Market crash: are we there yet ?

[sailaway21]

You're right, Chris. The question is, would it have been the right policy? Aside from the issue of all the money going to the government (no small issue) it makes no allowance for the fact that the US, and it's economy, is fundamentally different than Europe's. There's no such thing as a long-haul trucker in Europe. If you're willing to scrap the entire US transportation and shipping system as we presently know it, the idea makes sense. If you're willing to pay comensurately higher costs for virtually everything you consume, on top of a much higher gas tax, the idea makes sense as well.

I'll grant you, it is a policy, which makes our political hodge-podge of efforts seem lame. Funny thing about it all is that the popular perception is that there is an oil shortage. There's no shortage of oil. There's just increased demand and an unwillingness to drill for the oil that's there. Of course, there's also an unwillingness to use proven technology to provide cheap electricity, to reduce the demand for oil, either. The only nukes on the boards are intended to go on sites where existing plants already are but need replacing. It's not entirely clear they'll be permitted even there!

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by camaraderie

Rick...I have not chimed in much here as I don't have any relevant expertise but I have been following the discussion with interest. Your statement that fuel oil and gas did not figure into CPI struck me as rather incredible if true so I looked it up:
What goods and services does the CPI cover?Can you advise why you are stating that it is not included?

Once again, you argue the obvious...


In whose numbers do you trust?
CNBC Reports CPI Rigged, New Index Shows Inflation Nearly Double
By Craig R. Smith

http://www.swissamerica.com/article....505160900f.txt
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Stamp Price Index reveals "real world" inflation
Here's another way to judge the true rate of inflation using the U.S. Postal Service stamp price statistics. According to the government, the cost of a postage stamp reflects only true cost-of-living increases, since the USPS is not-for-profit, right?
USAToday reports, "The price for a first-class stamp jumped by 517 percent between 1970 to 2004, compared to the official CPI inflation gauge which has only registered a 293 percent increase." That means in 1970 a $10,000 car now costs $51,700, instead of $29,300. That's a whopping 76 percent discrepancy! If we use the price of a postage stamp index as a "real world" inflation gauge, we've had substantially rising inflation during a time the government has reported that inflation is almost nil. And in 2005, the U.S. Postal Service is proposing another increase in the price of a first-class stamp from 37 cents to 39 cents � a 5.4 percent rate increase.

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CPI's Lie on Household Inflation Doesn't Wash: John F. Wasik

Commentary by John F. Wasik



Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. consumer price index continues to be a testament to the art of economic spin.
Since wages, Social Security cost-of-living increases and some agency budgets are tied to it, the government has a vested interest in keeping it as low as possible.
Yet your real cost of living -- what you keep after taxes, medical bills, college expenses and other household costs -- is probably much higher than the 2 percent annual rate the government reported in July, showing a slight decline. ........

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a2SUCQ3Bslk0


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I could go on and on and on. What good would it do? This group ignores reality and tries to convince everyone of their own version of reality.

Come to think of it, isn't that a definition of insanity??

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

I could go on and on and on. What good would it do? This group ignores reality and tries to convince everyone of their own version of reality.

Come to think of it, isn't that a definition of insanity??

No, that's doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

I agree with you Rick, as I said much earlier in this thread, that the CPI numbers contain quite a lot of fantasy.

[artbyjody]

One can make the CPI index , inflation etc work for any metric of measurement you like...my personal favorite is by beer:

Used to be sold by can - depression
comes in a 4 pack - recession
comes in 6 pack - oil scare
comes in a 12 pack - tech bubble bust
comes in a 18 pack - housing bubble bust
comes in a 24 pack - comes with recession...

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by wind_magic

No, that's doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

I agree with you Rick, as I said much earlier in this thread, that the CPI numbers contain quite a lot of fantasy.

Then why do self professed "smart folks" on this thread continuously bail out the sinking republican ship? By any measure this country has taken a major step back in eight years of a Bush Whitehouse.

I remember the old Ronald Reagan slogan "Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?"

Hell no we aren't .........

I just had a look at DOW futures and it looks like the market will open tomorrow down almost another 400 points. Now there's a resounding vote of confidence in a "solid economy" and republican management.

Then again by allowing myself to be baited by these tireless has beens, I'm just doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

[hellosailor]

""The price for a first-class stamp jumped by"
A valid comparison ONLY if the price of first-class stamps was not subsidized, or is not subsidizing, other classes of mail, or if the USPS itself was not subsidized all through those years. I don't know the answer to that--but do know the USPS pricing for postage includes allowances for things like losing money on every run to Alaska and Hawaii. It is not a simple for-profit business, and first-class postage rates are only a disproportianate piece of the picture.
On the other hand, the price of "pizza and a Coke" accurately reflects the price of lunch, and what the pizza ship is paying for all expenses, including a tithe to the local mob.

[wind_magic]

U.S. Markets are closed today, but other indices around the world are taking a beating.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080121/world_markets.html

[sailhog]

Nothing like the prospect of a looming crisis to quicken the pulse! VERY exciting!

[camaraderie]

Rick... I asked a specific question.
You quoted:
[quote=sailaway21]Inflation is rising as evidenced by the CPI precisely because gas and fuel oil are included in the CPI.[/quote

Wrong they are not included. I't simply not possible you are this ignorant.

I asked for info to back up your statement after I gave you a citation that FUEL and GAS is included in the CPI. Instead you came back with a rant against republicans and two articles that said there are problems with the CPI....neither of which said fuel/gas was not included.
I remember my EC101 professor back in the 60's ranting that the CPI was unfair and pointing out all the ways people were getting screwed by it. There will ALWAYS be criticisms of the CPI which is necessarily a compromise. I have NO sympathy for Bush/Congress economic policy as the spending and borrowing has been out of control. But when you post fiction and accuse others of being ignorant...then can't back up your claim...you may count on others to de-value your opinions.

[Rickm505]

Those who own stocks better dump them right now.

FUTURES

	VALUE	CHANGE	% CHANGE
Dow	11,592.00	-514.00	-4.25

That's right, the Dow will open tomorrow down over 500 points

Doomsday on Wall street has arrived


As for the CPI .. Sorry Cam, it was a typo.... "core inflation" doesn't include fuel costs . As for my actual point ??????? Never mind the nitpicking.....The point of that post is that CPI is meaningless. When both CNBC and Bloomberg, two of the stallworth wall street rah rah mags print articles debunking the CPI myth, people pay attention.


I love this one: Today from "Seeking Alpha.com"

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Just a brief reminder: there have been numerous idiots insisting that the consumer was just fine, and this holiday season was free from problems.




As it turns out, that view is, um, slightly off:

"The retail industry appears to be skidding toward its first big wreck in 17 years.

Chains are slamming the brakes on store openings, cutting back on inventory and girding for leaner times as consumer spending chills. The speed with which sales slowed during the holidays caught even cautious retailers off-guard, prompting a flurry of profit warnings.

And while data on December consumer spending won't be released until the end of the month, plummeting sales suggest consumers are snapping shut their pocketbooks."

Please note who these data-free, reality-challenged, know-nothing money-losing pinheads are. You'll see them spouting the same ******** next cycle, too. How wrong do you have to be before you get banned from TV?


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Those are his words, not mine, but they do sound familar (smile)?