Market crash: are we there yet ?

[sailhog]

Originally Posted by sailaway21

I must admit though, I really enjoyed the part where he was explaining how China and Iran were going to put the kibosh on the world's largest economy. China really wants to flex it's economic muscle. You betcha. Fortunately there are probably Chinese who've already considered the implications of having no one to sell their goods to. They didn't sleep through econ. 101.

I had this same thought when reading Rick's post. Why would the Saudis and the Chinese want to see our economy fail when that would spell their own economic demise? We are, after all, their biggest customer.

Rick, you talk as though you're an expert but you think like my mother -- the sky is always falling, and there are these bad people out there with squinty eyes ready to do us in. When the Dow is up, you're on vacation in Italy. When it's down, you show up to tell us how silly Sway is. You, sir, are kooky.
Sailhog

[Rickm505]

We are probably 25% of China's business. Asia and Europe are larger. Why would they want to wreck us?

They wouldn't.

On the other hand, the next time China says that they want Taiwan, er...we will act differently than we have in the past when we've leaped to Taiwan's defense. We will have no choice.

As far as the Saudis are concerned. I really don't know, but I feel very uncomfortable about it.

I was just on vacation.. No computers... no emails....Given recent events I reviewed this thread when I returned.

Last comment.... sometimes the sky really is falling.

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by sailaway21

Exxon/Mobil, and if you're going to criticize spelling you might get better at it yourself, financed both Dem's and Republicans. They financed both Bush and his French opponent. You coul look it up.

Apologies on the spelling. As far as Exxon/Mobil contributions... the type of money involved isn't in any public record.

I was serious about needing another thread regarding remedies to our ailing economy. I just read that Bush wants yet another tax cut...

Oh yeah, that's really going to fix things.

[cardiacpaul]

rick, you just don't get it... you are familiar with supply and demand aren't you? once again, here are the figures.

Year Single-Family Multifamily Total
2006 1,465,400 335,500 1,800,900

thats one million, four hundred and sixty five thousand

2005 1,715,800 352,500 2,068,300
one million seven hundred and fifteen thousand

2004 1,610,500 345,300 1,955,800
I'm bored...

2003 1,499,000 348,700 1,847,700
2002 1,358,600 346,400 1,704,900
2001 1,273,300 329,400 1,602,700
2000 1,230,900 337,800 1,568,700
1999 1,302,400 338,500 1,640.900
1998 1,271,400 345,500 1,616,900
1997 1,133,700 340,300 1,474,000
1996 1,160,900 316,100 1,476,800
1995 1,076,200 277,900 1,354,100

for almost ten years we had almost 10% growth every year!!!! Now I'm not the brightest bunny in the forest, but population growth has not kept pace with the number of housing starts. (I suppose all those housing starts were bushs fault too, same with the no doc loans, bush said, yup dammit, you don't need to verify income at all, stated income is good enough. Wasn't that on C-Span? )
Face it Ricky, you don't have any more ess-plainin' to do, the sky isn't falling, just your little corner of the boom went bust. Deal with it. Windy season is coming up, with all of the existing homes sitting, I think roofing materials will be real big this year.

I had to bite the big one when telecom was far over valued and companies were laying fiber like it was pasta, routers with COG's of 800.00 were selling for 125k.
Switching platforms with OC192 cap were popping up like poplar saplings... one day, somebody finally said... Umm, fellas, we got enough capacity to download porn to every desktop in america at 10MBs. That was it, bubble over. Good times, gone bad. Shite happens. I count the stock options I got like TP. The ones I did cash in, I was grateful. I didn't blame Reagan, Clinton, or deregulation.
Ok, I blamed Bill Gates, the rat bastard.

The 14 percent decrease to an annual rate of 1.006 million, the lowest since 1991, followed a 1.173 million pace the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. For all of 2007, starts were down 25 percent, the biggest decline since 1980, to 1.354 million.
sniff, sniff, I'm bawlin' my eyes out. Centex tripled in size, Pulte doubled... More white good sold than anytime before. Kohler almost doubled sales from 2002-2003, almost doubled again 2003-2004, doubled again from 2005-2006... why? lots of new faucets (and other things) Carrier residential, Rheem, and Trane/IR/AS all had record DECADES. Funny they dont' mention that we had ten years of growth that outpaced the post WWII boom. Again, Shite happens.

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by xort

Wages are not down, they are up in 2007.

Real income is different than just wages. It takes inflation into account. And you know this, so why post a ridiculous statement like this?

___________________________________________

New inflation data explain middle-class squeeze

By Kevin G. Hall |

WASHINGTON January 16, 2008 McClatchy Newspapers

New data from the Labor Department confirm what most middle-class Americans already know: Inflation is squeezing them.

As consumer prices rose by 4.1 percent last year, the highest rate since 1990, the prices of basic essentials such as food, gasoline and health insurance climbed far more steeply, explaining why so many Americans are telling pollsters that the economy is their chief concern.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the price of food and beverages rose 4.8 percent. At the same time, real weekly earnings failed to keep pace, rising 0.9 percent for the year. In the simplest of terms, a dollar earned bought less.............

__________________________________________

This is the "official inflation number" It does not include minor items like...Energy costs ..... Food costs..... housing costs...among other minor ommissions. Real inflation was probably closer to 10% last year. Sure wages went up.....

errrrr....darn republicans....

[cardiacpaul]

what I find mildly interesting is when we stomp out his fire with the facts, he just changes arguements. (but blames the same people)

"housing costs"
did sombodys ARM go up a couple of points? Hmmm?

Let's look at a three-year ARM on a $200,000 mortgage. Taken out in 2003 at a rate of four percent, the monthly payment was $955. Now, the rate could jump as high as 7.6 percent, boosting the payment to $1,375, a 44 percent increase.

The percentage of loans resetting with negative home equity is expected to leap from 12.9 percent in 2007 to 24.4 percent in 2008. That’s when some of the most frequently used 2/28 mortgages, which called for two years of low payments and 28 years of higher payments, and 3/27 mortgages, which called for three years of low payments and 27 years of higher payments, are scheduled to reset.

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by cardiacpaul

Let's look at a three-year ARM on a $200,000 mortgage. Taken out in 2003 at a rate of four percent, the monthly payment was $955. Now, the rate could jump as high as 7.6 percent, boosting the payment to $1,375, a 44 percent increase.

Stomp out my fire? Well let's see. The problem as I see it, is you just don't read what I type here. For example:

I posted that the Fed said we are in a down turn. I posted the article. But off course, you know more than they do. Brilliantly done, although without any facts at all.

I posted that the Dow would hit 12,000 some time ago. As you look at the numbers you must know nore than I do as you're doing the New Math?

I posted that workers earn less today than they did a year ago.... I posted the article written by the US Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the past I've actually posted video lectures explaining how this is so. And I did it in this very same thread. Once again you have successfully debunked government information... although once again I don't recall seeing any of your facts.

I've posted the USA middle class is disappearing. All I recieved from you is a diatribe. No facts, but it's certainly been entertaining.

Lastly mortgages. Mortgages are certainly defaulting because of ARM resets. Unfortunately, these days as much of Alt-A paper is defaulting as subprime. You must have missed the memo. Actually, I can blame the news programs as this issue is technical and they aren't known for going into details. they just lump them all together.

You might be surprised to learn that record levels of pure as the driven snow "A paper" loans are defaulting. I'm not surprised, but I know you will be. This is the reason Washington Mutual (a S/L) is about ready to bite the big one.

As for your really big point. Please get your calculator out and subtract the numbers for your worst case scenario you wrote above here. The difference is what? $420.00. This is your explanation? 1 million homes are being forclosed on because of 400 bucks a month? How silly is that? Why all good republicans just know they will do away with Social Security, right? All these good citizens are busily socking all their cash away every month in order to retire, right? 400 bucks is nothing. Petty cash....

If 400 bucks a month causes people to lose their homes what does that tell you about the average family's monthly income these days? From what you just typed we are in worse shape than I thought. It's Deplorable.The sky is in fact falling. Thank you as you just made my whole case.

And while we are on the topic of debunking, I am anxiously waiting your response.

One more thing. May I ask who 'we' is? My facts are solid and my 'fire' is burning strong... You may need the help.

[cardiacpaul]

Whiner.

i'm sorry that you think a 44% increase in a house payment is okey dokey, after all, you helped get these poor slobs to hang the paper.

I'm sorry that you've ate at the table of sour grapes.

I'm sorry for the way things are in China,

I'm sorry for the things I didn't say... (John Denver, RIP)

I'm sorry we had over ten years of solid growth.

I'm sorry, that must be bushs fault.

I'm sorry that the parade of "we have to have it all right now" is turning to forclosures.

I'm sorry that McMansions @ 250k with 2500.00 down seemed like a great idea at the time.

Heres why I'm not all that sorry for these twits.
Down the street, a Home... built 2006, 4br, 3 bath, 3400sqft.
sold @ 246k,... 176k 30 yr 2/28 first, 6.25%
At closing a 67k second mort. @ 3/27 7.5% mort. Down payment?
a little over 2500 plus points fees and other costs.

today 28 months after closing, its empty, the owners? skated. Their combined income? 45k per year. Somebody thought they were a great risk for this house.
bank listed @ 209,500

I'm sorry that some people got rich during those ten years.

I'm sorry that you were one of them.
I'm sorry that you're bitching about that now.
People eat, horses eat, pigs... get eaten.

More than anything else, I'm sorry that you have to blame someone else.

Your sky is falling, I'm doing ok. Thanks for asking.
Then again, I'm just living on the government dole. I got my 2.4% COLA this month, mama's gunna git a new pair of shoes.

Bury me when I'm gone in Forest Lawn

[artbyjody]

Was that a John Denver song? I just never remembered grapes being part of the lyrics...but then again I forgot the Chicken Little tagline "the sky is falling" too.. damn amnesia...

[Joel73]

point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point. point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.point. counter point.

ugh. Does anyone really listen to the other anymore? communication seems to be a joke these days.