Market crash: are we there yet ?

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by sailaway21

Fot those readers still hoping to catch wisdom from this thread, I'd offer the following observation. Never trust a man with two hulls on the same boat.

The George Will piece is ridiculous. To claim that too much of Americas wealth is in housing is laughable. for most Americans this is the only way to accumulate wealth. Perhaps Mr Will missed the memo that this country has negative savings? It's pretty difficult to save as your paycheck is getting smaller. I also have to ask just by what measure Mr. Will defines growth? To say that companies are profitable and got that way by laying off all their American employees is legitimate growth might be accurate. But it doesn't do a damn thing for American citizens. There has been no growth by my measure since Bush took office. Everyone of their numbers to support that position are now being called into question. Our economy has been reduced to everyone on Wall st selling stocks, bonds, options, CDOs or positions to each other, while patting themselves on their respective backs as our middle class disappears. All of this happening while our government looks the other way.

Sailaway, you seem to forget that government is responsible above all else, to their citizens... not to lobbies or corporations. They are not the same thing. As Valiente has pointed out, this is a point that has been refuted by recent administrations.

All in all this is a perfect example of a sailaway post.

Ultimately, time decides which of our positions is both truthful and valid. Your pollyanna approach in this thread is just that. By telling everyone who will read your posts that our economy is just fine, doesn't make it so. We are rapidly approaching the point that everything I've typed in this thread has now come to pass. Although your posts have been elequent at times, their sophmoric content has never been based in fact.

I have consistantly pointed out that we have a weak economy and poor leadership. That the collapse of housing would lead us to recession,and that republicans have lead us here. On the other hand you have consistantly ridiculed my position by saying the leadership is great and economy solid.

The problem I have always had with your posts is that you substitute attacks on me for facts which refute my position. So be it. While this may make you feel better, I'm still trying to figure out exactly what you've been right about. Not a darn thing as far as I can tell.

At this point the market has decided, the die cast. Your track record of being on the wrong side of the facts is now complete.

This thread is now mute. Market crash...Are we here yet?

Yes

I look forward to reading your posts in other threads.

[sailhog]

Dow's down 330! Yeah, baby!

You can already see how the market is going to correct itself. I just heard Cramer shouting that we are in an "dramatic deflationary environment." He said this an hour AFTER the Fed announced a 3/4 pt. rate cut -- exactly the opposite of what's supposed to happen. Oil is down $2.50, and is expected to s--- the bed over the next months for lack of demand. Inflation, the thing everyone has been kicking and screaming, is suddenly dead. I've never understood the stagflation idea. Stag kills flation.

Free financial advice for True Blue: Dump every dollar you make on the sale of your boat in an index fund when the Dow hits 11,000. Buy a $2,000 J-24, sail it this summer, and then buy the boat of your dreams in the spring of 2009.

[TrueBlue]

You obviously know your finances sh and thanks for that sage advice . . . online with both Smith Barney and my yacht broker right now!

[sailhog]

You have to admit... you're in a very enviable position even though it means parting with your heart's darling...

[TrueBlue]

I suppose you're right, but if I was really smart there would be no mention from me at all about this impending sale . . . could be cursing myself and lose the sale after the survey. The buyer may even be a SailNet member, decided he wanted my boat but is now getting second thoughts about it.

Never could keep my trap shut.

[chucklesR]

The sky is falling - on normal folks who play their investments close and conservative and don't speculate; once again the fed's will bail out the speculators (read campaign contributors) with tax dollars that will all go to wasted crap and not one serious long term project. Did the airline bailout after 9/11 make one difference except ensuring none of the CEO's had to drink tap water? Hell no.

Stock market crashes happen; anyone in the market for short term gain is a fool and an idiot. Two of my sons seriously thought that with a 1k etrade account at 18 they'd be millionaires by 25 playing the penny market and working their way up. Now at 24 and 26 they have not a penny left in their accounts. My investments meanwhile are safe, sound and slowly growing (bonds, both public and private, tax free and taxable). Of course my federally paid navy retirement means I'll never be destitute but might be poor, so I'm safe no matter what happens elsewhere.

My other son went with real estate - has two houses (one multi unit with 4apartments and a store front) and a condo in the DC commute area (he's 27). Owes 1.2 million on 750k of current value property. Makes 2k a month over mortgages, including his salary. If he holds on he'll make it but at a NORMAL appreciation of 3% per year (not the bubble crap) it will be a while. Now that seems fine, but he couldn't get a loan to fix a furnance if it broke and would be eating ramin noodles if a renter moved out.

Think the bail out will send any money his way - hell no. Think I'll see any money on the 300k I owe on my 550k house (appraised in Oct 07).
Hell no.

[wind_magic]

There has been a lot of people buying cash out there.

My thoughts ..

If this is finally the end of the speculative bubble it's a good day, a good week, and it'll be a good few years. This thing has gone on for so many years now and is responsible for so much hubris in American society that I for one will be relieved to see it end. It would be nice to be in an environment where you could buy stocks based on merit again, sometimes even for a dividend, and see an end to the wild speculation in stock prices for a time. It would be nice to see young couples be able to judge a house on it's quality in relation to it's price and not have to bid against speculators who have watched one too many episodes of house flipping shows on television. People should have a place to raise their children without the specter of impossible amounts of debt hanging over them. It would be nice to see normal people regain the respect that putting in a hard day of work deserves and not have them wandering around in the shadows of all of the McMillionaires who judge them as being stupid or foolish for not making a quick buck. There is so much waste and inefficiency built into the system right now - waste in lending, in personal spending, savings, everywhere, that a recession would clear a lot of it out and make way for new growth that has a more firm footing on solid ground. Of course its hard medicine and could take years to happen, but it is out there, somewhere.

The fantasy just cannot go on forever, it's an illusion for the most part ... at some point there has to be real decisions made about how the population of the United States is actually going to take care of a large number of retirees, about what a working family needs in real wages to make a family, about people's quality of life, etc. We've gotten so wrapped up in the numbers, billions, trillions, that people have forgotten that when it really comes down to it someone will have to physically be in the same room as an older person to feed them, change their bed sheets, etc, and that this younger person will deserve to have a home of their own to raise their own family and someday grow old with dignity themselves. If the bubble ends now, great, but if the Fed manages to keep the party going I hope that it burns itself out quickly so that we can suffer the hangover and then continue on down the path to a brighter tomorrow. There are so many people out there right now who know in their hearts that they are in difficult positions even if they can't admit it to themselves, people who are waiting for the other shoe to drop, and I hope that shoe drops for them soon so that they can get through it and get on with their lives with a light heart. Dragging this thing out is not helping anyone. Giving people just enough of a bailout to prolong their suffering as they wait for that adjustable rate mortgage to put them upside down is not helping. Trying to prop the stock market up is not helping. Trying to transfer bad debt from one place to another or hide it without writing it off is not helping. None of this crap is helping. All it does is just make people suffer longer and put off the inevitable.

As sappy as it sounds I truly believe there is a world out there on the other side of all of this non-sense that is bright and good for people's spirits. Beyond all of the greed and high thinking there is a world of people who can smile on any given day just because the sun is out and they are happy for no particular reason at all.

[sailingdog]

Unfortunately, the government is very good at bailing out businesses that make less than stellar decisions... Chrysler, the Saving & Loans industry, many of the airlines, the sub-prime mortgage market, etc. Why should these companies worry about not making mistakes if they think there is a decent chance the government will step in and fix their screwups... There is little or no responsibility or accountability...

[chucklesR]

Unlike most of the posters on this long and involved thread I'm not a economic guru. I know what works for me.
What works for me is if I borrow money I pay for it.
What works for me is I don't loan money to bad risks or family (just give it instead)
What works for me is I don't count on money until it's mine.
What works for me is I don't buy things I can't pay for without gar-run-teed money (my retirement check) - not counting my mortgage of course.
What works for me is I keep 1 months of bills in my 5.4% savings and another 2 months in accounts I can get to with 30 days notice.
What works for me is we live off one paycheck and invest the other bigger paycheck.
What works for me is I place no value in 'paper' money (i.e., I bought my house for 350, the next year it appraised at 550, that's paper money and I don't take loans based on that). My 401k, IRA, bonds etc. are paper money until the day I convert them.

What works for me is I don't listen to any of the talking heads.

What always works for me is I ignore people like Rick who scream out about the next cataclysm around the corner or other extreme one sided claptrap.
His blantant points of foolishness such CPI not including gas and fuel oil(previously corrected) and claims of tent cities in florida - the tent cities are there - google it. They are NOT because of foreclosures; they've been there all along you idiot! and silly statements that a bank will not foreclose on a 400 dollar a month shortfall - lack a reality that only extremely narrow minded none realistic people attain.

[hellosailor]

" Did the airline bailout after 9/11 make one difference except ensuring none of the CEO's had to drink tap water? Hell no."
You know that one still riles me. I was hoping to see United and AA go bankrupt from lawsuits, and ElAl and Air India (both known for great security, actually, including 100% armed air marshals and locked cabin doors) taking over their routes, giving domestic US aviation a bit more color. Fair's fair.

The tent cities aren't just in Florida, and they've been around, come and gone, for over a hundred years.