full of experts with different opinions. The only ability you are demonstrating to date is the knack of googling the internet to find articles which in your mind support your polarized views. Anyone can do this to support practically any line of argument these days.

That you resort to the "trust me" and insulting members speaks of personal desperation.

A final point. You seem to be the only one around here claiming any credentials. Yet your arguments are cheap, second hand at best and have no balance. Do you have any idea how you look when you go off slamming others credibility? Who's credibility do you think really gets questioned?

[Rickm505]

I normally wouldn't respond to a post like this, as I certainly don't need your validation. My PM's and emails are running 20 to zero ( no...let's be fair and and count yours as a negative) for supportive. So I know how my posts are being received and how I'm being perceived.

Incidently, that information would seem to be important to you. I would post regardless. And I don't "claim" anything. I make my living in this industry... period.

Now, who the hell are you to question me? Go do your own homework and try to post contadicting data. I'm find it amusing that folks read one 4 inch article and suddenly believe they are experts.

While we are on the subject, if anyone on here wants to shill a pundit. Make sure it's a guy who gets more than 1 minute a month of TV time. I would pick Jim Cramer of CNBC. He almost single handedly forced the Fed to open the discount window. That's respect and power. There are few dramatic moments in financial programming, this is one of them, take a minute and watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOVXh4xM-Ww

One thing for sure, time always wins, and decides who spoke truth or not. I'm more concerned about our country's financial health, than what one poster thinks of me on here.

[PBzeer]

Simply stated, it is in the best interest of all the "power brokers", be they fed, or civilian, that things keep going on as they have. Any collateral damage to the "small fry", is acceptable to contain any of the "big boy's" miscalculations. And it's been that way since one person had more than another. And will continue to be that way.

[Rickm505]

that's right