Buy gold and silver. The real thing. Take possession. Do not buy the GLD or SLV ETFs unless you like the risk attendant to playing "Old Maid" with a deck that contains mostly Old Maid cards.
I prefer silver, which only now is making a strong upward move to match gold, which itself is about to set repetitive all-time highs. Silver will retake ground that it already covered two years ago, then match and, likely, outpace gold in setting new highs.
Can't you just feel the precious-metals market scanning the horizon and trembling, about to plunge in for a long, long swim?
Get out of dollar-denominated assets. Buy and hold the physical metal for the long haul. There now has been a complete separation of the prices of physical precious metals and the paper gambling markers reported by COMEX.
Physical gold and silver are entering their Black Market days, from which it will be many years before they emerge. Go on line to our most prominent Black market - eBay - and price out completed sales of bullion coins and bars. Premiums are being charged by the few dealers who actually have any stock available for sale. Keep that in mind when you get depressed by the reported spot prices.
Spot prices are for phony paper silver and gold, not the real thing. The real thing has kept its value much better than you might think and it will do far better in the months and years to come.
Sure it is tough to shell out big money today for a one-ounce silver Eagle when silver's spot price is much lower. But that simply reflects the difference in real value. The spread will only get larger, as our government keeps "injecting liquidity" into the banking system. In the not-too-distant future, paper metal will be worth no more than the paper upon which it is printed - less than toilet paper, in fact, as in today's Zimbabwe.
I agree with much of what you are saying, but on the topic of premiums, the spreads have narrowed quite a bit on physical. Months ago it is true you could not find physical anywhere, none that wasn't promised, and all physical either had a huge premium or had a ship date well out into the future. Investors were scrambling for real metal. Now that the various mints have had a chance to get production online and the price has bounced up a little and enticed sellers into the market, metal is easier to find.
I still believe there will be a better time to buy precious metals in the relatively near future. PM at the moment is up a little in price, but then so are the equity markets, bonds, foreign currencies, and just about everything else, obviously all related to movement in the price of $us. If $us rallies and the deflation gets worse I believe we will have one more big chance to buy precious metals at good prices compared to where they are at now. That's not to say I don't hold PM, but for myself as a true forex all-in type of trade, I think it's a little early. Give all the people who are losing their jobs and having trouble with their mortgages a chance to sell all their old gold chains and such for cash, that is the kind of thing driving the markets right now, liquidation of assets to increase cash positions - i.e. deflation.
In June 2008 before all of this happened we were discussing a lot of this and talking about a rally in cash money, and I think we will probably see more of that before we see the end. Somewhere there is a post I made about gold vs. $us cash during deflation, I will look for it when I get the chance, I don't have time to look right now - but this post is from about June 08 when oil and the other commodities were topping, before we had $us buying and before the deflation really started to kick in (and before the equity markets tanked).
Quote:
Originally Posted by wind_magic
Commodities are just the latest in speculative bubbles.
Nasdaq, housing, commodities ...
Not to worry, soon there is going to be another speculative bubble ... in CASH.
Everyone is going to want to own cash, it'll be the latest rage. They're going to sell stocks to get it, they'll sell houses at a loss to get it, companies are going to lay employees off to get it, reduce inventories, stop placing orders for capital equipment, stop giving their kids an allowance, stop paying their cell phone bills, yes and even sell oil futures and other commodities .... all in an effort to get CASH MONEY.
The bear market in cash money has gone on long enough - low to negative savings rates, historic levels of stock market participation, home equity loans as far as the eye can see, debt for extravagant purchases to keep up with the Jones, etc, etc ... that bear market in cash can't last forever, I think the bottom is just about here. Maybe it's time to trade some stuff in to buy some CASH! Maybe it's time to buy some cash before everyone else gets the same idea and the price gets too high!
I remain a bull on cash money.
HURRAY FOR CASH!!!!!
Cash is bubblicious!
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What are you pretending not to know ?
Can't help but wonder what you'll do Rick, when Obama's tax policies kick in (especially his new "fairness tax" on multi-nationals) and they start abandoning their US operations for more tax friendly locales. Especially those who make more profits overseas than in the US.
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John
Ontario 32 - Aria
Free, is the heart, that lives not, in fear.
Full, is the spirit, that thinks not, of falling.
True, is the soul, that hesitates not, to give.
Alive, is the one, that believes, in love. JCP
It could be just me, but the Sailnet Server seems to be getting slower and slower. Is it on it's last legs?
Super slow....enough to drive people away....that is, if the grumps and lynch mobs didn't already do that......
But, seriously, they need a dedicated fast server plus some php and mysql tune-ups.
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"I do not conceive we can exist long as a nation without having lodged somewhere a power which will pervade the whole Union in as energetic a manner as the authority of the state governments extends over the individual states"
-George Washington
SN is runnning very slow. However, it is because they just installed brand new servers. It appears there are some glitches with the new server that they are trying to work out.
Brian
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Sailnet Adminstrator & Moderator (at large soon)!!
Good thing we have such paragons as yourself craig, or I don't know what we'd do. (Be careful of the wet floor)
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John
Ontario 32 - Aria
Free, is the heart, that lives not, in fear.
Full, is the spirit, that thinks not, of falling.
True, is the soul, that hesitates not, to give.
Alive, is the one, that believes, in love. JCP
SN is runnning very slow. However, it is because they just installed brand new servers. It appears there are some glitches with the new server that they are trying to work out.
Brian
Looks like they went from Windows to Linux - a good move! Once they get that mysql/php tuned up, it should be fast...like it is right now!
Based on their traffic graphs, a dedicated server (which hopefully they have) should be able to handle 2 to 3x the traffic (or more) which they are getting now.
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"I do not conceive we can exist long as a nation without having lodged somewhere a power which will pervade the whole Union in as energetic a manner as the authority of the state governments extends over the individual states"
-George Washington
What a confusing article. It starts with Spector"s defection and ends with this:
"And so, we are beginning to feel afraid—very afraid. We believe America needs to be more competitive than ever to get out of this recession."
America needs to be more competitive? How? Family wages are sinking like a stone over the last decade, we have 10% unemployment in 100 cities and this guy is still blaming unions? Did he time just warp in from the 1970's?
The reason America is out of the manufacturing business is because of monetary and trade policies, not because they are paying Americans too much.
Of course Corporate America points out that wages are lower in Vietnam and Thailand and China. Yes, that's very true, but is that what they plan on turning America into? Would any of us want to live here if they did?
This article is written by a clueless individual and I'm surprised Business Week printed it.
Or could it be that Boss Limbaugh called them too?
You would have to be clueless not to get the point he's making. It isn't anti-union, it's talking about more flexibility on the work floor and other daily type issues, not contracts.
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John
Ontario 32 - Aria
Free, is the heart, that lives not, in fear.
Full, is the spirit, that thinks not, of falling.
True, is the soul, that hesitates not, to give.
Alive, is the one, that believes, in love. JCP
Hey, all those executives who got tens of millions of dollars (or hundreds in some cases) turned out not to have actually added anything at all to the net worth of their companies. Maybe the companies would be more competitive if they didnt pay executives all that money and still had it on their balance sheets.
Yep sck, if we'd only get rid of all those greedy, evil executives, we could have a workers paradise.
What that has to do with what they said in the article, escapes me at the moment. Though no doubt, it's relevant to the point they made ..... somehow.
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John
Ontario 32 - Aria
Free, is the heart, that lives not, in fear.
Full, is the spirit, that thinks not, of falling.
True, is the soul, that hesitates not, to give.
Alive, is the one, that believes, in love. JCP
Maybe it's time to trade some stuff in to buy some CASH! Maybe it's time to buy some cash before everyone else gets the same idea and the price gets too high! 
