Market crash: are we there yet ?

[xort]

hey rich, I thought you were done here?

[chucklesR]

Rick
What it explains is there was no real economic reason for the drop monday before last, it was caused in part by one operator, operating in bad faith and his puts caused a panic that spread. This per Times reporting on this issue.
While it is sad that one errant person can cause this effect that is the global.
Quote from the article:
Société Générale executives simply suspended Kerviel — perhaps to avoid panic selling. Executives then quietly unwound his disastrous transactions on the financial markets over the course of three days — so helping to send markets plummeting around the world
End quote

Surprizingly, we seem to agree on the stimulus package, although I'm not sure if for the same reason. It will help to some degree as some of the money generated by selling S. Korean manufactored goods will trickle down to the U.S economy it will not have any thing more than a temporary effect. True stimulus comes in the form of growth; build something, don't buy something.

Sadly, most americans do not understand that one can not spend their way to wealth, you must save your way to wealth.

[cardiacpaul]

Date Open High Low Close
25-Jan-08 12,391.70 12,590.69 12,103.61 12,207.17
24-Jan-08 12,272.69 12,522.82 12,114.83 12,378.61
23-Jan-08 11,969.08 12,339.10 11,530.12 12,270.17
22-Jan-08 12,092.72 12,167.42 11,508.74 11,971.19
18-Jan-08 12,159.94 12,441.85 11,953.71 12,099.30
17-Jan-08 12,467.05 12,597.85 12,089.38 12,159.21
16-Jan-08 12,476.81 12,699.05 12,294.48 12,466.16
15-Jan-08 12,777.50 12,777.50 12,425.92 12,501.11
14-Jan-08 12,613.78 12,866.10 12,596.95 12,778.15

Jan-07 12,459.54 12,685.54 12,313.01 12,621.69

amazing... after 3 days of "crashes" the Dow actually posted a net gain last week.

over the past two weeks a total of about 500 points lost
since the first of the year... total 800 points.

just for grins.. from jan1 '07 to friday of last week
400 points down... yup, theres trouble for ya.

Where do I get that sky falling umbrella again?


more grins
Jan-03 8,342.38 8,896.09 7,884.66 8,053.81
Jan-04 10,452.74 10,748.81 10,341.19 10,488.07
Jan-05 10,783.75 10,892.67 10,317.10 10,489.94
Jan-06 10,718.30 11,099.15 10,607.36 10,864.86
Jan-07 12,459.54 12,685.54 12,313.01 12,621.69

So its gotta be bushs fault that the DJIA jumped from 8000 points to a little over 12,000 points..
Just why wasn't rick bitching when the DJ has a 1750 point gain in 2006? Hmmm?

I know whats coming next... "The DJIA isn't a good economic indicator"... because it doesn't support the sky is falling ideal.
yea, its up and down. I think thats called "trading" and "taking a profit" right? maybe its just me.

[chucklesR]

CP,
Quit being such a disagreeable sort. Debate is over, the planet is getting warmer, the stock market is crashing and people are losing money hand over fist causing tent cities to spring up around the world.

Buy stock in companies that are building tents!

To preclude comment, the above posted with tongue firmly in cheek (i.e. as sarcasm).

[hellosailor]

Sailaway-
MILTON F., yes. (Slap, slap. So much for bedtime.)

"Yet we never seem to call the Bill Gates, the Archer Daniels-Midland, or NEA robber barons." Billy G. may be a smarmy used car salesman, conman, and outright thief, he doesn't have the courage to be a robber baron. Nor the style. ADM...well, they're a conglomerate board, a board can't be a baron no matter how many invisible men sit on it.

You don't hear much talk about BillyG these days, but for the first 20 years his company ran, you'd hear PLENTY of techies talk about him, and it certainly wasn't to credit him with morales, ethics, or ingenuity. And they'd all caution you to count your fingers after you shook hands with him--if you did. The old robber barons would have just said "They WERE your fingers, they're mine now because I can." Gates would have weasled and said "fingers? What fingers? Oh, well, if you mean...." like a politician. Like when he announced what his foundation would do and spend--and threw out the lump sum, as if it was a lump sum rather than a 10-year sum that could accrue from annual interest without touching the real money.

It's like people say Jack Kennedy and Bill Clinton were both whoremasters. Yeah, could be. But one of them put on a good show and didn't get caught with his pants down in the Oval Office. Like they don't say in the hash houses, "Presentation counts."

Conming back on point: "Yeah, I'm reading the articles about the maintenance workers who bought $250,000 houses and now cannot afford the ARM. Did those people think that the entire laws of economics had been repealed?" Yaknow, I know a guy who is a commercial tradesman. Not a sharp dresser, not fast thinker, and the first impression he gives is that he's a lunkhead. You wait a while and then you notice, he sees things one time and then remembers them. He takes a little while, but he sees through things--and sin't fooled by the first glance. He's not 'fast' but he's brighter in many ways than folks who seem bright.
All those folks who weren't making enough money to pay a mortgage note? MOST OF THE LENDERS KNEW THAT. And that's why the class action suits are going to start, and some attorneys are going to make a lot of money in the usual class action group gets nothing routine. One of those couple was on 60 Minutes last night. He said no, we didn't get a lawyer to read anything, the broker told us the payment would be...and the market was constantly going up so we knew...and the bank said....And his wife, who seemed reasonably sharp, just nodded the whole time and agreed.
Folks literally can't be bothered to read or question, and the sad fact is that they are still the rubes that PTBarnum knew and loved so well. The sadder fact is that our society, despite creeping socialism, refuses to take steps to protect these folks. (Or, the flip side: It ain't their job to protect the sheep and starve the wolves. Ergh, robber barons. Whole other argument.)

Supposedly there were some 406 million books sold in the US last year, that's probably an average of 1.2 per citizen old enough to make purchases/read. Even worse, the number of people who didn't buy or read a single book last year is way into double-digit percents. Read a contract? ROFL. "How much is the monthly?" I can only shake my head and wonder, where they get the down payment money from. And now I know--no down payment required, either! Incredible.
"There but for the grace of god go I."

Goes to show you the value of a really really good Ponzi scheme.

[cardiacpaul]

i kinda like my tent, thanks

[bestfriend]

SELL!, SELL!, SELL! So I can BUY!, BUY!, BUY!

[cardiacpaul]

open high low close
28-Jan-08 12,205.71 12,423.81 12,061.42 12,383.89
25-Jan-08 12,391.70 12,590.69 12,103.61 12,207.17

Buck Owens and Roy Clark wrote ricks theme music, sing along, everybody!!!!

Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Deep, dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all
Gloom, despair, and agony on me

Given your predictions, how did you ever make it in high finance?
Dow up 172 points today!
where do i gitz me one of those sky is falling umbrellas agin? hmmm?

Its gotta be bushs fault. Him and those dam republicans, i'm tellin' ya, they're just no good. Him and Cheney, yea, thats it... the rat bast@rds, string 'em up.

[hellosailor]

CPaul, have you ever read Dave Barry in the Miami Herald? Interesting piece he did yesterday about the Democrats and how this year they are screwing themselves AGAIN but haven't found a way to blame it on the Republicans. Yet.
Today is primary day in Florida, but apparently the Florida Dem. Comm. wanted to move up their primary day and did so without the National Comm. pemission, so their primary results will be thrown out and simply NOT COUNTED by the national party.
No dimpled chads, governor, or supreme court needed, the Democratic Party itself is totally throwing out their own Florida party members votes this time around, they'll have to vote for whoever else the rest of the country offers them. Ain't it grand?!
Yeah, I can't wait to hear about how they blame this one on the Bush Family Conspiracy.

Geo. Bush: The best candidate the Democratic Party had to offer, twice in a row. (I wonder if they put targets on their shoe tips, or if they're simply that good at shooting themselves in the feet? Jefferson must be rolling in his grave.)

[chucklesR]

Unfortunately, the GDP going up by 4.9% a quarter just isn't news for a liberally leaning news network.
Equally unfortunate is that a reduction in GDP to ONLY 3 % or so is seen as a reason to say the sky is falling, recession is looming on the horizon etc..Like Paul said in another thread, it's not a recession until it's a decline for 2 straight quarters, and we haven't seen one yet.

Fear mongering sensationalistic crap to sell commercials.

It's not over yet, and the housing market may in fact drive the rest of it down, politico's out there sprinkly bacon bits (600 bucks a head is a bacon bit to folks paying 50k a year in taxes) and telling everyone to spend spend spend to get / keep our economy going is at best a temporary politically motivated (look I did something!) ineffectual move like putting a bandaid on an amputation.

Don't step into the lifeboat until you have to step up into it - doesn't mean don't have a lifeboat, and doesn't mean you can't preload it with your grab bag.