Market crash: are we there yet ?

[cardiacpaul]

rick, does your being a mortgage broker have any impact on your statements?

I'm sorry that you no longer have multiple revenue streams consisting of junk money lent to people that had no business enetring into the home buying process. Lo-doc, no-doc, ARM's, even loans to illegal aliens were/are part of the problem. I have no idea what these folks were thinking when they signed on the dotted line, must have looked like a great deal then. I'm sure they saw the rising home values and decided to catch the wave. Sometimes, waves break.

Hell, I got preapproved for a 150k note on my paltry income, owing a little over 300k in medical bills that will never be paid. I said, you people don't know me very well do you, and told them no.

[uspirate]

Originally Posted by cardiacpaul

rick, does your being a mortgage broker have any impact on your statements?

I'm sorry that you no longer have multiple revenue streams consisting of junk money lent to people that had no business entring into the home buying process. Lo-doc, no-doc, ARM's, even loans to illegal aliens were/are part of the problem. I have no idea what these folks were thinking when they signed on the dotted line, must have looked like a great deal then.

Hell, I got preapproved for a 150k note on my paltry income, owing a little over 300k in medical bills that will never be paid. I said, you people don't know me very well do you, and told them no.

Dayaaaaam paul, let me get you a beer and a shot!

[Rickm505]

Although the Fed has stated that they will not protect banks that have made poor decisions, I think the Fed already made a decision. In an earlier post I encouraged people to learn the new terms of the recently opened discount window. In order for the Fed to provide liquidity, they need collateral in return. Traditionally this has been Treasuries or corporate bonds. Also, traditionally the loans were extremely short term. In crisis mode, they have extended the terms to 30 days and there's a consistant rumor that these loans will automatically be rolled over at that time. If they don't roll them, nothing is 'fixed'. If they do, the Fed is now in the Mortgage Security business because the collateral for the loans are the very same MBS that no one will touch.

Without this liquidity 60% of the market collapses. The real answer is to somehow restore the trust of MBS. To this end my industry has tightned guidelines so tight that the extra liquidity may not even be needed. We are now contracting all on our own.

The result, we're in trouble either way. There are questions that arise as we return to normalized lending guidelines. Who's going to buy all these completed homes? Who's going to employ the construction workers?

So far, there are no answers. When Jim Cramer called this Armageddon in that dramatic video. He wasn't talking about his 'buddies'.

[Rickm505]

Paul, I'm not a broker, nor a L/O. However, I do make my living in this field. Second, I believe your question is irrelevant as other than having the knowledge of this crisis, my job has no bearing on the subject. Does yours?

Which part of my post wasn't clear?

[uspirate]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

Who's going to buy all these completed homes? Who's going to employ the construction workers?

Not I said the king of fools...uuhh i mean beers. they can kiss my bootay! I haven't made any major consumer purchases since Feb 05 and will continue to do so. I saw this crap coming over 3 years ago, told everyone i knew and they friggen laughed at me. we sold our crib 1 1/2 years ago and profited $210k off of a $18k investment, they didnt want to sell when the market was at a peak and now they will have to take a loss on theirs to sell. who's laughing now MOFO's

Edit: i gotta give my pop credit for telling me to sell when i did...love you dad!

[Rickm505]

I sold my investment properties in 2005. They were a terrific investment. I sure hope the IRS doesn't read this thread as you posted real numbers.

[sailhog]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

I sold my investment properties in 2005. They were a terrific investment. I sure hope the IRS doesn't read this thread as you posted real numbers.

The feds don't tax capital gains for your house if it's you're primary residence, do they?

[Rickm505]

Only if you've been in it less than 2 years

[cardiacpaul]

Rick, that you say that you're not abroker or loan officer is parsing, imho, according to the main index page of the website were your sailing stuff is located, it says...

We Live here! -Our company is a Florida Mortgage Company and our loan officers know our market.
"We have the Loan Products. - From Option ARMS and "A" Paper, to products for people with imperfect credit. Speaking of which, when you consider the benefits of home ownership or bad credit repair, a mortgage is the smart next step towards reaching your financial goals."The short term obstacles of a bad credit mortgage are well worth the risks. You won't be throwing money away on rent, as on time mortgage payments are the fastest way towards credit repair, and you'll truly be on your way to improving your financial situation through smarter investment of your money. We are expert at getting these loans done."


Even the metatags (keywords) on the site are ="mortgage, refinance, 100% LTV, purchase, real estate, home, buyer, investor, down payment, cash, cash out, investor, investment, property, no points, rate, Florida, east Florida, central Florida, south Florida, Orlando, Melbourne, Cocoa, Merritt, Island, Palm Bay, Rockledge, Satellite Beach, Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, Titusville, Mims, Melbourne Beach, Sebastian, Vero Beach, Ft. Pierce, Fort Pierce, Port St. Lucie, Stuart, Jensen Beach, West Palm Beach" />
"

So, unless I'm making too many gross assumptions about glomming onto someone elses ".biz" domain & home page... I'd say that you, a loved one, a friend, family member, business partner HAS a big dog in this hunt.

Of course, I could be talking outta my azz, who knows, eh?

As far as I'm concerned if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck... its well, you know.

The old man had a saying.
"Hogs get fat but pigs get eaten." Stop your squealing.

The sky isn't falling and not every gray cloud in the sky is the fault of a political figure.

now, as for "my job has no bearing on the subject. Does yours?"

I'm on a fixed income. I supplement that with a little business that most people here know about.

[cardiacpaul]

oh, yea, I forgot...
"If they do, the Fed is now in the Mortgage Security business because the collateral for the loans are the very same MBS that no one will touch."

I thought they've been in the biz for a couple of years now anyway. VA, FHA, to a lesser extent, the "Rural Economic and Community Development " (Farmers Home administration)